Do the Marlins really have shot at the wildcard?
Do the Marlins really have shot at the wildcard?
As a Marlins fan I think so. After all, there are many ways to look at this.
One way is by numbers and simulation.
Right now the Marlins are 5.5 games back from the San Francisco Giants, who they are conveniently playing. The won the first game, so if they were to sweep them they would be 2.5 games back (providing that the Giants remain the leader) and prompting the front office to grab a couple arms or bats without giving up their own. If they win the series they'll be 4.5 games back. There will be progress but it would still be difficult for them. They play the Padres in San Diego then the Phillies and Cardinals in Miami. If they split the series (6.5 GB) or lose the series (7.5 GB) they're out of the race.
The other way is by looking at the roster.
They jut lost Chris Coghlan to the DL (he went Bill Gramatica after a walkoff victory over the Atlanta Braves) but they are not missing much. Hopefully Logan Morrison will provide some help in left field. I have always been a fan of Emilio Bonifacio and his speed. They have the best pitcher in the game (1.61 ERA) and a couple more solid starters. The bullpen have been pitching well for Edwin Rodriguez. And they have a balanced, small ball based lineup with speed and power. This is what the rest of the team looks like:
Uggla: 19 HR 59 RBI Ramirez: 20 SB Stanton: 39 Games 26 RBI Sanchez: .301 BA Johnson: 1.61 ERA 141K
Nolasco: 11W Nunez: 24/29 SV
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Coghlan out hurts a little...
-28
"Things turn out best for the people who make the best of the way things turn out." John Wooden.
Cogs missing at the top of the order hurts quite a bit
But the key for the Fish is how well Uggla and Hanley play down the stretch. The bullpen will continue to be shaky unless some new arms are acquired (Cantu is all but out of Florida, and Cody could be dealt for the right players), but the inconsistent hitting is what really keeps the Fish from winning close games.
Chris Coghlan is NLRoY 2009 (that's a +1 for me!)

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