ESPN the Magazine ran 100 simulations and concluded the Marlins would finish dead last in the NL East. Good luck with that. If the stat heads want to comment about how their range was 93 to 62 wins, knock yourselves out. But the fact remains, that isn't projecting, anyone could've done that. If your projection range is that large, you are next to useless. And it is time to close the spread sheet and go back to playing "God of War III".
In the simulations the Marlins never won the division once, not that I have a problem with that. However the Nationals did, once. ESPN average number of wins was 74.5 for the Marlins. Woo Hoo!
Thankfully, the magazine didn't just end the story there, it asked one of its reporters to assess the outcomes.
Here is what he had to say in MAN VS. THE MACHINE part of the story:
TIM KURKJIAN SAYS: The Machine needs to learn a thing or two about the NL East, most notably: Never underestimate the Marlins. Despite having the lowest payroll in baseball the past two seasons, they won at least 84 games per year.
The Fish will win 85 games, and they won't finish behind the rebuilding Nationals or the aimless Mets.
Don't know if the Marlins will finish with 85 wins, they most certainly could. But at this juncture in the season 85 wins sounds a lot closer to the outcome than the Marlins finishing dead last in the division.