Uggla out, Is there a bright side?
There is no need to look back at the past, making comments about Dan Uggla or the front office of the Florida Marlins. We all know their style, and we all know that they try to do what is best for the team. Whether we, the fans of this baseball team, agree with it or not, is completely up to us. It is easy to sit here and criticize, but it doesn't take much thinking to realize that something good might come out of this.
Let's review. The Marlins lost Dan Uggla, Cameron Maybin, and Andrew Miller. The return products were Dustin Richardson, Ryan Webb, Edward Mujica, Omar Infante, and Mike Dunn. Those are the names of five big league ready, but more importantly big league proven, baseball players. Out of the five, four of them will be added to a bullpen that in 2010 could have arguably been called the worst in baseball. While the setup role got filled towards the middle of the season, the closer role was a problem from Week 1. Leo Nunez is not a proven closer, and Clay Hensley can only be efficient for so long. Although most of these arms will be used in the later innings, not including the ninth, they will help starting pitchers earn more wins throughout the course of the season.
It is obvious that Josh Johnson is a 20 game a year winner, and will some day most likely earn a Cy Young. In 2010, the bullpen blew 7of Josh Johnson's potential wins, or games the Marlins were leading in until the bullpen was called upon. One of the most reliable starters in the game, Johnson is the type of guy that will blame himself, when it was really his counterparts to blame. With the addition of two young lefties and two talented right handers, it is safe to infer that Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco's win total, assuming they are healthy throughout the year, combined should reach the mid-30s. More reliable arms in the bullpen will result in more wins for the starting pitchers.
With the departure of Dan Uggla earlier today, the position of second base is currently vacant. It has previously been determined that Chris Coghlan, once healthy, will play at third base. The Fish will either look for a cheap CF, or give Scott Cousins a look. Omar Infante, one of the two pieces sent to the Marlins from the Braves, will most likely be the Opening Day second baseman. The irony behind this is Uggla was not voted into the All-Star Game, while Infante, being the super utility player he is, was. Uggla and teammates felt that he deserved to be there, but the managers begged to differ. The two will now be swapping places.
There may be one individual, however, that most are forgetting about. Does the name Donnie Murphy ring a bell? If it doesn't, Murphy was that guy that just came up with walk-off hit after walk-off hit. Towards the waning days of the season, Murphy broke his wrist and didn't appear in another game. It appears that he will be ready for Spring Training in February. While Murphy will not be a favorite to start at second, he may see significant time there and in center field. Perhaps a platoon situation, with Scott Cousins? While we know we won't be hearing "His name is Dan Uggla" this season, it may not hurt to hear "Donnie bleepin' Murphy" a few times. Uggla's departure also allowed the team to sign free agent catcher John Buck. Buck will be a nice addition to the Marlins, and once John Baker is back, the catching situation will be the best its been in a while.
While it is the responsibility of fans to criticize each and every move the front office makes, whether it be positive or negative, they do know what is best for their team. The bullpen was a priority, and they took care of it. Although they will be losing several homers, walks, and RBIs, the Marlins now know that the offense will have to step up, and will most likely be successful after being presented with this challenge. Many of the rookies will be entering their sophomore years, which means they will know what to expect, and be ready to contribute. The veterans are the veterans, and they will be in control of this very young team. Being optimistic, this trade may work out for the best in the long run.
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we'll see
the richardson guy is basically another pinto, with a high ERA.
as of now, i believe uggla trade depends on 2 things:
1 – can buck stay healthy & hit 20+ HRs & .280+? ie replace most of uggla production at around half the price
2 – will the fish actually spend other leftover uggla $ on a real SP rather than a guy on the wayy cheap? ie add real value to the club rather than simply cut payroll & sign cheaper replacement/s
the pitching needs to be improved. no guarantees JJ & nolasco will be healthy for any (entire) year. no guarantees volstad or sanabia improve &/or do not decline. we need a IPs eater & another veteran (that’s more than a UT player).
though i wouldn’t mind seeing a big LH bat in this lineup…
Likely answers
1) Buck isn’t a .280 hitter, nor does he need to be. As a hitter, think of him as a Mike Jacobs with less power. Yes, I know that sounds terrible, but since Buck is a catcher, you’re OK with that kind of production. I have him as slightly worse than an average hitter, for what it’s worth.
2) The payroll is capped at around $50M. The Marlins are likely to have $3-4M left, from various sources. Javy Vazquez was a name that came up, and that may be a good deal for the Marlins. Wait for a while as the market develops and players late in the offseason start bringing their price down. That’s when the team will make its move.
Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog
Writer, Beyond the Box Score
Writer, Baseball Propsectus Fantasy Beat
Writer, Heater Magazine
sigh...
buck hit .281 with 20+ HRs last year. no one’s saying he will automatically produce that every year, but for 6 mill/year he better be do better than his career averages. if he can’t hit above .250 or get 40+ xbh then there is no justification for paying him the money. the team expects him to produce & that means they see him as better than “a Mike Jacobs with less power.”. im not sure why you can’t see that……
Here's the thing
Mike Jacobs with less power playing catcher is significantly more valuable than Mike Jacobs with less power playing first base or something. And by Mike Jacobs, I mean Jacobs from 2006-2008, not the minor league filler from the last few seasons. Jacobs was an average hitter when he was with, that’s just not that good for a first baseman.
Catchers don’t ever have to be good hitters to be worth money; being a catcher on its own is worth money. Buck could be a below average hitter and still be worth close to his contract. I have him projected at probably being overpaid by about $3M over the course of his deal. That’s not too bad, though with the Marlins it’s a little more damaging given their lack of funds.
Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog
Writer, Beyond the Box Score
Writer, Baseball Propsectus Fantasy Beat
Writer, Heater Magazine
There is no way that Donnie Murphy is good enough to start for this team
He’s a bench bat at best. Let’s not crown anyone after 47 PA.
Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog
Writer, Beyond the Box Score
Writer, Baseball Propsectus Fantasy Beat
Writer, Heater Magazine
Defense!
The bright side is that the Marlins traded away one of the worst defensive 2nd baseman in the majors. And according to some scouts Dunn has closer potential. So the Marlins sacrificed HRs for a defensive upgrade and a bullpen arm with potential. Losing Uggla wont affect the team much (in terms of wins) if defense and pitching improve. Besides if Stanton and Morrison develop into the players the Marlins expect they will make up for that run production.
Optimism for Stanton + Morrison is a little high right now
Morrison’s BB% is going to fall, and he isn’t likely to hit .351 on balls in play over a full season. Yes, I think he’ll “improve,” in that his true talent level will be better than it was in 2010. But that doesn’t mean his 2010 was his true talent:
Here’s my crude projection for Morrison, with no uptick for improvement via age (just a weighted average w/ regression):
.265/.351/.414, .340 wOBA
Given what he’s shown us so far, would any of you be surprised if you saw that? Now maybe he improves on that with experience/filling out, to something like:
.275/.365/.440, around .365 wOBA
It would be nice, but it would also be the same production we saw last year. Same situation with Stanton, but with even more downside (and upside) risk because of the strikeout issues.
In short, don’t expect them to automatically improve upon their observed 2010 performances. They will improve, but we may not be able to see it.
Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog
Writer, Beyond the Box Score
Writer, Baseball Propsectus Fantasy Beat
Writer, Heater Magazine
is there EVER a bright side with a marlin's trade?
well, we still have hanley…
Miami's Superstarts: Brandon Marshall, Karlos Dansby, Vontae Davis (just wait), Lebron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, and Hanley Ramirez :)
Hell Yes there is!
We have bolstered our bullpen, our defense, and our starting pitching and who’s to say we will stop here? I liked Uggla, but one player does not make a team, especially in baseball and we are trying to make a winning team and so far I am really liking the moves we are making to try and make that dream a reality.

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