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2011 Marlins, Against The Odds

By on Nov 16 2011, 11:03p +

Here is a look at how the Marlins 2011 actual results stacked up compared to what the Vegas odds makers thought of them throughout the season.  If you take the win Vegas win expectancy from all 162 of the Marlins games and add them up, you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.4725 which translates to an expected win total of 76.55 games.  If you do the same for my simulation of each Marlins game you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.4645 or 75.25 wins.  The Marlins actually went 72-90 on the season.  Below is a list of all 162 games with the Vegas odds for every game, the list is sorted by games in which the Marlins were the largest favorite to win.

RankDateAway SPHome SPAwayHomeFaveFave Win PercFLA Win PercSim FLA Win PercWinning TeamAway RunsHome RunsTotal Runs
1 04-19-2011 Paul Maholm Josh Johnson PIT FLA FLA 64.727 64.727 61.956 FLA 0 6 6
2 04-07-11 John Lannan Josh Johnson WAS FLA FLA 63.636 63.636 58.82 WAS 5 3 8
3 04-01-11 Mike Pelfrey Josh Johnson NYN FLA FLA 62.121 62.121 56.138 FLA 2 6 8
4 05-08-11 Livan Hernandez Anibal Sanchez WAS FLA FLA 61.39 61.39 58.79 FLA 0 8 8
5 07-21-2011 Dustin Moseley Javier Vazquez SD FLA FLA 61.315 61.315 58.738 SD 5 3 8
6 04-05-11 Jason Marquis Anibal Sanchez WAS FLA FLA 60.938 60.938 55.934 FLA 2 3 5
7 07-09-11 Brett Myers Ricky Nolasco HOU FLA FLA 60.861 60.861 62.9 FLA 1 6 7
8 05-19-2011 Casey Coleman Chris Volstad CHN FLA FLA 60.861 60.861 59.184 CHN 5 1 6
9 04-20-2011 Charlie Morton Ricky Nolasco PIT FLA FLA 60.63 60.63 59.111 FLA 0 6 6
10 05-20-2011 Andy Sonnanstine Anibal Sanchez TB FLA FLA 60.396 60.396 63.611 FLA 3 5 8
11 09-27-2011 John Lannan Javier Vazquez WAS FLA FLA 60.239 60.239 57.186 FLA 2 3 5
12 05-06-11 Jordan Zimmerman Ricky Nolasco WAS FLA FLA 60.08 60.08 54.211 WAS 4 2 6
13 06-10-11 Joe Saunders Anibal Sanchez ARI FLA FLA 59.759 59.759 67.676 FLA 4 6 10
14 05-16-2011 Josh Johnson Mike Pelfrey FLA NYN FLA 59.432 59.432 57.204 FLA 2 1 3
15 05-18-2011 Ryan Dempster Ricky Nolasco CHN FLA FLA 58.848 58.848 60.863 CHN 7 5 12
16 07-20-2011 Aaron Harang Ricky Nolasco SD FLA FLA 58.592 58.592 62.035 SD 14 3 17
17 07-08-11 Jordan Lyles Javier Vazquez HOU FLA FLA 58.071 58.071 56.831 FLA 3 6 9
18 07-10-11 Wandy Rodriguez Chris Volstad HOU FLA FLA 57.447 57.447 53.094 FLA 4 5 9
19 06-05-11 Chris Narveson Anibal Sanchez MIL FLA FLA 57.356 57.356 63.837 MIL 6 5 11
20 04-06-11 Livan Hernandez Chris Volstad WAS FLA FLA 57.265 57.265 46.615 FLA 4 7 11
21 04-24-2011 Ubaldo Jimenez Josh Johnson COL FLA FLA 57.265 57.265 55.884 FLA 3 6 9
22 04-25-2011 Jon Garland Ricky Nolasco LAN FLA FLA 57.173 57.173 61.416 FLA 4 5 9
23 05-05-11 Josh Johnson Jake Westbrook FLA STL FLA 57.082 57.082 50.083 STL 3 6 9
24 07-19-2011 Tim Stauffer Anibal Sanchez SD FLA FLA 56.989 56.989 56.548 SD 4 0 4
25 04-02-11 John Niese Ricky Nolasco NYN FLA FLA 56.897 56.897 54.251 NYN 6 4 10
26 09-26-2011 Tommy Milone Anibal Sanchez WAS FLA FLA 56.803 56.803 63.216 WAS 6 4 10
27 06-13-2011 Zach Duke Ricky Nolasco ARI FLA FLA 56.616 56.616 61.952 ARI 12 9 21
28 07-07-11 J.A. Happ Brad Hand HOU FLA FLA 56.044 56.044 54.909 FLA 0 5 5
29 05-07-11 Tom Gorzelanny Chris Volstad WAS FLA FLA 55.85 55.85 49.666 WAS 5 2 7
30 09-05-11 Chris Capuano Javier Vazquez NYN FLA FLA 55.056 55.056 49.723 FLA 3 9 12
31 07-06-11 Kyle Kendrick Anibal Sanchez PHI FLA FLA 55.056 55.056 58.89 FLA 6 7 13
32 04-21-2011 James McDonald Chris Volstad PIT FLA FLA 55.056 55.056 53.352 FLA 5 9 14
33 07-24-2011 Dillon Gee Anibal Sanchez NYN FLA FLA 55.056 55.056 57.145 FLA 4 5 9
34 07-22-2011 Mike Pelfrey Chris Volstad NYN FLA FLA 54.853 54.853 53.088 NYN 7 6 13
35 07-23-2011 Chris Capuano Clay Hensley NYN FLA FLA 54.853 54.853 46.27 FLA 5 8 13
36 08-24-2011 Bronson Arroyo Chris Volstad CIN FLA FLA 54.853 54.853 54.899 CIN 3 2 5
37 04-03-11 R.A. Dickey Javier Vazquez NYN FLA FLA 54.751 54.751 50.997 NYN 9 2 11
38 08-05-11 Jake Westbrook Anibal Sanchez STL FLA FLA 54.649 54.649 53.456 STL 3 2 5
39 04-30-2011 Josh Johnson Edinson Volquez FLA CIN FLA 54.338 54.338 52.876 CIN 3 4 7
40 09-10-11 Anibal Sanchez Jeff Locke FLA PIT FLA 54.023 54.023 53.874 FLA 3 0 3
41 05-14-2011 Anibal Sanchez Livan Hernandez FLA WAS FLA 53.811 53.811 52.582 FLA 1 0 1
42 06-03-11 Randy Wolf Ricky Nolasco MIL FLA FLA 53.38 53.38 63.655 MIL 6 5 11
43 09-06-11 Miguel Batista Chris Volstad NYN FLA FLA 53.38 53.38 56.886 NYN 7 4 11
44 04-27-2011 Chad Billingsley Anibal Sanchez LAN FLA FLA 53.38 53.38 57.762 LAN 5 4 9
45 08-04-11 Kyle Lohse Anibal Sanchez STL FLA FLA 52.941 52.941 52.907 STL 7 4 11
46 06-08-11 Derek Lowe Ricky Nolasco ATL FLA FLA 52.941 52.941 56.909 ATL 3 2 5
47 06-26-2011 Doug Fister Anibal Sanchez SEA FLA FLA 52.719 52.719 55.296 SEA 2 1 3
48 09-09-11 Ricky Nolasco Ross Ohlendorf FLA PIT FLA 52.494 52.494 53.104 FLA 13 4 17
49 04-08-11 Ricky Nolasco Wandy Rodriguez FLA HOU FLA 52.381 52.381 43.882 FLA 4 3 7
50 08-24-2011 Homer Bailey Javier Vazquez CIN FLA FLA 52.267 52.267 52.154 FLA 5 6 11
51 05-26-2011 Anibal Sanchez Ryan Vogelsong FLA SF FLA 51.923 51.923 46.852 FLA 1 0 1
52 04-10-11 Anibal Sanchez J.A. Happ FLA HOU FLA 51.807 51.807 51.817 HOU 1 7 8
53 07-04-11 Vance Worley Ricky Nolasco PHI FLA FLA 51.691 51.691 50.202 PHI 1 0 1
54 07-17-2011 Chris Volstad Randy Wells FLA CHN FLA 51.22 51.22 42.805 FLA 7 5 12
55 09-21-2011 Derek Lowe Javier Vazquez ATL FLA FLA 50.98 50.98 50.24 FLA 0 4 4
56 04-09-11 Javier Vazquez Bud Norris FLA HOU FLA 50.617 50.617 46.441 FLA 7 5 12
57 09-11-11 Javier Vazquez James McDonald FLA PIT FLA 50.249 50.249 44.105 FLA 4 1 5
58 05-10-11 Roy Halladay Josh Johnson PHI FLA PHI 50 50 50.061 FLA 1 2 3
59 05-09-11 Joe Blanton Javier Vazquez PHI FLA PHI 50.249 49.751 46.128 PHI 6 4 10
60 04-23-2011 Jason Hammel Javier Vazquez COL FLA COL 50.249 49.751 42.281 COL 3 1 4
61 06-22-2011 Joel Pineiro Brian Sanches LAA FLA LAA 50.495 49.505 49.608 LAA 6 5 11
62 04-22-2011 Jhoulys Chacin Anibal Sanchez COL FLA COL 50.86 49.14 45.67 FLA 1 4 5
63 05-11-11 Cliff Lee Ricky Nolasco PHI FLA PHI 51.1 48.9 43.229 PHI 5 3 8
64 07-27-2011 Javier Vazquez Livan Hernandez FLA WAS WAS 51.22 48.78 40.368 FLA 7 5 12
65 09-20-2011 Randall Delgado Anibal Sanchez ATL FLA ATL 51.456 48.544 60.6 ATL 4 0 4
66 08-08-11 Derek Lowe Brad Hand ATL FLA ATL 52.038 47.962 47.888 ATL 8 5 13
67 08-01-11 Javier Vazquez Mike Pelfrey FLA NYN NYN 52.153 47.847 42.658 FLA 7 3 10
68 09-01-11 Clay Hensley Miguel Batista FLA NYN NYN 52.267 47.733 43.011 NYN 5 7 12
69 05-27-2011 Javier Vazquez Jon Garland FLA LAN LAN 52.494 47.506 42.225 LAN 3 4 7
70 07-15-2011 Ricky Nolasco Ryan Dempster FLA CHN CHN 52.494 47.506 45.807 CHN 1 2 3
71 05-01-11 Ricky Nolasco Bronson Arroyo FLA CIN CIN 52.607 47.393 42.764 FLA 9 5 14
72 05-13-2011 Chris Volstad Tom Gorzelanny FLA WAS WAS 52.719 47.281 43.338 FLA 6 5 11
73 07-14-2011 Anibal Sanchez Matt Garza FLA CHN CHN 52.719 47.281 46.815 FLA 6 3 9
74 09-16-2011 Javier Vazquez John Lannan FLA WAS WAS 52.719 47.281 45.041 FLA 3 0 3
75 09-19-2011 Mike Minor Ricky Nolasco ATL FLA ATL 52.719 47.281 49.85 FLA 5 6 11
76 08-30-2011 Javier Vazquez Mike Pelfrey FLA NYN NYN 52.941 47.059 42.157 FLA 6 0 6
77 09-07-11 R.A. Dickey Brad Hand NYN FLA NYN 53.162 46.838 49.069 NYN 1 0 1
78 06-11-11 Ian Kennedy Javier Vazquez ARI FLA ARI 53.271 46.729 48.08 ARI 9 5 14
79 06-12-11 Daniel Hudson Brad Hand ARI FLA ARI 53.271 46.729 44.652 ARI 5 1 6
80 08-14-2011 Ryan Vogelsong Chris Volstad SF FLA SF 53.38 46.62 46.509 SF 5 2 7
81 08-17-2011 Ricky Nolasco Aaron Cook FLA COL COL 53.38 46.62 38.356 COL 5 12 17
82 08-12-11 Matt Cain Ricky Nolasco SF FLA SF 53.596 46.404 47.647 FLA 1 2 3
83 08-29-2011 Ricky Nolasco Dillon Gee FLA NYN NYN 53.596 46.404 50.394 NYN 1 5 6
84 08-10-11 Tim Hudson Anibal Sanchez ATL FLA ATL 53.811 46.189 55.047 ATL 6 2 8
85 06-20-2011 Jered Weaver Anibal Sanchez LAA FLA LAA 54.023 45.977 50.504 LAA 2 1 3
86 08-09-11 Brandon Beachy Clay Hensley ATL FLA ATL 54.442 45.558 48.565 ATL 4 3 7
87 05-31-2011 Anibal Sanchez Ian Kennedy FLA ARI ARI 54.442 45.558 46.067 FLA 5 2 7
88 06-21-2011 Ervin Santana Javier Vazquez LAA FLA LAA 54.442 45.558 49.024 FLA 2 5 7
89 07-16-2011 Javier Vazquez Carlos Zambrano FLA CHN CHN 54.442 45.558 37.395 FLA 13 3 16
90 08-07-11 Jaime Garcia Javier Vazquez STL FLA STL 54.545 45.455 39.285 STL 8 4 12
91 05-30-2011 Chris Volstad Joe Saunders FLA ARI ARI 54.545 45.455 50.416 ARI 4 15 19
92 05-15-2011 Javier Vazquez Jason Marquis FLA WAS WAS 54.751 45.249 43.236 WAS 4 8 12
93 05-28-2011 Brian Sanches Hiroki Kuroda FLA LAN LAN 54.853 45.147 40.214 FLA 6 1 7
94 08-02-11 Brad Hand Chris Capuano FLA NYN NYN 55.056 44.944 36.354 FLA 4 3 7
95 08-20-2011 Clay Hensley Aaron Harang FLA SD SD 55.056 44.944 40.6 SD 1 14 15
96 08-29-2011 Anibal Sanchez R.A. Dickey FLA NYN NYN 55.257 44.743 48.226 NYN 1 2 3
97 08-23-2011 Johnny Cueto Ricky Nolasco CIN FLA CIN 55.357 44.643 51.513 CIN 8 6 14
98 08-06-11 Chris Carpenter Ricky Nolasco STL FLA STL 55.457 44.543 45.597 STL 2 1 3
99 04-13-2011 Josh Johnson Tim Hudson FLA ATL ATL 55.457 44.543 48.513 FLA 5 1 6
100 08-21-2011 Anibal Sanchez Cory Luebke FLA SD SD 55.457 44.543 41.441 SD 3 4 7
101 06-06-11 Zach Greinke Javier Vazquez MIL FLA MIL 55.654 44.346 46.849 MIL 7 2 9
102 06-29-2011 Ricky Nolasco Guillermo Moscoso FLA OAK OAK 55.654 44.346 46.253 FLA 3 0 3
103 05-24-2011 Ricky Nolasco Matt Cain FLA SF SF 55.85 44.15 38.197 FLA 5 1 6
104 05-29-2011 Ricky Nolasco Clayton Kershaw FLA LAN LAN 55.85 44.15 40.738 LAN 0 8 8
105 07-18-2011 Clay Hensley Chris Capuano FLA NYN NYN 55.85 44.15 42.282 FLA 4 1 5
106 06-09-11 Jair Jurrjens Chris Volstad ATL FLA ATL 56.044 43.956 48.865 ATL 3 2 5
107 06-25-2011 Jason Vargas Chris Volstad SEA FLA SEA 56.044 43.956 49.071 FLA 2 4 6
108 05-03-11 Anibal Sanchez Kyle McClellan FLA STL STL 56.14 43.86 43.9 STL 5 7 12
109 08-19-2011 Chris Volstad Wade LeBlanc FLA SD SD 56.427 43.573 43.442 SD 3 4 7
110 04-14-2011 Ricky Nolasco Brandon Beachy FLA ATL ATL 56.522 43.478 45.37 FLA 6 5 11
111 09-02-11 Roy Oswalt Brad Hand PHI FLA PHI 56.616 43.384 43.283 PHI 5 3 8
112 06-04-11 Yovanni Gallardo Chris Volstad MIL FLA MIL 56.616 43.384 53.474 MIL 3 2 5
113 04-26-2011 Clayton Kershaw Chris Volstad LAN FLA LAN 56.616 43.384 48.873 FLA 2 4 6
114 07-26-2011 Ricky Nolasco Jordan Zimmerman FLA WAS WAS 56.616 43.384 44.15 FLA 11 2 13
115 09-25-2011 Ricky Nolasco Chris Narveson FLA MIL MIL 56.989 43.011 42.529 MIL 5 9 14
116 06-18-2011 Ricky Nolasco Alex Cobb FLA TB TB 57.082 42.918 41.826 TB 4 7 11
117 08-13-2011 Tim Lincecum Javier Vazquez SF FLA SF 57.173 42.827 42.867 SF 3 0 3
118 08-18-2011 Javier Vazquez Tim Stauffer FLA SD SD 57.173 42.827 44.497 SD 1 3 4
119 05-22-2011 James Shields Jay Buente TB FLA TB 57.537 42.463 47.613 TB 4 0 4
120 06-17-2011 Brad Hand Wade Davis FLA TB TB 57.627 42.373 37.295 TB 1 5 6
121 06-07-11 Tommy Hanson Brad Hand ATL FLA ATL 57.717 42.283 45.786 ATL 1 0 1
122 05-25-2011 Chris Volstad Madison Bumgarner FLA SF SF 57.895 42.105 33.653 FLA 7 6 13
123 09-14-2011 Ricky Nolasco Randall Delgado FLA ATL ATL 58.246 41.754 46.664 ATL 1 4 5
124 09-18-2011 Brad Hand Chien-Ming Wang FLA WAS WAS 58.333 41.667 45.17 WAS 3 4 7
125 04-29-2011 Javier Vazquez Travis Wood FLA CIN CIN 58.42 41.58 31.981 FLA 7 6 13
126 07-30-2011 Anibal Sanchez Tim Hudson FLA ATL ATL 58.42 41.58 46.355 ATL 1 5 6
127 09-28-2011 Stephen Strasburg Chris Volstad WAS FLA WAS 58.42 41.58 52.155 WAS 3 1 4
128 09-15-2011 Anibal Sanchez Kyle Kendrick FLA PHI PHI 58.678 41.322 45.673 PHI 1 3 4
129 08-15-2011 Clay Hensley Kevin Millwood FLA COL COL 59.267 40.733 33.59 COL 4 7 11
130 07-28-2011 Brad Hand John Lannan FLA WAS WAS 59.432 40.568 40.593 FLA 5 2 7
131 06-24-2011 Felx Hernandez Ricky Nolasco SEA FLA SEA 59.596 40.404 48.815 SEA 5 1 6
132 06-30-2011 Chris Volstad Trevor Cahill FLA OAK OAK 60.08 39.92 35.271 FLA 5 4 9
133 06-15-2011 Elih Villanueva Kyle Kendrick FLA PHI PHI 60.239 39.761 35.51 PHI 1 8 9
134 07-31-2011 Ricky Nolasco Tommy Hanson FLA ATL ATL 60.239 39.761 41.256 FLA 3 1 4
135 06-01-11 Javier Vazquez Daniel Hudson FLA ARI ARI 60.396 39.604 31.536 ARI 5 6 11
136 08-16-2011 Anibal Sanchez Jhoulys Chacin FLA COL COL 60.396 39.604 36.405 FLA 6 5 11
137 07-05-11 Cole Hamels Chris Volstad PHI FLA PHI 60.707 39.293 33.537 PHI 14 2 16
138 05-21-2011 David Price Javier Vazquez TB FLA TB 60.784 39.216 42.274 FLA 3 5 8
139 04-17-2011 Anibal Sanchez Cole Hamels FLA PHI PHI 60.861 39.139 38.711 PHI 2 3 5
140 07-29-2011 Clay Hensley Brandon Beachy FLA ATL ATL 60.861 39.139 37.072 ATL 0 5 5
141 09-03-11 Cole Hamels Ricky Nolasco PHI FLA PHI 61.39 38.61 45.04 FLA 4 8 12
142 05-02-11 Chris Volstad Kyle LOhse FLA STL STL 61.686 38.314 31.957 FLA 6 5 11
143 07-01-11 Anibal Sanchez Alexi Ogando FLA TEX TEX 61.905 38.095 35.003 TEX 5 15 20
144 04-12-11 Chris Volstad Tommy Hanson FLA ATL ATL 62.335 37.665 39.307 ATL 0 5 5
145 06-28-2011 Javier Vazquez Gio Gonzalez FLA OAK OAK 62.617 37.383 31.958 OAK 0 1 1
146 08-31-2011 Chris Volstad Chris Capuano FLA NYN NYN 62.894 37.106 37.158 NYN 2 3 5
147 09-13-2011 Brad Hand Mike Minor FLA ATL ATL 63.437 36.563 29.693 ATL 1 7 8
148 05-04-11 Javier Vazquez Chris Carpenter FLA STL STL 63.57 36.43 31.352 FLA 8 7 15
149 06-19-2011 Chris Volstad James Shields FLA TB TB 64.093 35.907 30.646 TB 1 2 3
150 06-15-2011 Anibal Sanchez Roy Halladay FLA PHI PHI 64.349 35.651 31.791 PHI 4 5 9
151 04-15-2011 Javier Vazquez Roy Oswalt FLA PHI PHI 65.096 34.904 35.037 FLA 4 3 7
152 07-03-11 Javier Vazquez C.J. Wilson FLA TEX TEX 65.157 34.843 23.994 FLA 6 4 10
153 09-24-2011 Alex Sanabia Zach Greinke FLA MIL MIL 65.278 34.722 30 MIL 4 6 10
154 08-26-2011 Clay Hensley Roy Oswalt FLA PHI PHI 66.102 33.898 30.701 FLA 6 5 11
155 06-14-2011 Chris Volstad Cole Hamels FLA PHI PHI 66.443 33.557 29.739 PHI 1 9 10
156 09-04-11 Roy Halladay Anibal Sanchez PHI FLA PHI 66.667 33.333 41.867 FLA 4 5 9
157 09-17-2011 Chris Volstad Stephen Strasburg FLA WAS WAS 67.105 32.895 40.69 FLA 4 1 5
158 09-12-11 Chris Volstad Brandon Beachy FLA ATL ATL 67.742 32.258 31.487 FLA 5 4 9
159 06-16-2011 Javier Vazquez Cliff Lee FLA PHI PHI 68.153 31.847 25.92 PHI 0 3 3
160 09-23-2011 Chris Volstad Yovanni Gallardo FLA MIL MIL 69.419 30.581 34.19 MIL 1 4 5
161 07-02-11 Brad Hand Derek Holland FLA TEX TEX 70.888 29.112 29.057 FLA 9 5 14
162 09-15-2011 Alex Sanabia Cliff Lee FLA PHI PHI 76.19 23.81 23.987 PHI 1 2 3

                                                                                                                                                                                                               

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