Heath Bell signs three-year deal with Marlins

As per Jayson Stark of ESPN.com. The deal is worth $27 million. For $9 million a year, it is not an awful deal, but my earlier point still stands: the team had more needs than at closer. Not a good use of money on the team's first deal. I'll have more on this tomorrow.

UPDATE: Jayson Stark confirms the deal on ESPN.com.

6 months ago Michael Jong 28 comments 0 recs |

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Reyes is going to sign soon, Wilson might sign with us as well

by RaysOfHope on Dec 1, 2011 11:14 PM EST via mobile reply actions

That would be it for us I think but it would still be a pretty good offseason. Would like to add Buehrle too but I would be okay with just Wilson. It will get brought down to earth when Reyes gets hurt but we would still have a solid rotation & bullpen.

NY Jets = NFL's Chicago Cubs

There's a fine line between hopeful and desperate. Just look @ Jets fans.

by TheFinReaper on Dec 1, 2011 11:21 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah, I wouldn't get my hopes up for four free agents

It’s not a particularly good idea in terms of team building anyway.

Fish Stripes, a Florida Marlins blog
Author, Baseball Prospectus Fantasy

by Michael Jong on Dec 1, 2011 11:22 PM EST up reply actions

I'd have rather gotten Buehrle instead of Bell and looked to develop a closer elsewhere but we do need a save machine back there.

NY Jets = NFL's Chicago Cubs

There's a fine line between hopeful and desperate. Just look @ Jets fans.

by TheFinReaper on Dec 1, 2011 11:26 PM EST up reply actions

Don't need a save machine

Already have at least two in-house option we could have turned to instead of paying $9M. Hopefully this doesn’t preclude a more important signing

Fish Stripes, a Florida Marlins blog
Author, Baseball Prospectus Fantasy

by Michael Jong on Dec 1, 2011 11:27 PM EST up reply actions

Didn't say we had to sign a free agent to get the job done but WE NEED A CLOSER! Nunez made that perfectly obvious the last 2 years.

We definitely would have been better served to sure up the rotation and promote a bullpen arm/sign a cheap closer option than to dump $9 million into a guy that will only play if we have a small lead with 6 outs or less to go. Like I said, we need a save machine but I would rather have signed 2 starting pitchers instead of 1 starter and a closer.

NY Jets = NFL's Chicago Cubs

There's a fine line between hopeful and desperate. Just look @ Jets fans.

by TheFinReaper on Dec 1, 2011 11:49 PM EST up reply actions

no one needs a save machine

http://baseballperiod.blogspot.com/

by bronzeagle on Dec 1, 2011 11:28 PM EST up reply actions

Uh, WE need one. How many games did we lose the last 2 seasons because Nunez (Or other Pitcher) failed to close out the win?

What we didn’t need to do was spend $9 million a year to get one.

NY Jets = NFL's Chicago Cubs

There's a fine line between hopeful and desperate. Just look @ Jets fans.

by TheFinReaper on Dec 1, 2011 11:45 PM EST up reply actions

Relievers are important

They should never be $9M/season important. That we agree on.

Fish Stripes, a Florida Marlins blog
Author, Baseball Prospectus Fantasy

by Michael Jong on Dec 1, 2011 11:49 PM EST up reply actions

I consider a closer more towards a

“Want” as opposed to a “need”

a good closer is good to have because I like 8 inning games, Nunez was not a good closer, we needed to improve (someone like Broxton would have been Prefect) just not Heath Bell improve…Heath Bell is/was a want.
3B/CF/SP are needs

http://baseballperiod.blogspot.com/

by bronzeagle on Dec 2, 2011 12:00 AM EST up reply actions

Umm......

Nunez was not a good closer, we needed to improve…..just not Heath Bell improve

Isn’t that all but EXACTLY what I said?
“Uh, WE need one. How many games did we lose the last 2 seasons because Nunez (Or other Pitcher) failed to close out the win? What we didn’t need to do was spend $9 million a year to get one.”

I’m confused. It sounds like we are on the same page but that you are disagreeing with me. Just for the record my opinion is:
Bell= Bad signing overvaluing what he brings to the organization
$9 Million= Better off spent acquiring Starting Pitching (5 Good Starters > 1 All Star Closer)
Closer= Position in need of upgrade but shouldn’t have been a free agent priority

NY Jets = NFL's Chicago Cubs

There's a fine line between hopeful and desperate. Just look @ Jets fans.

by TheFinReaper on Dec 2, 2011 12:21 AM EST up reply actions

we agree

I just simply put it “no one needs a save machine”…..I take “save machine” to mean All-star closer.

then you said “uh, WE need one.”
which I took to mean the exact opposite of all of your other posts (that I agree with)….t’was confusing.

http://baseballperiod.blogspot.com/

by bronzeagle on Dec 2, 2011 12:28 AM EST up reply actions

Apologies for my part in the confusion. For me, save machine just means a closer that converts around 90% of his save opportunities. In short a guy you could hand the ball to with confidence that he would finish the win.

We’ve had many of them over the years and all were reclamation projects that immediately signed elsewhere and we would have to start over. Now we could find a guy and actually keep him if/when he panned out. This would have been the better option for us to take IMHO.
Just for comparisons sake (Last 3 seasons):
Nunez: 92 of 113 (81.4%)
B. Wilson: 122 of 139 (87.8%)
H. Bell: 132 of 146 (90.4%)
M. Rivera: 121 of 133 (90.97%)
J. Soria (Royals): 101 of 114 (88.6%)
M. Capps (Pirates, Nats, Twins): 90 of 106 (85%)
Chris Perez (Indians): 59 of 67 (88.1% – Only last 2 years)

NY Jets = NFL's Chicago Cubs

There's a fine line between hopeful and desperate. Just look @ Jets fans.

by TheFinReaper on Dec 2, 2011 1:04 AM EST up reply actions

Interesting to note

The difference between 81% and 90% in terms of converted saves is only four games a season. If you figure that the Marlins aren’t losing all those games (undoubtedly some are going to extras or being won at the bottom of the inning), you’re looking at maybe a two-game difference in wins/losses. Food for thought when considering the price.

Fish Stripes, a Florida Marlins blog
Author, Baseball Prospectus Fantasy

by Michael Jong on Dec 2, 2011 1:11 AM EST up reply actions

Not exactly

If you figure that the Marlins aren’t losing all those games (undoubtedly some are going to extras or being won at the bottom of the inning), you’re looking at maybe a two-game difference in wins/losses.

1.) This was a representation of saves converted out of saves attempted therefore games that went to extras because the closer failed to convert or games won in walk off fashion are counted for where applicable.
2.) This represents saves only so it ignores situations where the closer entered without a lead even if he coughed up the game losing run.
3.) If the Closer enters with a 3 run lead and surrenders 2 runs, the team wins and he converts a save (A fairly common occurrence with Nunez) however any given year the number of converted saves vs blown saves due to runs allowed can shift dramatically. Say Nunez converted 7 of 10 one year but the next year he converts only 4 of those. An extra 3 losses in the NL especially can be the difference between playing in the playoffs and watching them from home.
I’m not arguing with your point that $9 million for a guy that may win you more 4 games than a much cheaper option is not worth the money. I’m just saying that a closer is important. A closer matters but shouldn’t be making more money than your entire outfield. I’m just saying there is more to it than just saves per opportunity.

NY Jets = NFL's Chicago Cubs

There's a fine line between hopeful and desperate. Just look @ Jets fans.

by TheFinReaper on Dec 2, 2011 11:20 AM EST up reply actions

to me

this is a failure in two ways:

1. complete inability to think outside of the box in how to acquire a closer, and bullpen arms in general. i doubt that this will be an outright disaster of a contract esp if the new stadium plays to pitching, but it’s not really necessary, especially if the other, more important, FA targets aren’t landed.

2. more importantly, this is another example of the marlins covering their asses because they have not drafted well. power arms for high leverage situations are guys that should be acquired in the draft so that they cost you less to nothing to have around. the cardinals had guys like jason motte and lance lynn this year pitching very important innings for them. the yankees have a guy like david robertson. the red sox now have daniel bard. the braves with kimbrel and venters. it’s no coincidence that these are also some of the best teams in baseball.

by rayrayrayrayrayrayrayray on Dec 1, 2011 11:55 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

Nailed it

I’m perhaps more disappointed in the thought process, as you mention. After years of being smart about their bullpen, the first signing they make is an overcommitment to an aging closer for market value. It just isn’t smart, and I think it does speak to how they evaluate their players.

Fish Stripes, a Florida Marlins blog
Author, Baseball Prospectus Fantasy

by Michael Jong on Dec 2, 2011 12:07 AM EST up reply actions

Absolutely right. This smells more like a boy getting his first paycheck and acting like he's a millionaire than a savvy GM move.

NY Jets = NFL's Chicago Cubs

There's a fine line between hopeful and desperate. Just look @ Jets fans.

by TheFinReaper on Dec 2, 2011 12:11 AM EST up reply actions

it does feel like

the marlins have been interested in bell for a few years…I guess this was an opportunity they just couldn’t pass up?

http://baseballperiod.blogspot.com/

by bronzeagle on Dec 2, 2011 12:10 AM EST reply actions

Yeah, we've been hearing Bell rumors for a while via the trade front

but to have it come down to giving him this much money just disappoints me.

Fish Stripes, a Florida Marlins blog
Author, Baseball Prospectus Fantasy

by Michael Jong on Dec 2, 2011 12:14 AM EST up reply actions

i feel like

the marlins were probably less interested in heath bell in particular than they were in a big name closer that is (or was) perpetually available

by rayrayrayrayrayrayrayray on Dec 2, 2011 12:36 AM EST up reply actions

I like Heath Bell

Since I live in San Diego, I have had quite a bit of exposure to him, and I think he will certainly be a fan favorite in Miami. It’s so hard to predict how relievers will perform from year to year, but I will remain optimistic about the next three years, that’s what the offseason is for right? Welcome Heath, best of luck to you!

by cpmustangs13 on Dec 2, 2011 8:12 AM EST reply actions

I also like Bell

but I only like this signing if:
- He continues to be a great closer for all three years
- We are able to trade Oviedo for one of our positions of need
- We are able to fill some of positions of need otherwise

The way I see it, we needed to improve the back end of the bullpen, but not for $9MM/yr. The order I think we needed to improve, by position, was:
3B, SP, CF, C, RP…. I don’t think we needed to make moves for LF, RF, 2B, SS, or 1B.

So, if we still fix the others, I will be OK with this. I think they were feeling the pressure of not having any of their very public other offers accepted yet. As long as there’s still room in the budget for the others, with out going full Philadelphia Eagles with no team chemistry, I’m accepting this as an OK move.

Also, check out my fan post on this: