My 2012 Marlins Lineup and Rotation
I'm pretty new at writing blogs, but I have been a Marlins fan for years now and am very much excited for this upcoming off-season that just as gone underway. I have been looking up News about the Marlins everyday just to see whats going on, which shows me interest.
Since I've been reading around a lot I have had a few speculations of possible moves and signings that the Marlins should definitely think about pursuing this off-season, moves that will help this team reach the postseason in 2012.
I definitely want to start off at first base with Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder being in the free agent market this year. Pujols, even though i would be glad to bring him to Miami, is a far shot just because of his recent World Series win and the cost its going to take to provide him. It will take up all of our new salary space that the Marlin fans have been waiting for very long which will keep us from signing other possible free agents that we desperately need. I do believe Prince Fielder will be a big impact for the Marlins. Even though his strikeout total is pretty high, and that we have Mike Stanton who does that quite enough, his on base percentage makes up for it. Though if we do acquire the Prince, I'm sadly to say that we would need to trade away Miami Hurricane alumni Gaby Sanchez. who will bring in a possible starting pitcher. That is unless Gaby can switch, with his gold glove caliber, to the hot corner which could always be a possibility.
Third base is an area that I don't quite know how the Marlins should approach it. We definitely should resign Greg Dobbs to another year, he has shown that he can be consistent at times and really fire up the team as well as a great pinch hitter. Emilio Bonifacio can play there as well, which some training and Spring Training play there, he could become the new Chone Figgins, but faster and younger.
Outfield is an area that i have been thinking about for a while. And with all the trade talks about LoMo, i'd have to think that he might be out the door, even though his potential is through the roof. He has already caused problems his first year which means possibly more could come? We already no the front office doesn't fair well with that by the stunts of Joe Girardi. But more on LoMo later, I'm just gonna put a name out there who i believe the Marlins should think about pursuing. Grady Sizemore. Yes he has gone down a lot and yes hes a liability. But its a chance the Marlins could take and someone who could be shapened back up. He is still a Gold Glover even though his legs arent what they used to be. He definitely will provide a spark to the team and seats that will be filled that the Marlins front office is looking for.
Last, I feel pitching is a main area that everyone knows should be concentrated on. To start off, I know some Marlin Fans wold like to see CJ Wilson here, but im not to sure about that. Yes he is a good pitcher during the season, but he didnt show any playoff contribution what so ever. If were looking to win, we need pitching. Hopefully JJ gets and stays healthy and Anibal keeps getting better. Nolasco is someone that shows way to much inconsistency and I feel should put his skills else where. I feel we should trade for some well rounded prospects that we need to refill the farm system. There has also been speculation about a Gio Gonzalez for LoMo talk going around. I say go for it, bring the Hialeah native back home who could really solidify the number 2 or 3 spot. I also think Mark Buerhle should be a strong canidate the Marlins should aim for. With Ozzie here, im should we would attract some attention towards him. He may be a little over the age the Marlins usually want and have, but he has the veteran present and knowledge that would definitely be used, plus his 200+ innings and below 4 ERA in his career. Javier Vazquez did well the second half of the season for us, but he will be looking for more money, and a definite contender. A possible substitute we could bring in who would be cheaper is Livan Hernandez.. He loves Florida and still has great stuff at his age. With the recent incident of Leo Nunez (Ovideo), searching for a closer should be another thing. I would love Ryan Madson to come, but the cost may be to high that the Marlins arent to sure about paying. I think Francisco Rodriguez would be a great asset to the role, hes young and still could get back into his prime.
Those are just quite some moves I think the Marlins should keep an eye on this off-season. Here is the Lineup and Rotation I feel would help bring us to the next level:
Lineup:
1. Bonifacio 3B
2. Chris Coghlan CF
3. Hanley Ramirez SS
4. Prince Fielder 1B
5. Mike Stanton RF
6. Grady Sizemore LF
7. John Buck C
8. Omar Infante 2B
9. Pitcher
Rotation:
1. Josh Johnson
2. Gio Gonzalez
3. Mark Buehrle
5. Livan Hernandez
CP: Francisco Rodriguez
I feel this could be a strong Pitching staff and Lineup that could contend in the 2012 season without a doubt. This payroll right here given the money given to Fielder who is a little above the $20 million mark, Buehrle at the $15 million, Francisco Rodriguez $8 million and Sizemore at the $5 million, will put us around the area where the Marlins should be happy with $93 million.
This is my first time blogging and something I really wanted to think up for the next season, so let me know what you guys think.
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Re: 2012 Marlins Lineup and Rotation
I totally agree with you on the Sizemore Buehrle Front. Sizemore I think can be had for a reasonable cost and if healthy will most surley outperform what he is paid (healthy is a big ?). Buehrle would be a great addition as well, consistent and veteran leadership.
I think K-rod, though flashy would come at to high a cost, you can always find cheap and effective relievers. He is going to be looking for a sizable contract (though not bigger than his previous) and I just feel the money would be spent better elsewhere. Plus I think he is highly overrated. If they do decide to spend big money on a closer I’d look at Ryan Madson.
One other idea would be to move LoMo back to 1B.
Regardless of what happens as a Marlins fan I am really excited for what this offseason. The pump in our salary makes us even more relevant in the FA process, and thats exciting!
Those are just some of my quick thoughts. If we somehow snagged Fielder that would be incredible. Keep up the good posts!
love it. though im only for spending money if it makes sense
potential 1-5 in lineup for next 5-7 years.
the fish have a better shot at pujols/prince than people think. yanks, sox, mets (haha) all are out. i prefer prince b/c he’s younger, entering his prime & a lefty. all depends on FO…
omar = bad 2 hitter, great 8 hitter.
gio = could be great
grady = hell no. not worth $$. rather see dobbs light up righties for a mill.
anibal may be gone no matter what
Agree with the Pujols/Fielder thought
Really its just a question of how much our FO is willing/allowed to spend. Also agree with you on Fielder > Pujols (though we’re splitting hairs here)
Sizemore would be on a Javier Vazquez-esque deal
As a high-risk, high-reward one-year bet by the Fish. I think he is someone to look into if paired with a decent long-term signing.
I can only agree Fielder > Pujols because of the price. Pujols could earn over $28 million a season on his next deal, but he is likely at this point (and for perhaps two or three seasons after that) a better player than Fielder. But if Fielder is significantly cheaper ($8-10 million a season cheaper), then Fielder would be the way to go.
Fish Stripes, a Florida Marlins blog
Author, Baseball Prospectus Fantasy
by Michael Jong on Nov 1, 2011 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions
gotta disagree here
fielder has to be at least 8-10 mill/year cheaper than pujols to be worth signing?? you’re out of your mind.
- pujols is 32 & wants like a 7 year deal. roids aren’t a part of the game anymore. obviously he’s a hall of fame player, but age & injuries will be a bigger issue year after year.
- if we’re talking only a 3-4 year deal (no way that happens) then i say pujols, but it would be a terrible idea to spend over 20 million a year (22+% total team salary) on a guy 35, 36, 37, 38, etc. especially without a DH.
- pujols is great & would bring a lot of attention/fans to the park but if salaries are within 1-2 mil (& we all know pujols will want/get the bigger contract) you HAVE to take fielder. he’s just now entering his prime & would be a LH b/n hanley & stanton.
If Pujols does end up asking for $28 million a season and Fielder is asking for $26 million
I’m taking none of the above, personally. Neither player is worth the cash nor the years that are likely going to be required to sign them.
As I mentioned in my offseason plan, I don’t think the Marlins need to sign one of the three top free agents to have a successful offseason. In addition, the team wants to stay at around $90-95 million tops, and arbitration alone puts them at $65 million. Acquiring Fielder or Pujols puts them pretty close to the limit for this season.
Fish Stripes, a Florida Marlins blog
Author, Baseball Prospectus Fantasy
by Michael Jong on Nov 2, 2011 11:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Having said that, Fielder may be looking for $21-22 million
I’m unsure of what he wants and what any team should offer him. The physique is scary, and there is some evidence that heavier players age worse in general than average physique players. I’m not sure if the Marlins want to go seven years and $160 or so million on Fielder.
We’ll find out. It’s part of the excitement of the offseason this year.
Fish Stripes, a Florida Marlins blog
Author, Baseball Prospectus Fantasy
by Michael Jong on Nov 2, 2011 11:36 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd say that Fielder > Pujols
He walks more than Pujols and is younger. I do see the concern that big players like fielder don’t age well though
only thing better than gio for lomo trade...
gio for lomo AND volstad.
The team can just cut Volstad with no consequence
They are probably looking to trade him, but his value is shot at this point.
Fish Stripes, a Florida Marlins blog
Author, Baseball Prospectus Fantasy
by Michael Jong on Nov 1, 2011 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions
My thoughts.
Pujols. is. not. leaving. St. Louis. There’s the end of that discussion.
The idea of Prince in Miami is appealing but unlikely. the Cubs, Tigers and maybe even the Dodgers (depending on who buys the team) still have the ability to outspend Miami, and are all looking to upgrade at 1B (or DH in Detroit’s case).
That said, here are my thoughts:
Lineup:
C – John Buck
1B – Logan Morrison (Derek Lee, if LoMo is traded for other talent)
2B – Omar Infante
3B – Gaby Sanchez (Matt Dominguez, if he can hit)
SS – Hanley Ramirez
RF – Mike Stanton
CF – Chris Coghlan
LF – Grady Sizemore (Endy Chavez, if Sizemore is not available)
Rotation:
1. Josh Johnson
2. Rickey Nolasco
3. Mark Buehrle (or Edwin Jackson or Livan Hernandez [who would be the #5 starter])
4. Anibal Sanchez
5. Brandon Webb (or Chin-Mieng Wang or Erik Bedard)
CP: Matt Capps (or Edward Mujica, with Chad Qualls coming in to fill in the bullpen).
I doubt Sizemore will be available, and if he’s not, Endy Chavez had a pretty good time with the Rangers, and should be inexpensive.
On the off chance that the Marlins want to dump LoMo (because of his mouth, or because there’s a shot at a star pitcher) Derek Lee would be a good way to fill 1B while Gaby covers 3B for Matt Dominguez. He put up some decent numbers in Pittsburgh last year.
Webb, Wang or Bedard should come fairly inexpensively, and if they can overcome their injuries, they would make excellent additions, especially at the back end.
Burhle or Jackson would be great adds, but the market for pitchers might be a bit too rich given the interest that teams like the Yankees and Red Sox have in adding to their rotations. Livan Hernandez would not be a bad consolation prize, but he’d go to the back of the rotation.
Matt Capps could be a quality closer, and should come at a much better price than K-Rod or Heath Bell. Chad Qualls is also on the market, so they might sign him and
Couple of points I'd mention
- All the possible rumors that Sanchez can play third are off, from what I have heard. Talked to a few people who watched him play in Triple-A in his final stint in the minors and they said he does not have the mobility to play the position. The Marlins considered playing LoMo in left field before moving Sanchez to third, which should say something given how bad LoMo has been in left.
- Capps is a classic example of a pitcher who is a closer because he closed before and not because he is good now. I like your second option of getting cheaper “non-closers” and moving Mujica to that role, though. It would be my personal choice if the team decided to avoid going low-rent on a closer.
Fish Stripes, a Florida Marlins blog
Author, Baseball Prospectus Fantasy
Jose Reyes at SS
Hanley moves to 3B
I think that’s the big move, after that they will focus on pitching.
Morrison stays put in LF unless Gaby is traded for pitching, I think Gaby goes before LoMo. LoMo is younger & his upside is better than Gabys.
Center field is a question mark. Maybe a platoon Bonifacio/Petersen/Coghlan
I agree with the sentiment
But the Marlins won’t do it. This is the first time I’ve ever even heard them consider it. I’ll admit, if there was someone to move him, it would be Reyes. But this would also make them give up on Dominguez, which I don’t think they’re ready to do yet.
I could see Ramirez in center field, though 3B is probably his better position.
Fish Stripes, a Florida Marlins blog
Author, Baseball Prospectus Fantasy
It really depends on what Reyes gets.
If its a 9 figure deal, I say no.
It he’s offered 5 yrs $60M or so, I think it’s a good move.
Then I say we pick up Grady Sizemore in an incentive laden deal and stick him in LF.
Move Morrison to first and send Gaby to Oakland for Gio Gonzalez or package him and a prospect or two to Tampa for Shields.
Sign Buehrle. Bring in bullpen depth and promote Mujica to Closer.
Lineup:
1. Reyes (SS)
2. Coughlan (CF)
3. Ramirez (3B)
4. Stanton (RF)
5. Morrison (1B)
6. Sizemore (LF)
7. Buck ©
8. Infante (2B)
9. Pitcher
Pitching Rotation:
1. JJ
2. Gio Gonzalez
3. Mark Buerhle
4. Anibal Sanchez
5. Ricky Nolasco
Bullpen:
Chaote
Dunn
Badenhop
Hensley
Webb
- How bout bringing back the D-train Willis as a lefty specialist?
Ceda
Closer: Mujica
Bench:
Hayes
Sign Ramon Santiago
Bonifacio
Petersen
Watcha Think?
Founder of the "Rob Ryan for Head Coach" Bandwagon.
Assistant Janitor of the Luckfleet
lotta question marks there
- reyes is expecting 18-20 mill/yr. so even if he gets 15-17 mill/yr can’t see the team making playoffs with reyes being highest paid player. would much rather if possible have pujols/fielder for 3-5 mill/year more or spend all of it on SP.
- boni’s gotta be in starting lineup. the guy put up good numbers. even IF he regresses to .275/.335/30 SB how can you justify paying reyes 15+ mill more. and why start infante (bad OBP, bad power, no SBs) over boni? boni has better upside & is cheaper right now.
- doubtful the lomo-gio trade goes through. gio only supposed to make 420K next year i believe. would be nice though.
- i would like to see FO go after at least 4-5 top pitchers (gio, cj wilson, shields, buehrle, etc) & get told no before they consider sizemore. a long term contract for a good #2 or #3 SP would help the team much more than (what’s left of) grady
- no cishek. he’s gonna be really good.
Why start Infante over Boni?
Because Infante should regress upwards and he seems like an elite defender.
Having said that, Bonifacio (sadly) should be in the starting lineup, if only because the team has no other options at either CF or 3B.
And yes I agree, there’s no way Gaby Sanchez is the starter for a package for Gio Gonzalez. I don’t think the Marlins would be capable of acquiring him, as the team has no prospect depth.
Fish Stripes, a Florida Marlins blog
Author, Baseball Prospectus Fantasy
infante is a career .275/.318 hiiter. in his only 4 seasons of 400+ ABs:
2004: 503 AB, .264/.317
2005: 406 AB, .222/.254
2010: 471 AB, .321/.359
2011: 579 AB, .276/.315
bonifacio in his 1st full season: .296/.360
among all 2B hitters in 2011 bonifacio would rank:
.296 AVG: 5th in MLB (2nd NL)
.360 OBP: 4th in MLB (1st NL)
40 SB: 1st in MLB
why is boni supposed to regress down after his 1st full season?
why is omar supposed to regress up when he hit exactly where his career numbers are in?
how can anyone honestly say .296/.360 & 40 SB should not be in the lineup every day?
Because his old seasons are less important than his more current seasons
Infante, 2009-2011: .298/.339/.396
Bonifacio 2009-2011: .274/.333/.351
Not saying Bonifacio is bad (he’s certainly getting better), but Infante has hit for three seasons before looking this bad.Bonifacio has done this well for one year. One is most likely heading upwards, the other one is likely heading downwards a bit.
If I thought Bonifacio was really a .290/.360/.393 hitter, than yes. But there’s a good chance he is worse than that, especially given his 2009 and 2010 seasons. You can’t just forget those.
Fish Stripes, a Florida Marlins blog
Author, Baseball Prospectus Fantasy
agree to disagree i guess
i see a guy who gets 40 SBs & .360 OBP in his first full season and say to myself, “he’s gotta be in the lineup every day. you should be fired for keeping him on the bench.”
you see see a career .318 OBP guy (who’s never shown any power or speed after 3000+ ABs) do exactly what his career numbers would tell you he would and say to yourself, “go look at his numbers as a UT player with the braves. then you’ll see why he should be an everyday player.”
may be i just weigh OBP more heavily than most. especially when a guy has no power or speed.
an important point:
“a guy with a .360 OBP” is not necessarily the same thing as “a .360 OBP guy.”
There’s no question Bonerface made improvement in his approach, most notably in reducing his swings at pitches out of the zone, but there’s no real reason to think such a dramatic improvement is true. You can call it his “first full season” but he’s still the same guy with a sub-310 OBP in more than 600 PAs prior to last season.
If last season means anything, it’s that there’s hope his true talent at the plate is closer to league average than replacement level.
Now, I’m not super sold on Infante’s spectacular defense being something to bank on going forward, and without that, this is certainly a closer comparison than I think most would presume. But depending on how you want to do the whole exercise, even if you want to consider them equals, tie goes to the contract. Infante’s not getting paid to sit on the bench.
Marlins Stadium: When It's Raining, The Roof Will Happen!
by dan 2.0 on Nov 5, 2011 8:55 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
And it's not as if they won't both be starting
After last season, they’ll both find a spot in the lineup unless the Marlins fill some serious gaps.
But Dan’s point regarding Bonifacio remains: just because he did well in “his first full season” doesn’t mean that he will do as well going forward. His 2009 and 2010 seasons count, last I checked. And similarly, just because Infante did not do as well as he did in Atlanta, it doesn’t mean his Atlanta numbers don’t count. I’m not saying “go look at his Atlanta numbers,” I’m saying “go look at his past three years” and compare them to Boni’s. Pretty similar right?
To Dan, I generally agree that Infante’s defense may have been a bit fluky as well. But he shows the skills to be at least average at second, if not better, and he doesn’t have to be a Gold Glover to support his bat at second base. Even with his bat last season, he’d be around an average second baseman if you take away all the defensive gains.
Fish Stripes, a Florida Marlins blog
Author, Baseball Prospectus Fantasy
by Michael Jong on Nov 5, 2011 11:10 PM EDT up reply actions
I'll get into Bonifacio later when I review the rest of the positions
but I’m not saying Bonifacio is bad. He’s clearly not the same guy as he was in 2009. But it’s just not likely that he is an absolute .290/.360 OBP hitter like in 2011. It’s more likely to be somewhere in between. And the same goes for Infante: not quite his numbers in Atlanta, not quite his numbers in Florida, somewhere in between.
Fish Stripes, a Florida Marlins blog
Author, Baseball Prospectus Fantasy
by Michael Jong on Nov 5, 2011 11:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree on some points I may have overlooked...
Considering I did this in like 5 minutes.
- Cishek should be on the team.
- I did list a price range at which I would bring Reyes in. If Reyes lands somewhere at 17M per year, then I agree I would rather spend an additional 3M/Year to bring in Fielder, but you also have to consider he may demand more than the 20M per year range.. Maybe as high as 25M/year, and now you’re looking at a large difference.
- I don’t think Boni has to be in the starting lineup. Boni will surely become the guy that plays 4/7 games due to players resting, and is a great backup to any injuries. Provides a ton of versatility off the bench. Infante is better defensively and last year WAS a regression, so he’s likely gonna put up better numbers.
- I agree about the bio trade, I just felt Lomo could be a base for it. I hear Atlanta is looking to move Jair Jurrjens, would love to have him.
Founder of the "Rob Ryan for Head Coach" Bandwagon.
Assistant Janitor of the Luckfleet
by Zag on Nov 4, 2011 9:02 AM EDT up reply actions
Totally agree about Boni
His utility is his best asset, he’s not great at any position, but he’s competent at nearly every position.
I like the idea of D-Train as a specialist. I had not realized how good his splits were until I checked them.

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