Bullpen Banter's Marlins Preview and Top 25 Prospects
Hello Marlins Fans! My name is Michael Herrick and I've been an SBN member of various sites for 5 years now. Those of you that frequent John Sickels minorleagueball.com will probably recognize me from running the Community Prospect list this year. I recently partnered with three other long time SBN members(JD Sussman, alskor, mrkupe) to start a website, Bullpen Banter.
About Us from our site:
The Bullpen Banter Team is dedicated to providing outstanding baseball analysis from various points of view. Our website hosts both a chat room and a forum so our readers can constantly interact with a knowledgeable and vibrant baseball community. Each writer represents a different area in the country which provides a unique ability to gauge the thoughts of both the mainstream media and the fans in the region. Additionally, we are always open to new ideas and voices, so feel free to submit a guest piece.
We are currently previewing each team by division, starting with the NL and AL East. Our Marlins preview is up, where we examine the outlook for 2010, the best and worst moves, and prospects to watch in 2010. We take a round table approach to topics giving us differing viewpoints on the same article.
Here is a peek at the Prospect to Watch section of the preview:
Michael Herrick: A 2nd round pick in 2008, Brad Hand showed strong K/9 numbers in the Sally League and he pitched a bit better than the surface numbers indicate as his 4.23 FIP vs. 4.86 ERA shows. He needs to tighten up his control a bit as the walk rate wasn't ideal last year, but he's from Minnesota and cold weather players can take a little longer to develop. Keep an eye on the walk rate and how his other peripherals hold up as he moves to the FSL. Being a pitcher's league anyway, we need to see some marked improvement not just incremental advances to know if we're looking at a breakout year or just a pitcher friendly boost to the stats.
Al Skorupa: Apparently 3B Matt Dominguez's stock has fallen... for a reason I can't discern. He was still #52 overall on my personal top 100. I completely buy his bat and his defense is fantastic. I wouldn't be surprised in the least to see him go out and kill the ball this year, skyrocketing up the prospect lists.
We also have our Top 25 Prospects for 2010 posted with the rest of the Top 100 to follow over the next couple of weeks.
Here is a sample for Mike Stanton:
Notre Dame High School has produced its fair share of notable baseball players. The most famous include Cy Young winner Jack McDowell, 1968 first overall draft pick Tom Foli, and the general manager of the '92,'93, & '08 World Series champions, Pat Gillick. Giancarlo Cruz- "Michael" Stanton has the potential to be among those names with his combination of athleticism and elite power. Stanton is young but relatively polished for a former football star who didn't concentrate fully on baseball until being drafted by the fins 79th overall in 2007. Stanton has deposited 68 baseballs over the fence in first three seasons and is arguably the fourth or fifth best player today from his draft class.
Steve Kuperman: Grade A easy for me, No. 4 on my list currently. If he had played in the FSL the entire year nobody would be asking questions, as he managed to absolutely crush the ball in one of the worst hitters' parks in the minors while cutting his strikeouts substantially. The guy gets tons of praise for work ethic.
JD Sussman: I disagree with your point on Stanton's contact issues. While he has been great thus far, I foresee his contact issues and poor pitch recognition limiting him offensively. What keeps him ranked so highly is that he should have solid defensive value in both his arm and his range. For me, he has the highest bust rate of any player int he top 10. If those issues really hurt him, in a years time he could be pretty far down the list, despite his accomplishments at a young age. I have him slightly lower at 9.
Michael Herrick: I can understand you knocking Stanton down a few spots due to the contact/strikeout issues, JD. I know the High A stint is a SSS, but his K rate wasn't horrible there. I think as long as he's not rushed too far, too fast the plate discipline can improve some, at least into a somewhat manageable "less than 30% K rate" type of range. I guess I tend to see him as more of a .260 hitter in the bigs as opposed to something in the .230 range. That power is just such a valuable tool though, I really can't see him lower than 5.
Al Skorupa: Strikeouts a concern? Yes. Special bat despite that? Absolutely.
His 80 power is something that we can be fairly certain will come with him to the majors. He does enough other things well to still project as an offensive force despite some questions about his contact ability, patience and strikeouts.
Stanton is plenty athletic and a good fielder. He could very easily end up the best major leaguer out of the top 5 prospects, but I'm not ready to bet on that just yet.
So if you have a chance, stop by and let us know what you think. If you're interested in a guest writing spot, contact us and we will give you that opportunity.
Thanks for your time,
The Bullpen Banter Team
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I agree completely about dominguez
His park adjusted numbers are pretty much the same between ‘08 and ’09, and he managed to up his walk rate and down his K rate… and somehow he falls out of most people’s top 100. He did look pretty bad in AA but he was one of the youngest players there.
Exactly
I think too many times in prospecting people take a “what have you done for me lately” approach, and with Dominguez posting subpar surface numbers in AA and the AFL they throw up their hands and say he can’t hit. If they’d check the BABIP’s for those two very small samples, they’d see he was extremely unlucky. He plays excellent defense at a valuable position, TotalZone had him at +18 runs/150 in 2009. His BB and K rates are both trending in the right directions and he has 25 HR pop in his bat. I made this comparison before, but even if he’s a low average hitter his whole career he could be Pedro Feliz with a better walk rate, and that’s a 3 win player right there. He looks to me to have a 4 to 4.5 win peak honestly, as I think he can get his average into the .260-.270 range consistently.
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I forgot to mention
that not only does Dominguez land well inside my top 100 list, but he’s comfortably inside the top 50 at #43. I rate him as the 3rd best 3B prospect in baseball behind only Pedro Alvarez and Lonnie Chisenhall.
Check Bullpen Banter again on Monday and for our next set of prospect rankings we release, I think you’ll be pleasantly surprised with the results.
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Totally agree.
NNY and I agree that the park-adjustments make it clear that Dominguez was just fine last season.
Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog
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intresting stuff
2009 NY Phin PhansFantasy League Champion
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