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Around SBN: Explaining Jeremy Lin's Early, Surprising Success

In a process similar to the one Steve Sommer used with his defensive projections seen here, I tried to find Chris Coghlan's estimated defense at second base using the Fan's Scouting Report, minor league TotalZone data, and Jeff Z's UZR projections.

almost 2 years ago Redcap_tiny SFiercex4 6 comments 2 recs  | 

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I hope this happens as soon as they trade Uggla.

Not that I want to see Uggla go, but given that it’s essentially a foregone conclusion, it doesn’t make any sense to waste left field on Coghlan or Coghlan on left field. I feel like .290/.360/.450 is a reasonable projection for Coghlan…. those are very good numbers for a 2B, but a little problematic for a corner outfielder.

(Who knows, maybe they can trade Uggla for a talented outfielder… that’s going to be a problem. Ross is a decent stopgap, but unless Maybin’s developed rapidly, we don’t have a single above-average hitter in the outfield.)

It's a good thing Larry Bird's initials weren't MJ. '80s basketball was confusing enough -- Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan, Marles Jarkley, Mominique Jilkins... Makeem Jolajuwon...

by 3.3seconds on Mar 3, 2010 6:59 PM EST reply actions  

Depends on what you call "average"

I’m pretty sure Cody is good for an average hitter (.340 wOBA is about 5 runs/162 games better than average). Maybin is projected to have a decent year, and I have him as a tad above average in 2010, which I think we would all take.

Then again, I don’t like to adjust offense based on position, but rather adjust defense based on position.

by SFiercex4 on Mar 3, 2010 11:19 PM EST up reply actions  

I'd call Cody just about average, maybe slightly below.

He’s obviously got some decent power, but not quite enough to make up for his lack of skill at getting on base. Still, there are worse hitters out there, even in the outfield.

It's a good thing Larry Bird's initials weren't MJ. '80s basketball was confusing enough -- Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan, Marles Jarkley, Mominique Jilkins... Makeem Jolajuwon...

by 3.3seconds on Mar 4, 2010 1:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Technically, a .340 or so wOBA is above average

Splitting hairs really, though. It’s like 5 runs better, so we’re not talking much really.

Cody’s more or less an average player, it’s something I am more than happy with.

by SFiercex4 on Mar 4, 2010 10:43 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, but I'm a little dubious of him.

I feel like, if anything happens to his power, he doesn’t have a solid grounding at the plate to back it up. And what if people start throwing him breaking balls? I don’t think he’ll be able to compensate by drawing walks, like Uggla.

Then again, corner outfielders are WEAK these days. I feel like, at some point, all the one-dimensional hitters shifted to first base. (If not, indeed, DH.)

It's a good thing Larry Bird's initials weren't MJ. '80s basketball was confusing enough -- Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan, Marles Jarkley, Mominique Jilkins... Makeem Jolajuwon...

by 3.3seconds on Mar 5, 2010 2:10 PM EST up reply actions  

The projections like Cody in 2010

Most of them have him in the .340-.350 wOBA range. So he’s pretty much above average in the sense that his power brings him up more than his on base skills bring him down. Sort of like Adrian Beltre.

by tdp992 on Mar 4, 2010 8:08 PM EST up reply actions  

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