Marlins rotation starting to come into view

by craig on Mar 22, 2010 4:52 PM EDT in News and Rumors

The Marlins starting pitching rotation is starting to take shape, well, sorta.

Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco were always in the rotation. Anibal Sanchez is now in. That leaves two openings. Based on everything I've seen and heard, Hensley and Chris Volstad are the frontrunners for the other two spots, with Miller, Rick VandenHurk and Hayden Penn looking like the odd men out at the moment. Penn, who is out of options, hurt his chances with Sunday's rough outing when he gave up four runs on five hits and a pair of walks in just 1 2/3 innings. VandenHurk threw four scoreless innings on Sunday. But it was done in near anonymity, in a minor league game on one of the back fields as the Marlins were playing the Nationals inside the stadium. That manager Fredi Gonzalez and front office wizards Larry Beinfest and Mike Hill watched Penn and Johnson pitch in the regular game against Washington probably doesn't bode well for VandenHurk (0-1, 6.23). Miller (1-0, 10.80) has not exactly had a great spring and looks likely for New Orleans.

I'm a little confused about what Volstad has done right this spring. The spring stats sure don't show a great improvement. In 2009, his K/9 was 6.06 this spring it is 3.65. His 2009 BB/9 was 3.34 while this spring it is presently 5.11. His K/BB this spring is 0.71 while last year he threw at a 1.81 clip. His batting average against was .274 last season and thus far this spring it is .380. The other troubling stat is he is averaging 11.68 pitches per inning which is tops among the starters. The area where he has shown improvement is his ground ball to fly ball ratio: it was 1.47 in 2009 and this spring it is 1.91. If you are sinker pitcher, such as Volstad, it is good to see that metric improve. But still, there is something about the way he has performed that seems to indicate he still hasn't fixed all of his pitching issues. Yes, yes, I know that spring training stats should be taken with a grain of salt. That said though, for some reason the Marlins front office uses them to determine the opening season roster, and I'm having a hard time seeing the improvement over last season.

Then again, I haven't seen him throw this spring and maybe the coaches and the scouts are seeing some marked improvement which isn't showing up in the simple stats. Always a possibility.

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Aw, what?

VandenHurk deserves the spot over Volstad, and definitely over Hensley. Of course, it’s possible things will change…

Bass is a kind of fish.

by 3.3seconds on Mar 22, 2010 6:15 PM EDT reply actions

They probably like Volstad's potential a lot more for this year

They both had scary HR/9 rates last year, and honestly Volstad has the best chance to straighten that out since up until last year keeping the ball in the yard was one of his strengths. With the way he’s looked this spring though I agree Hurk should get the spot, at least for a little bit. It’s probably best for Volstad to go down to AAA and fix whatever happened to his sinker, then if he looks decent/good we can call him up around may sometime.

As for Hensley… that’s just sad that he might be in our rotation.

by tdp992 on Mar 22, 2010 8:27 PM EDT up reply actions

HR/9 rates seem like a potential luck stat to me.

Not saying it’s not a real thing, just saying I wouldn’t read too much into one year.

And yeah, I’d give the last two spots to Volstad and VandenHurk.

Bass is a kind of fish.

by 3.3seconds on Mar 22, 2010 8:40 PM EDT up reply actions

That's why I like Volstad more than Hurk

The homerun fest that killed Volstad last year was a one year thing, as he was great at keeping his hr rate low all throughout the minors and in ‘08. Hurk on the other hand has always had a problem with the long ball. For what it’s worth he has an enormous flyball rate, a lot higher than Volstad’s.

by tdp992 on Mar 22, 2010 8:57 PM EDT up reply actions

No offence,

But why are you so down on hensley? Did I miss something?

by Pepsidude95 on Mar 22, 2010 11:33 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

Well, did you miss his career?

Aside from one decent season in 2006, which was aided by the fact that he pitched all his home games in Petco Park — seriously, that 3.71 ERA is more like a 4.50 by real park standards — he’s been horrendous. It’s one thing with a guy like Volstad, who hasn’t proven himself but has time. At 30, it’s unlikely Hensley will suddenly become a major-league pitcher.

I mean, for me, it’s not even saying Hensley WON’T be a valid fifth starter — I’ll believe it when I see it, but I wouldn’t be TOTALLY shocked. It’s saying there are guys with way more potential than Hensley, guys whose potential we’d just be squandering if we gave the spot to a 30-year-old (more or less) career minor-leaguer. And that would be okay if Hensley was going to get us a better result now, but I see no reason to believe that.

Bass is a kind of fish.

by 3.3seconds on Mar 23, 2010 2:41 AM EDT up reply actions

Thanks

I didn’t know that! Good info

by Pepsidude95 on Mar 25, 2010 10:39 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Re: Hensley

3.3, completely agree: one good spring does not a solid starter make. I think he makes a nice insurance policy should injuries strike, but other than that…

by guitarist416 on Mar 23, 2010 1:54 PM EDT reply actions

Yeah, that's the thing.

I wouldn’t mind Hensley as a long reliever, but I feel like Volstad and VandenHurk are both younger and already better.

Well, I would mind Hensley as a long reliever, because Badenhop is ALSO younger and better.

Okay. If, for some reason, we were carrying two long relievers, I’d give Hensley the spot. He’s better than Hayden Penn, and both West and Miller need serious minor league work. But not over two guys who have looked at least semi-decent on the major-league level within the last couple years.

Bass is a kind of fish.

by 3.3seconds on Mar 23, 2010 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions