FanPost

Marlins Starting Pitching Comparables

Here is a look at some of the top comparables to the Marlins top starting pitchers: Josh Johnson, Anibal Sanchez, Mark Buehrle, Ricky Nolasco and Carlos Zambrano as per the MLB Depth Charts website.

In this exercise I used 2010-2011 data, looking at the skilled stats of K/9, BB/9 and GB/FB, while coming up with a similarity score based on these three stats for each Marlins starting pitcher. The cutoff was having pitched at least 150 IP as a starter (exception for Matt Moore and Stephen Strasburg, Fans Projections FG) over the last two years. Here is the top 25 list for each Marlins starter. There is some bias when comparing NL pitchers with AL pitchers due to the slightly inflated strikeout rate for NL pitchers who don't have to pitch to a DH, so feel free to make a mental adjustment for those pitchers. If you wanted to take something like this to the next level, you could look at age, contract status, handedness etc... but I've chosen to look at these three stats which are highly controlled by a pitchers skill level.



First thing that stands out are the great numbers and comparables for both Johnson and Sanchez. Nolasco has some pretty decent numbers too, I really like the low walk rate. I did a double take when I saw Buehrle's peripherals. That is a pretty poor K rate, the low walk rate does help offset it a little bit and more importantly (not shown) is his consistency when it comes to eating innings. Zambrano struggles with the high BB rate, giving him a rather unimpressive list of comparables.

Rank Name K/9 BB/9 GB/FB Name K/9 BB/9 GB/FB
Josh Johnson 8.93 2.51 1.39 Anibal Sanchez 8.26 3.08 1.21
1 Zack Greinke 8.78 2.30 1.37 David Price 8.44 2.96 1.16
2 Mat Latos 8.88 2.66 1.07 Max Scherzer 8.25 2.90 1.02
3 Cole Hamels 8.62 2.24 1.37 Wandy Rodriguez 8.02 3.19 1.39
4 Justin Verlander 8.88 2.42 0.98 Josh Beckett 8.17 2.72 1.09
5 Felix Hernandez 8.45 2.55 1.72 Tommy Hanson 8.52 2.76 0.99
6 Tommy Hanson 8.52 2.76 0.99 Colby Lewis 8.19 2.71 0.77
7 Matt Moore 9.25 3.00 1.13 Matt Garza 7.77 2.80 1.04
8 Clayton Kershaw 9.46 2.78 1.04 Ian Kennedy 7.92 2.70 0.91
9 Yovani Gallardo 9.34 3.07 1.29 CC Sabathia 8.09 2.56 1.51
10 David Price 8.44 2.96 1.16 Chris Capuano 7.88 2.61 1.05
11 Michael Pineda 9.11 2.89 0.81 C.J. Wilson 7.92 3.52 1.51
12 Adam Wainwright 8.32 2.19 1.68 Ryan Dempster 8.60 3.62 1.27
13 James Shields 8.21 2.29 1.18 Derek Holland 7.61 3.20 1.30
14 Josh Beckett 8.17 2.72 1.09 Jonathon Niese 7.78 2.89 1.65
15 CC Sabathia 8.09 2.56 1.51 Homer Bailey 7.69 2.73 1.07
16 Max Scherzer 8.25 2.90 1.02 Felix Hernandez 8.45 2.55 1.72
17 Stephen Strasburg 9.75 2.15 1.35 Mat Latos 8.88 2.66 1.07
18 Anibal Sanchez 8.26 3.08 1.21 Ubaldo Jimenez 8.65 3.73 1.41
19 Jered Weaver 8.43 2.15 0.71 James Shields 8.21 2.29 1.18
20 Colby Lewis 8.19 2.71 0.77 Francisco Liriano 8.62 3.64 1.66
21 Tim Lincecum 9.45 3.40 1.50 Jorge de la Rosa 8.22 3.84 1.55
22 Jon Lester 9.17 3.56 1.65 Tom Gorzelanny 7.91 3.77 0.89
23 Chris Capuano 7.88 2.61 1.05 Chad Billingsley 7.66 3.63 1.44
24 Madison Bumgarner 7.9 2.05 1.30 Josh Johnson 8.93 2.51 1.39
25 Ian Kennedy 7.92 2.7 0.91 Felipe Paulino 8.37 3.97 1.13

Rank Name K/9 BB/9 GB/FB Name K/9 BB/9 GB/FB
Mark Buehrle 4.50 2.04 1.23 Ricky Nolasco 7.30 1.91 1.22
1 Kyle Kendrick 4.42 2.24 1.17 Bartolo Colon 7.18 2.18 1.24
2 Tommy Hunter 4.69 1.98 1.01 Jordan Zimmermann 7.07 1.92 0.99
3 Jeff Francis 4.95 1.96 1.38 Hiroki Kuroda 7.23 2.19 1.41
4 Joel Pineiro 4.69 2.17 1.71 Roy Oswalt 7.34 2.27 1.25
5 Bronson Arroyo 4.97 2.26 0.99 Daniel Hudson 7.18 2.18 0.98
6 Rick Porcello 4.91 2.19 1.65 Joe Blanton 6.97 2.15 1.22
7 Carl Pavano 4.45 1.56 1.64 Shaun Marcum 7.34 2.27 0.88
8 Livan Hernandez 4.95 2.56 1.07 Dan Haren 7.76 1.66 1.05
9 Jeff Karstens 5.19 1.82 1.22 Chris Carpenter 7.05 2.25 1.59
10 Brad Bergesen 4.56 2.79 1.20 Gavin Floyd 7.15 2.44 1.36
11 Rodrigo Lopez 5.13 2.50 0.97 Madison Bumgarner 7.90 2.05 1.30
12 Josh Tomlin 4.98 1.51 0.82 Jake Peavy 7.59 2.43 0.99
13 Brad Penny 4.13 2.69 1.58 Matt Cain 7.20 2.51 0.91
14 Joe Saunders 4.81 2.84 1.23 Ted Lilly 7.55 2.21 0.64
15 Kyle Lohse 5.3 2.47 1.13 Brett Myers 6.93 2.53 1.41
16 Nick Blackburn 4.17 2.76 1.80 Philip Humber 6.59 2.16 1.31
17 Jeremy Guthrie 5.34 2.48 0.99 Alexi Ogando 6.68 2.32 0.92
18 Zach Duke 5.23 2.66 1.50 Scott Baker 7.99 2.24 0.80
19 Dallas Braden 5.47 2.05 0.99 John Danks 6.97 2.72 1.18
20 Mike Pelfrey 4.95 3.00 1.40 Homer Bailey 7.69 2.73 1.07
21 Dustin Moseley 4.74 3.05 1.51 Chris Capuano 7.88 2.61 1.05
22 Doug Fister 5.55 1.62 1.43 James Shields 8.21 2.29 1.18
23 Freddy Garcia 5.47 2.65 0.98 Matt Garza 7.77 2.80 1.04
24 Paul Maholm 5.15 2.90 1.72 Brandon McCarthy 6.49 1.32 1.45
25 R.A. Dickey 5.57 2.24 1.74 Ian Kennedy 7.92 2.70 0.91

Rank Name K/9 BB/9 GB/FB
Carlos Zambrano 7.10 4.11 1.13
1 A.J. Burnett 7.60 3.85 1.35
2 Kyle Davies 6.47 3.89 0.98
3 Daisuke Matsuzaka 7.53 4.55 0.69
4 Brian Matusz 7.23 3.47 0.74
5 James McDonald 7.80 3.90 0.86
6 Barry Zito 6.46 3.74 0.84
7 Chad Billingsley 7.66 3.63 1.44
8 Chris Narveson 7.25 3.30 1.05
9 J.A. Happ 7.53 4.80 0.80
10 Jhoulys Chacin 7.66 4.04 1.83
11 Tom Gorzelanny 7.91 3.77 0.89
12 Ryan Vogelsong 6.99 3.14 1.34
13 Derek Holland 7.61 3.20 1.30
14 C.J. Wilson 7.92 3.52 1.51
15 Edwin Jackson 7.26 3.09 1.47
16 Clay Buchholz 6.32 3.44 1.50
17 Dillon Gee 6.04 3.95 1.36
18 Ricky Romero 7.28 3.35 1.90
19 Gio Gonzalez 8.23 4.09 1.40
20 Clayton Richard 6.15 3.46 1.42
21 Wade LeBlanc 6.47 3.15 0.82
22 Jake Arrieta 5.94 4.38 1.14
23 Aaron Harang 6.60 3.03 0.96
24 Javier Vazquez 7.24 2.97 0.74
25 Jorge de la Rosa 8.22 3.84 1.55

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