Game 14: Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals, Game Thread and Ichthyomancy

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3 game series vs Nationals @ Nationals Park

Miami Marlins
@ Washington Nationals

Friday, Apr 20, 2012, 7:05 PM EDT
Nationals Park

Carlos Zambrano vs Ross Detwiler

Partly cloudy. Winds blowing out to left field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 70.

Complete Coverage >

Sat 04/21 1:05 PM EDT
Sun 04/22 1:35 PM EDT

The Miami Marlins are on a roll, having won five out of their six games in their recent home stand. Their offense is clicking, having hit .273/.334/.419 since the opening weekend. The pitching staff has improved, though it could be doing better. Nevertheless, the Marlins are having recent success, and just about the only team in the National League that can go up against that is the equally red-hot Washington Nationals team. The Nats lead the NL East and were the first team in the NL East to ten wins, and the Marlins are coming to visit for a three-game set.

Pitching Matchup

Proj Win% Proj ERA FIP ERA Marlins Nationals ERA FIP Proj ERA Proj Win%
.451 4.39 4.39 3.75 Zambrano Detwiler 0.90 3.57 4.50 .440

Carlos Zambrano will head to the mound for his third start of the season, having had mixed results in his first two starts. On the one hand, his 3.75 ERA would be more than acceptable for most Marlins fans, but he has pitched significantly worse than that when you look at his peripherals. His 4.39 FIP indicates that his walk rate has just been too high (eight walks in 12 innings), especially for only a decent strikeout rate. In addition, he has only allowed a .226 BABIP, and you know hitters are going to be placing balls in play a bit better in the future.

The Nationals counter with Ross Detwiler, who has pitched well enough to supplant longtime Nats starter John Lannan in the fifth rotation spot. Still, Detwiler is the worst of the Nationals starters, and his 4.50 projected ERA shows a good idea of what to expect, though it is not much worse than Zambrano's 4.39 mark.

Lineup

Order Player Proj wOBA vs. LHP
1 Jose Reyes .362
2 Emilio Bonifacio .305
3 Hanley Ramirez .375
4 Giancarlo Stanton .401
5 Gaby Sanchez .366
6 Austin Kearns .304
7 John Buck .321
8 Donnie Murphy .308

UPDATE: Lineup is updated here. Austin Kearns gets to start so that Logan Morrison can get some rest, and the Marlins will throw Donnie Murphy out there again at second base, as Omar Infante continues to rest a sore groin. Giancarlo Stanton rightfully moves back into the cleanup spot due to the change in lineup.

Notes

- Federal Baseball's Patrick Reddington details the investigation on where exactly the Stephen Strasburg innings limit idea came from.

- An Ichthyomancy note: since we're at Nationals Park, you are allowed to pick the Presidents Race for one (1) point. Apparently, that is something that was done before, and who am I to break such a fun tradition. So if you'd like to submit your picks with the presidents and you already submitted, just reply to your own pick with a presidents race selection. Go Teddy!

Bold Prediction: Marlins def. Nationals 6-4

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