Josh Johnson isn't an Elite Pitcher?

by craig on Apr 26, 2011 10:01 AM EDT in News and Rumors

That isn't exactly what Jeff Sullivan is getting at, but it does come across that way. However, the bottom line is that he is not convinced Josh Johnson should be considered for elite status.

For his entire Major League career, Josh Johnson has called Sun Life Stadium home. And Sun Life Stadium happens to have the highest strikeout park factor in baseball. Everybody should be familiar with the concept of park factors. It's easy to understand why Coors Field inflates home runs. It's easy to understand why Fenway Park inflates doubles. It isn't so easy to understand why Sun Life Stadium inflates strikeouts, but the evidence is there that it does, and that it does to a significant degree.

OMG, give me a break. That study doesn't differentiate between home team strikeouts and road team strikeouts. In 2008 when it was performed, the Marlins lineup consisted of Dan Uggla, Mike Jacobs, Jorge Cantu and Jeremy Hermida who all contributed tons of strikeouts in the 81 games they played there that season and not to mention all of the previous seasons.

Also it isn't surprising that a pitcher will perform better on his home mound.

MLB Overall (2010 season)

Home: 19% strikeouts
Road: 18% strikeouts

Josh Johnson (career)

Home: 25% strikeouts
Road: 19% strikeouts

At home, Johnson has long been incredibly difficult to hit. On the road, his strikeout rate dips close to the league average.

And why wouldn't he rack up big numbers in the park he is most familiar with? Should he be penalized because others haven't learned to take advantaged of their home parks?

Another thing: when did strikeout rates become a litmus test for being an elite pitcher?

Jeff continues on in the article and brings up career FIP at home and on the road, never taking into account that JJ's career numbers start when he was 21 years-old or the fact he is now 27 and healthy. Weighing every year the same is a fallacy.

He concludes with the following.

Josh Johnson is most definitely an underrated young pitcher. I don't think there's any questioning the notion that his playing in Florida has been an obstacle to his getting the attention his results would warrant. But elite? I'm not yet convinced. The ability's all there, but I'll need to see him show it in more than one ballpark.

Hey, Jeff. The Marlins are coming to Safeco this season and if everything works out just right, you may see it live.

Final Note: I like Jeff, we have exchange emails in the past and he does good work. So I think I can get away with this, if not, I will be writing my final post tomorrow.

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What a silly article. And he basically contradicts himself in that final paragraph:

“I don’t think there’s any questioning the notion that his playing in Florida has been an obstacle to his getting the attention his results would warrant….”

And then: “But elite? I’m not yet convinced. The ability’s all there, but I’ll need to see him show it in more than one ballpark.”

So right there he all but says JJ isn’t elite because of who he plays for, but it’s wrong for the national media to undervalue him because of who he plays for?!

by LondonDave on Apr 26, 2011 10:14 AM EDT reply actions

Seriously?

What a load of crap. I don’t buy park factors making ANY difference in K’s. Mounds are 60 feet, 6 inches in ALL 30 parks. Besides, JJ had a no-no going for 7 1/3 in ATLANTA anyways. These saber-magicians read too much into stats sometimes and to propose a park’s size/shape/color/smell/elevation/ownership has any bearing on where a pitcher puts a pitch and whether or not a batter swings. Hogwash.

Florida Marlins: 2011 Wild Card Winners

by marlinsfan315 on Apr 26, 2011 10:57 AM EDT reply actions

Oh yeah....

I told Jeff as much too. I challenged him to give me a rationale, other than luck, that a park has ANY influence on K’s. JJ leads the league in ERA, WHIP, Opponent AVG/OBP/SLG, and in the top 10 in many other categories.If this doesn’t qualify as elite, I don’t know what does.

Florida Marlins: 2011 Wild Card Winners

by marlinsfan315 on Apr 26, 2011 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions

He's overcorrecting

Obviously JJ pitches better at Sun Life, so does everyone else. Sure, he’s no Halladay yet, but to say he’s not as underrated as some of his proponents would have you think seems a bit like splitting hairs to me.

MarlinsDiehards.com

by dave6834 on Apr 26, 2011 11:34 AM EDT reply actions

Picks for tonight

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Hanley
Marlins never trail, win by at least 3 runs

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by colombo259 on Apr 26, 2011 1:19 PM EDT reply actions

Actually, there is a significant reason why SunLife would have a higher K rate...

The humidity. Humid conditions tends to make the ball heavier, meaning that breaking balls will have a lot more sink and “bite” to them. It’s the opposite effect from Coors Field (though not nearly as strong), where the conditions are very dry, so curveballs and such do not break as much.

Obviously, this isn’t to say that Sullivan is correct, but there is a reason why Florida has a high K rate, and not just because we have teams that hack away.

by dcfish on Apr 26, 2011 1:47 PM EDT reply actions

Still...

Despite all that, to use that as a basis to disqualify JJ from being an “elite” pitcher is ridiculous.

Florida Marlins: 2011 Wild Card Winners

by marlinsfan315 on Apr 26, 2011 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions

There absolutely is something to the park effect

And for Craig’s comment regarding the past study, StatCorner has park factors for K’s as well, updated through the 2010 season:

PARK FACTORS (LHB/RHB)
K: 111 / 112

As dcfish mentions, the humidity in SoFla makes the ball bite more than it would otherwise. It’s the same reason why there’s fewer K’s in Colorado as well. These effects ARE real, we just aren’t certain to what extent they are affecting play (PF’s are just regressed estimates).

JJ’s K/9 in 2009-2010 (his healthy, best seasons, excluding pre-injury years):
Home: 10.2
Road: 6.9

It doesn’t mean this is his true talent, but it does mean that this is what happened in the past. We would need to regress that to look for his true talent, but it IS a data point, and an interesting one at that.

As to those who said “JJ pitched really well in Atlanta last time out,” the response is that a lot of pitchers pitch really well in one game. We can’t judge him based on that game alone. Take his career in its entirety. And so far, the entirety of his career has had him pitch pretty significantly worse on the road (on the order of 4/5 of a run per nine innings worse in terms of FIP) in his career. There may be something to his argument.

The rest of the article is Jeff’s opinion, one that he’s entitled to. You make your own decision based on the data. This is definitely something worth looking into though, and just because you don’t agree with him saying “he may not be elite” doesn’t mean you should toss out his argument using data as being irrelevant. I think it may be.

Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog
Writer, Beyond the Box Score
Writer, Heater Magazine

by SFiercex4 on Apr 26, 2011 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions

When you take his career in it's entirety...

Do you take into account pre and post Tommy John? I believe he has pitched better following the surgery.

Florida Marlins: 2011 Wild Card Winners

by marlinsfan315 on Apr 26, 2011 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions

I showed the strikeout data from 2009-2010, which is after TJ surgery

As for home/road performance, I’m writing a piece with more data, but here’s the ERA split from 2009-2010:

Home: 2.12
Road: 3.55

Some of that may be the dimensions of the park, some of that may be this K effect. He’s clearly not pitched as well on the road than he has at home, and the split is larger than the observed league average split:

Home: 3.95
Road: 4.46

Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog
Writer, Beyond the Box Score
Writer, Heater Magazine

by SFiercex4 on Apr 26, 2011 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Oh yeah. I'm slow.

Didn’t catch the years you wrote the first time. Long day. Lol

Florida Marlins: 2011 Wild Card Winners

by marlinsfan315 on Apr 26, 2011 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Despite the split...

His road is still nearly a point better than average. Do most pitchers who come to Sun Life have a comperable change in ERA? Could jet lag be a factor?

Florida Marlins: 2011 Wild Card Winners

by marlinsfan315 on Apr 26, 2011 3:49 PM EDT reply actions

V is for "Volstad" and "Victory" picks

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By the way, if you put 2 V’s together, it’s a W :)

Florida Marlins: 2011 Wild Card Winners

by marlinsfan315 on Apr 26, 2011 5:12 PM EDT reply actions

Tuesday pix

11,714
G. Sanchez
Game Total: 3+ double plays

By the way, anyone want to buy LoMo’s cast? It’s on Ebay, and apparently the whole team signed it…

by dcfish on Apr 26, 2011 6:01 PM EDT reply actions

Tuesday picks

12,345
Stanton
Fish H>9

Your sig here.

by miramarjuice on Apr 26, 2011 6:04 PM EDT reply actions

Tuesday Picks

14,000
Hanley
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by GoNuckingFuts on Apr 26, 2011 6:23 PM EDT reply actions

He needs to do better he's got a lot of ground to make up

7 for 4 is better, right? That would be awesome.

Florida Marlins: 2011 Wild Card Winners

by marlinsfan315 on Apr 26, 2011 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Whatever happened to a guy just performing better at home, because that is where he is most comfortable. His routine is a lot more similar at home, etc, etc. Either way, JJ is the definition of elite. Ask any batter in the NL and they would agree. There are maybe a few pitchers they would prefer to face less. Halladay (when accompanied by his personal umpire) is equal with JJ in my opinion. But who else? Can’t think of more than a few even close.

by EverybodysDoingTheFish on Apr 26, 2011 11:51 PM EDT reply actions