Chris Coghlan NL ROY?

by craig on Sep 8, 2009 4:45 PM EDT in News and Rumors

Chris Coghlan is finally getting some national exposure in the National League Rookie of the Year Race.

Ken Rosenthal has this to say: Coghlan should win NL ROY after big second half

Coghlan, the Marlins' left fielder, isn't as well-known a rookie as Phillies left-hander J.A. Happ or Braves righty Tommy Hanson, but he should be.

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Coghlan, 24, is third in the N.L. in batting with a .376 average since the All-Star break. He has a higher on-base/slugging percentage than Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen and Rockies center fielder Dexter Fowler, the latter of whom has not played since Aug. 24 because of a bruised right knee. Brewers third baseman Casey McGehee is closer to Coghlan in OPS but has nearly 150 fewer plate appearances.

To which Rob Neyer retorted in his post: Ranking NL's top rookies

For example, I had no idea how well Coghlan's been playing. Last time I checked -- back in June, probably -- he was just sort of sputtering along with no talk of any award, and now he's the best Rookie of the Year candidate in the league, with a .310/.382/.448 line that's easily the best among the three qualifying rookies (Fowler and Colby Rasmus being the others). That said, McCutchen's right behind Coghlan, OPS- and PA-wise, and he's got more doubles, more triples, and more home runs. Oh, and he's also far more valuable with the glove.

So among the hitters, McCutchen's actually the guy.

Neyer is using season totals for his ranking whereas Rosenthal is using since the All-Star break. So the methodology is different and leads the author to different conclusions. But one thing of note is both think the winner for the award this year should be a position player.

Okay, let's look at their season stats.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Chris Coghlan	103	397	65	123	20	4	9	40	46	68	6	2	.310	.382	.448

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Andrew McCutchen	83	333	57	93	20	6	11	45	40	63	16	4	.279	.357	.474

All I can tell is he is basing giving the McCutchen the nod due to him being a better defender at this point in their respective careers. And Mr. Neyer has the right to value defense highly in his selection and use it as the tie-breaker.

But one could argue that being only the second rookie in the last 60 years to record at least 47 hits in a month should count for something. Also Coghlan has been important part of the Marlins making a playoff run. And while I'm sure McCutchen did his best trying to help the Pirates avoid their 17-straight losing season, it didn't happen.

There are still 25 games left so it may be too early to breakout all the arguments. But I guess the most important part of all of this is: Chris Coghlan is starting to get national attention from the sports writters. And that is a good thing.

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Does anyone have good defensive stats to prove what Neyer is saying?

Because the only play I can recall McCutcheon for defensively was a horribly misplayed ball that soared over his head for a triple.

The Player's Commenter

by ocelotfox on Sep 8, 2009 4:50 PM EDT reply actions

Either UZR or WAR, which has a defensive component, shows this

Coghlan’s stats

McCutchen’s stats

And I think Neyer favors WAR

by craig on Sep 8, 2009 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Thanks Craig

McCutcheon is a better fielder, but he’s not so much better that it should be the deciding factor. I kinda feel that it’s Neyer’s way of justifying a pick he already made months ago. But then again, I’m biased towards Coghlan, seeing as I’ve seen him play more often.

The Player's Commenter

by ocelotfox on Sep 8, 2009 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions

I tend to agree with Neyer that defense should count.

The Ryan Howards of the game are too often rewarded over those who can actually play both ways. In Coghlan’s case, what impresses us so much—his seamless switch from 2B to LF—may hurt his ROY chances. Awards voters don’t exactly take left-fielders seriously.

That’s why I’m hoping Coghlan’s numbers keep shooting up—it’s harder to make a case for McCutchen if Coghlan leaves him behind offensively. And of course, a Marlins playoff push would also boost Coghlan immeasurably. It worked for Dontrelle over Webb.

Sadly, I still think it’s Happ’s to lose. Really, Happ would have to melt down over the final month. It’s like he’s been at the top of the rookie class for so long this year, writers are getting bored and are looking at guys like McCutchen and Coghlan to spice it up a little.

by Fishcrazy on Sep 8, 2009 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions

My opinion

I’ve had McCutchen on my fantasy team since he was called up, and he’s contributed solidly that whole time. I’ve just picked up Coghlan, whose on my favorite team obviously, because he’s had a tremendous month and showing no signs of stopping. I think McCutchen has been more valuable consistently… sadly.

Tonights Picks:
24823
Coghlan
Beltran does not get on base in his return

by jrsyeagle on Sep 8, 2009 6:04 PM EDT reply actions

Rookie of the Year shouldn't take team success into account.

Granted, I don’t think ANY individual baseball award should take team performance into account. The fact is, baseball is an individual game played by teams — if your teammates are chumps, there is nothing you can do to make them not chumps, and vice versa. All you can do is the hitting, pitching, and/or fielding that you actually do.

That much having been said, even if you do believe in some kind of mystical notion of “leadership” as a thing that has a tangible effect on other players’ on-field ability, that’s relevant to the MVP. Maybe the Cy Young. But by definition, rookies aren’t leaders. They don’t lead. And if they do lead, you’ve either got some kind of weird locker-room situation, or you’ve got a team composed entirely of rookies. Or… something.

He's currently two-thirds man, one-third amazing. Which, let's face it, is still a pretty good ratio.

by 3.3seconds on Sep 8, 2009 10:47 PM EDT reply actions