Opening Day line up
What is everyone's predictions for the opening day line up?
I think it should go like this:
Coghlan LF
Ross CF
Hanley SS
Cantu 3B
Uggla 2B
Sanchez 1B
Baker C
Carroll RF
Johnson P
Thoughts?
I got Ross in CF and Carroll in RF- I think they need to go ahead and give him a shot now. Maybin is still struggling and i think day-to-day BC could be a very productive player. He is already the best outfielder we have and he has proven if given AB's constantly he is going to produce. Look what he has already done in spring training with a chance to hit a few days in a row.
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thats actually not a bad prediction.. but i think Maybin should be healthy by opening day
If it was up to me it would go like this:
1. Maybin CF
2. Coghlan LF
3. Hanley SS
4. Cantu 3B
5. Uggla 2B
6. Ross RF
7. Baker C
8. Sanchez 1B
9. Johnson P
But I do hope they give Caroll a shot if Maybin is still struggling
If it were up to me
I would jump in the DeLorean and stop Beinfest once or twice.
What the lineup could have looked like.
Coghlan
Hanley
Cabrera
Willingham
Cantu
Uggla
Ross
Baker
JJ
Barring a DeLorean, I think Stanton is ready and definitely want Lowell for 1st or 3rd.
Branyan would have been OK but Oh well.
Sanchez and Logan don’t look ready. Jorge Jimenez? I didn’t know the Red Sox were a charity.
Coghlan
Stanton
Hanley
Cantu
Uggla
Lowell
Baker
Ross
Craig is to FishStripes what Pat Sajak is to Wheel of Fortune. Sexy.
Well, hell.
If we’re turning back time, why not just hang onto Adrian Gonzalez?
Bass is a kind of fish.
Welllll...
…we got Gary Sheffield for Hoffman, so I think we’ll let that one stand.
(I didn’t even know about Santana. That’s crazy. Though reading the description I’m looking at, why didn’t the Twins just take Santana themselves?)
Bass is a kind of fish.
haha fair enough
we did get a good player for Hoffman… but crazy how the Marlins were the ones who drafted Santana
As good as Gonzo is
I would trade him everyday to win the World Series, and without Ugueth Urbina, the Marlins would not have won it all.
That being said, I would sub Jason Stokes and Jeff Allison in the trade instead of AGon, for sure.
Craig is to FishStripes what Pat Sajak is to Wheel of Fortune. Sexy.
I don't see that.
One relief pitcher did not make the difference that year. Anyway, you can sign good relief pitchers for nothing
And if you add Gonzalez, who’s basically the second-best hitter in baseball right now, to the current Marlins lineup, this is a championship-quality team THIS year. (And last year, etc.)
I mean, it’s all hindsight anyway.
Bass is a kind of fish.
I smoke rocks Joe Rogan
Urbina held down the 9th inning against the NY Yankees, Chicago Cubs w/ Sosa, SF Giants w/Bonds, and Philadelphia Phillies w/ Ryan Howard. Of course, there may be shutdown closers just wandering the streets the Marlins could have signed.
Adrian Gonzo is in no way the second best hitter in baseball. He may be in the top 10, but by no standard is he number 2.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=68798
Craig is to FishStripes what Pat Sajak is to Wheel of Fortune. Sexy.
How about, say, road OPS?
The effect of San Diego on Gonzalez can’t be underestimated. He had an .859 OPS at home and a 1.045 on the road. The latter is perilously close to Pujols’ road 1.093, and well above every other road OPS in the league.
And yeah, Urbina was a 2.81 ERA pitcher in ‘03. A 2.81 ERA one-inning reliever might be a LITTLE difficult to find, but do you really think a 3.50 ERA one-inning reliever would’ve made that much of a difference? And as last year demonstrates, you can find those gathering dust on the waiver wire.
Bass is a kind of fish.
Oh God don't bring VORP in here
VORP is useless. No offensive measure should adjust for the position of the player. Plus, VORP uses BP’s worst run estimator (MLVr, which uses Runs Created as their run estimator).
Last season, A-Gon put up around a .419 park-adjusted wOBA (using five-year regressed park factors provided by Patriot, the same ones FanGraphs uses). For a comparison point, Hanley put up a .412 wOBA. Prince Fielder put up something around .420 (can’t remember off the top of my head the PF for Milwaukee, but I think it’s close to even). Pujols put up a .456 wOBA.
Having said that, I also don’t think we can label him the second best hitter in baseball. He’s had two good seasons at the plate, we still have to wait to see a bit more.
Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog
Writer, Beyond the Box Score
Writer, Baseball Propsectus Fantasy Beat
Writer, Heater Magazine
ross seems to be only prob here
he’s a righty that swings for the fences & has already had enough ABs for everyone to assume he’s not going to improve on his career .320 OBP without major changes.
seems like having maybin in there if healthy is better. or baker (career .364 OBP). or even boni since his OBP is slightly worse than cody’s & any increase to his OBP would make him a much better 1 or 2 hitter than cody.
How's he any different from Cantu?
Aside from the fact that Ross is a strong fielder (at a hitter’s position), whereas Cantu is either a decent fielder at an extreme hitter’s position or an atrocious fielder at a moderate position?
I’ll admit that Ross’ fairly average contact hitting and lack of skill at drawing walks mean that he has more room to fall short than he does to improve. (Unless, of course,he improves at drawing walks.)
But if you look at the stats for outfielders these days, there’s a surprising lack of really amazing hitters. They’ve all gone over to first base. (Or DH.) 61 outfielders had enough at-bats to qualify for the title last year. Ross’ .790 was good for 37th of 61 — almost the definition of league-average. (Okay, slightly below… but then again, slightly above, when you factor in the 29 spots that weren’t regularly filled by ANYONE.)
Whereas Cantu’s .788 — aided by a suspiciously high BABIP — was 21st of 24 among first basemen. Count him as a third baseman, and he’s 13th of 20 — almost exactly the same location relative to his position as Ross with outfielders. But Ross is a strong defensive outfielder, and Cantu is a terrible defender at third. I’ll take Ross in right over Cantu anywhere.
Also, remember that RF is a position which is basically being held for Stanton at this point. So Ross doesn’t have to be our permanent solution. Until/unless Matt Dominguez makes the majors, which is neither an impending situation nor a sure thing, we don’t have an answer at third base.
If we’re going to have a problem, and it doesn’t involve the question marks surrounding Maybin/the first basemen, it’s clearly Cantu first.
Bass is a kind of fish.
I think he means a problem batting second in the lineup
Not a problem overall. No need to jump on Cantu’s issues when we’re discussing batting Ross second.
That said, I’d say that’s a bad idea. You want one of your three best hitters batting second, and Ross is not one of them. Here’s my lineup against righties:
LF Coghlan
2B Dan Uggla
1B Jorge Cantu
SS Hanley Ramirez
RF Cody Ross
CF Cameron Maybin
C John Baker
1B Gaby Sanchez
Pitcher
That’s based on optimization rules from The Book. You want your No. 1, 2, and 4 hitters the best. You want your 1 and 2 to be focused on OBP over power, with no. 1 drawing the most walks (as walks are more valuable at the 1-slot than anywhere else). You want the cleanup guy to have the most power. No. 3 and 5 need to be your next best hitters, then go down the line from there.
Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog
Writer, Beyond the Box Score
Writer, Baseball Propsectus Fantasy Beat
Writer, Heater Magazine
That said, that won't happen.
Here’s what probably will happen:
LF Chris Coghlan
CF Cameron Maybin
SS Hanley Ramirez
3B Jorge Cantu
2B Dan Uggla
RF Cody Ross
C John Baker
1B Gaby Sanchez
Not bad, but we’re not using the 2-slot effectively.
Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog
Writer, Beyond the Box Score
Writer, Baseball Propsectus Fantasy Beat
Writer, Heater Magazine
This seems the most likely
I thought I heard in an interview that Maybin was already penciled in as the opening day #2. I’d like to see him get a shot. Other than that, there’s no real surprises except that Gaby/Logan race for first.
You think they're going to bat Cantu over Uggla?
I feel like Uggla’s the power hitter in the lineup.
Bass is a kind of fish.
I do too
But the Marlins like Cantu’s clutchitude over Uggla’s swing-and-missingness (made up words, I know). They’ll undoubtedly bat Cantu cleanup, as they did last year. With most of last season’s team intact, I don’t think Fredi will want to tinker too much with the lineup.
Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog
Writer, Beyond the Box Score
Writer, Baseball Propsectus Fantasy Beat
Writer, Heater Magazine
Ah, I see.
Yeah, there’s no way Cody should bat second.
Bass is a kind of fish.
Why not Uggla in the 4 spot and Hanley at 2?
Uggla should have more power than Hanley, and Hanley’s OBP will undoubtedly be better than Uggla’s. I’m guessing that is has to do with Danny taking more walks maybe?
Meh, it's probably interchangeable
They both slug well, but Hanley’s contact + power may be a bit more suitable batting fourth than second. I like the idea however.
Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog
Writer, Beyond the Box Score
Writer, Baseball Propsectus Fantasy Beat
Writer, Heater Magazine
Why start his arbitration clock this season?
First off, judging his performance off of Spring without considering his minor league numbers seems like a bad idea. He’s had maybe 20 PA in Spring, there’s no way we could know how good he’ll be.
Perhaps more importantly, I don’t think there’s any point in starting his arbitration clock if we already have enough people to man the position for 2010. We have a starting lineup, leaving Stanton on the bench instead of letting him work on his contact issues in Double-A Jacksonville would be a really bad developmental and economic move on our part, I would say.
Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog
Writer, Beyond the Box Score
Writer, Baseball Propsectus Fantasy Beat
Writer, Heater Magazine
i didnt mean the bench
i meant as a starter… just a thought, who knows right? look what happened with Cabrera
Look what happened with Maybin.
Not that I don’t think Maybin will work it out one day, but despite the fact that he’s basically still a rookie, he’s already coming up on arbitration very soon. That wasn’t our choice — it was the Tigers’ choice.But we’re stuck paying Maybin or dealing him a few years sooner than we’d like, right? Why do that with Stanton when we don’t have to?
Bass is a kind of fish.
I don't know
He essentially has one season under his belt with his two cups of coffee and the 200 PA last season. He’s logged 288 PA but also about four months on a major league roster, which I think approximately equates a season for arbitration purposes. He certainly won’t qualify for Super 2, so I think we have him cheap for 2010 and 2011. Little disappointing, but it happens.
Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog
Writer, Beyond the Box Score
Writer, Baseball Propsectus Fantasy Beat
Writer, Heater Magazine
Oh, wait...
…I thought the clock started on his first season, and proceeded at the same pace regardless of whether he remained in the majors. Does the clock… stop if we send him back to the minors for most of the season? Does it move more slowly? How does this clock work?
Bass is a kind of fish.
It's based on major league service time
So if he’s up, it counts, if he’s down, it doesn’t. They count a year as like 4 months on the major league roster (not exactly sure about the time, but it’s around there). That’s why you can get teams manipulating service time to get another year out of a player (J.J. Hardy getting sent down for two weeks last season to give him another year of arbitration eligibility, for example). We still have him for two seasons before arbitration I believe.
Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog
Writer, Beyond the Box Score
Writer, Baseball Propsectus Fantasy Beat
Writer, Heater Magazine
still think maybin will be startin
official creator of the "D-train" Demaryius Thomas draft bandwagon
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the lousaka monster should be a pro bowler
"We liked a couple of those receivers up there, but we didn't feel there was a guy that was going to come in and make more of a contribution than a linebacker." — Dave Wannstedt, on why he chose Eddie Moore over Anquan Boldin in the 2003 draft
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