Marlins considering reconfiguring batting order
by craig on Apr 14, 2011 2:28 PM EDT
in News and Rumors
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PrintThe Florida Marlins manager, Edwin Rodriguez, is giving some thought to reconfiguring the batting order.
Joe Capozzi gives the details.
Logan Morrison went into Wednesday leading the Marlins in walks (nine) and on-base percentage (.457), all from the middle of the batting order.
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"I would like to keep him in the run-producing position because he's such a good hitter and he hits righties (.333) or lefties (.313) very well," Rodriguez said.
"But then again, who knows down the line? If it comes to that, yeah, we (might) have to make a change. If we want to get something, we'll have to give (up) something."
Chris Coghlan, Omar Infante and Hanley Ramirez -- the Marlins' main top three hitters in the batting order - went into Wednesday batting a collective 9-for-44 (.219).
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The Marlins' most consistent hitter has been Gaby Sanchez, who had reached safely in all 10 games this year going into Wednesday night's game. He led the team with a .324 (12-for-37) batting average.
Edwin should really adjust the batting order.
There has been a change in the makeup of team and now, it really behooves the Marlins to make the needed adjustments by realigning the batting order.
In the recent past the Fish where a "bloop and a blast" team. Now, they metamorphosized into a "get 'em on, get 'em over and get 'em in" team.
Back in the day when they were a "bloop and a blast" team it didn't really matter all that much where the sluggers hit. Oh sure, Cantu should've been moved down to sixth in the lineup. Letting Dan Uggla and Cody Ross get more plate appearances behind the on-base guys. But that really didn't matter, when you have everyone in the infield hitting about 30 home runs a season. They could drive in a run with no one on base.
Times change.
The Marlins are no longer that kind of team. And it is now imperative that ones who get on-base most often get the most plate appearances.
Yes, batting order is over analyzed but given how the Marlins are now structured, it should be optimized. The on-base guys should be at the top of the lineup.
For every move up in the lineup it is worth about 18 more plate appearances over the course of the season. In other words, when a hitter hits first, he will get roughly 90 more plate appearances than someone hitting sixth. From my projections, that means the best batting order is Logan Morrison, Hanley Ramirez, Gaby Sanchez, Mike Stanton, Chris Coghlan, Omar Infante, Donnie Murphy and John Buck. Get the most consistent hitters the most plate appearances, and let the guys behind them drive 'em with singles, doubles or the occasional home run.
I'm very happy that Edwin is at least considering the move. Burying LoMo and Gaby in the fifth and sixth slots is not the way to go with this team.
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I've never understood why MLB batting orders are almost the same everyday
If i was a manager i would be putting the guys who are on hot streaks at the top of the order or RBI slots and the guys that are in slumps at the bottom.
Hanley is in a slump. He should not be batting in the most coveted batting order position of third just because he is the best hitter on the team when he is on his “A game”. If he is, yes he should be in the 3 slot, but not when he is batting .194!
Because "slumps" aren't a real thing?
It would be one thing if we had any reason to believe that Hanley was suddenly a .194 hitter now. But as far as we know, he’s just had some bad luck, and can be expected to bat like Hanley in the future.
Bass and sharks are BOTH fish.
thats what i just said
but it would make more sense to move him to the bottom of the order now until his bat picks back up, then move him back up
Well, no.
Because his bat is just as “picked up” now as it is when he’s hit .400 in the last 10 games. In baseball, short-term past success is not a reliable predictor of short-term future success.
Unless he’s injured, or is working through some kind of mechanical problem with his swing — neither of which is true as far as I know — he’s just as likely as he ever is to have a good game tonight or tomorrow or whenever. The only thing shuffling him around in the lineup would accomplish isgetting him into a less effective spot if he DOES hit well.
This isn’t the same as the Logan thing. The Logan thing is because there’s reason to believe he’s a better hitter than they thought he was before the season. Nobody thinks Hanley isn’t still Hanley.
Bass and sharks are BOTH fish.
ok well i guess we have to agree to disagree
because i strongly believe there are such things as slumps which is why hanley is batting .194 what reason do u think he is hitting so poorly if you dont believe in slumps?
we arent talking about the flip of a coin here
where it has a 50% chance of landing on heads no matter what it landed on the prior flip.
Actually, we are.
There’s been extensive research done, and there’s no statistically significant correlation between a player’s performance in one game and his performance in the next game over the course of a season.
I know it seems that way, and it’s an enticing myth to believe it, but it actually IS a lot like coin flips, in that… well, if you flip a coin a lot of times, you’re going to have streaks where it comes up heads or tails several times in a row. And even if you know it’s random, it can be tough to think of it that way.
Bass and sharks are BOTH fish.
according to your theroy
a player who is 0-50 against a certain pitcher has just as much of a chance of going 4-5 as a player who is 30-50 against that same pitcher
0-50? 30-50?
I think batter-pitcher history is mostly garbage as a predictive tool, because there’s not generally a significant sample size for them, but something extreme like that would be relevant.
But if you DID have enough instances of a specific batter facing a specific pitcher, that would matter. That might carry over, because it’s a specific circumstance (the batter facing a specific arsenal of pitches) that repeats itself.
“Hey, this happened a few days ago” isn’t a specific circumstance — it’s a coincidence of time.
And to repeat, this isn’t some thing I made up. This has been examined mathematically. Do you have any evidence to support YOUR notion, or are you just going on gut feeling and old wives’ tales?
Bass and sharks are BOTH fish.
It's not that slumps and hot streaks aren't real
It’s just that we have no idea whether a certain one is or is not, and we have no clue when it will end. So you’d just be potentially wasting Hanley by sending him down two or three games and losing good PA’s trying to find out whether he “broke out.” It’s not a good idea.
Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog
Writer, Beyond the Box Score
Writer, Heater Magazine
so keep him in the 3 spot for 3 weeks while he bats under .200
compared to moving him down until he has a few multi hit games is better?
thats a waste of about 18 games
But you're not certain that he is any better or worse now than he was a few weeks ago
And even if he was worse, you’re not certain when it’s going to end. Meanwhile, your best guess is that he’s just as good as before and you’re sending him down in the lineup in favor of someone like Greg Dobbs?
In addition, you might have to consider the player’s own chemistry-related problems. I’ve heard players don’t like being sent down in the lineup, that may not help him bust out of any potential slump.
Essentially, there’s no reason to move Hanley down just because he may or may not be worse than he usually is right now.
Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog
Writer, Beyond the Box Score
Writer, Heater Magazine
That’s the one reason I would feel cautious about moving Hanley down in the lineup. (Well, other than not getting as many at-bats from him.)
If Hanley is suddenly hitting 7th or something, he may start making desperate changes to his swing or plate approach — and that is where you REALLY get into trouble.
Bass and sharks are BOTH fish.
Hanley
It’s not like his strikeouts are really up that much. He’s hitting the ball, but it’s just not dropping in the right places. It’s also not like Jeter, where the ball is consistently rolling to second. Hanley will be fine and he shouldn’t be moved.
If you want to keep historical trends though, Ramirez is batting .295 with 11 HRs and 32 RBIs against Philly in 342 at bats.
- Attempting to debate with a person who has abandoned reason is like giving medicine to the dead.
- Defeat isn't bitter if you don't swallow it.
He's hitting poorly because of bad luck.
He hasn’t gotten the right pitches to hit, the fielders have been there when he has, etc.
The same reason why everyone has a couple ten-game stretches where they hit .200, the same reason why everyone has a couple ten-game stretches where they hit .400. None of this is new or exciting.
Bass and sharks are BOTH fish.
batting order should change at least once a week if not more often. i would make todays...
1. cogs .271 cf
2. dobbs .500 3b
3. gaby .317 1b
4. lomo .317 lf
5. stanton ..222 rf
6. hanley .194 ss
7. hayes .667 c
8. infante .222 2b
9. nolasco .250 p
Dobbs?
You mean the guy with the sub-.300 on-base percentage last year?
Bass and sharks are BOTH fish.
In 14 at-bats.
You can’t possibly be that gullible in real life, can you?
Bass and sharks are BOTH fish.
have you ever played baseball?
you dont move the lineup every week for MANY reasons.
we’re dealing with mlb hitters — they all can hit. & the really good ones (hanley,cogs) would/should get pissed if you move them in the order on a day-to-day basis. & rightfully so.
you dont move good hitters down b/c when they can potentially get red hot & out of their streak (which does happen) they will be getting less ABs.
not only that but if you drop your best hitters in the order then they will probably see more off-speed pitches especially if no one is ever on or a bad hitter is behind them.
oh & they’ll also get less RBI chances & so your chance at the big IP will be less.
there’s a reason why some of these people have been in baseball a looooong time
Exactly.
LoMo is our best on-base guy at this point — he needs to be up early. I’d be okay with leading him off, but I understand if you want to bat him second or third because you want him to drive guys in. Either way, sixth makes no sense… he keeps getting walked and stuff, and then nobody can drive him in.
I might go with something like Coghlan, Hanley, Logan, Stanton, Gaby, Buck, (third baseman), Infante.
You could switch Hanley and Logan, though I feel like Hanley plays better when he’s not trying to swing for the fences.
You could make a case for moving Hanley to leadoff if you want him to do that stuff, or switching Gaby with Coghlan in 1-3, or even leaving Infante up there instead of Coghlan if you think he can replicate last year.
Either way, I want Buck sixth, because he’s a fairly legit power hitter… I tend to subscribe to the notion that you don’t want your worst hitter 8th, to avoid the pitcher leading off the next inning, though I’m sure the numbers don’t bear this out as a legitimate thing, so maybe the third baseman should hit there after all?
Either way… Logan needs to move up. Way up.
Bass and sharks are BOTH fish.
i like lomo in the 4 spot like i have above
that way he can both get RBI’s, and get on base with stanton and hanley behind him to drive him in.
2 for 1
Fair enough.
I feel like moving him up and putting a guy like Stanton — a guy who really focuses on being a power hitter - 4th is more of a thing. I would like to believe Logan will keep hitting home runs twice a week, but at this point, I see him as a guy with an OBP in the .375.400 range, maybe 15 homers a year, and a lot of doubles.
Plus he walks a lot, so it’s more effective to have him get on base early in the inning. I mean, a walk is always good, but a walk with a guy on second or third doesn’t advance the runner, so if you’re going to have both, you’d rather have the walk then the hit, not vice versa.
The more I think about it, the more I like Logan batting second and Hanley third. That way if he walks, there are at least 2 more hitters to drive him in — and Hanley’s speed makes it hard to double him up. Meanwhile, if he hits a double, he drives the leadoff guy in (assuming the leadoff guy got on base), and again, there’s multiple chances to drive him in from second.
I mean, we can re-evaluate it if he keeps hitting home runs at this pace,
Bass and sharks are BOTH fish.
eh
im a traditionalist i guess. i dont like the idea of changing the order every week.
GO:Gators, Dolphins, Heat, Marlins, and Yankees
he who fears losing, has already lost
Josh Johnson for 2011 NL Cy Young!
Opening day only 2 months away
Oh and here are my picks
15374
Gaby
Marlins 2+ HR
GO:Gators, Dolphins, Heat, Marlins, and Yankees
he who fears losing, has already lost
Josh Johnson for 2011 NL Cy Young!
Opening day only 2 months away
3.3 Seconds
I know you would be a subscriber to “Beyond the Box Score”. I like you styler. Agree with everything you have said.
"If winning isn't everything, then why do they keep score?"
-Vince Lombardi
If I were to re-order the batting lineup:
Against righties:
1. Morrison
2. Coghlan
3. Sanchez
4. Ramirez
5. Stanton
6. Dobbs
7. Buck
8. Infante
9. Pitcher
Against lefties:
1. Sanchez
2. Coghlan
3. Morrison
4. Ramirez
5. Stanton
6. Infante
7. Buck
8. Murphy
9. Pitcher
Chris Coghlan is the 2009 NLRoY (that's a +1 for me!)
Everyone relax
There’s usually a good reason why managers don’t move lineups around often; they recognize to some extent that good players slump, but it doesn’t mean the slump is real or likely to extend (if it is real). In addition, there are always concerns about hurting a player’s ego, so you want to keep those in check as well. The very best don’t need to be moved, and that includes a struggling Hanley Ramirez.
But in addition to all of that, keep in mind that lineups ultimately don’t matter all that much. The first thing lineups do is give PA to players; Craig mentions that one slot is worth about 18 extra PA. What’s the difference between Infante and Morrison in one season? If you take ZiPS’s in-season projections, the difference between Morrison and Infante is worth about 0.03 runs per PA. In a full 162 games season, that may be worth 2.5 runs.
Are we really complaining about what could be at absolute worst a half a win? It’s not that bad guys. Yes, he should move him, but it’s not going to necessarily make or break a season.
Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog
Writer, Beyond the Box Score
Writer, Heater Magazine
I'd like to see
I’d like to see Morrison get a chance to bat 2nd in the lineup. I think putting Coghlan and him at 1 & 2 will set it up nicely for Ramirez and Stanton.
- Attempting to debate with a person who has abandoned reason is like giving medicine to the dead.
- Defeat isn't bitter if you don't swallow it.
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