Marlins playoff hopes

by craig on Sep 22, 2009 10:24 AM EDT in News and Rumors

The Marlins chances of making the playoffs are pretty dim, but stranger things have happened.

Here are the NL East standings:

NL East Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
Philadelphia	87	61	.587	0	Won 1
Florida	80	70	.533	8	Lost 1
Atlanta	80	70	.533	8	Won 1
New York	65	86	.430	23.5	Lost 1
Washington	51	98	.342	36.5	Lost 2

(updated 9.22.2009 at 9:59 AM EDT)

The Marlins have 12 games remaining, so even if they go 12-0 and the Phillies go 6-8 the Fish will be eliminated. With the Marlins still having to play the Phillies 6 more times they can put a pretty good size dent in their loss column. Unfortunately, the Phillies are going to play 4 games against the hapless Astros and 4 against an inconsistent Brewers team. Who knows, maybe the two will help out.

The wild card looks a little better, but not much.

National League Wild Card Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
Colorado	85	65	.566	0	Won 2
San Francisco	81	69	.540	4	Won 1
Atlanta	80	70	.533	5	Won 1
Florida	80	70	.533	5	Lost 1
Chicago	77	72	.516	7.5	Won 2
Milwaukee	74	76	.493	11	Lost 1
Houston	70	80	.466	15	Lost 8
Cincinnati	69	81	.460	16	Won 1
San Diego	69	82	.456	16.5	Won 3
New York	65	86	.430	20.5	Lost 1
Arizona	65	86	.430	20.5	Lost 3
Pittsburgh	56	92	.378	28	Lost 3
Washington	51	98	.342	33.5	Lost 2

(updated 9.22.2009 at 10:09 AM EDT)

If the Marlins were to win out, 12-0, and the Rockies go 8-4 the Fish are eliminated from the wild card race. The folks at Purple Row think that if the Rockies go 6-6 it will probably be good enough to win the wild card. I think they are in all likelihood correct.

Either way you look at it, the Marlins have to get unbelievably hot for the last 12 games in order to have a chance at the playoffs. Can it happen? Yes. It is likely? Probably not. Especially considering the longest win streak in franchise history is nine games. But the Marlins break records all the time.

To get the best insight available I did the intelligent thing and consulted my Magic Eight Ball. Asking the question: Will the Marlins make the playoffs? Magic Eight Ball responded: Outlook Not So Good.

Stupid Magic Eight Ball.

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Comments

Same attendance for both games?

G1
13895
NJ
Blanton (or whomever is their SP) pitches less than 5 2/3

G2
(if different attendance)
14903
Hanley
Game HR > 5

by jrsyeagle on Sep 22, 2009 11:58 AM EDT reply actions

By the numbers...

The Mets and Nationals have been mathematically eliminated from the NL East race as have everyone below the Brewers on the NL Wild Card standings. The Fish are a combo of 6 Phillies wins/Fish losses from being eliminated in the NL East. In the NL Wild Card, its 8 Rockie wins/Marlin losses. So our playoff hopes will be alive until at least September 25th. That’s later than last year. If we can get lucky, that final Phillies/Fish series could make or break us. Go Fish!!!

by marlinsfan315 on Sep 22, 2009 2:33 PM EDT reply actions

By the way...

The Phillies are 0-4 against the Astros so far and 1-2 against the Brewers. They play the Brewers in Milwaukee this time and host the Astros. If anyone can spoil the Phillies, they can. The Phillies are 12-8 in September right now, but 10 of those 20 games were the Mets and Nationals so I have hope…

by marlinsfan315 on Sep 22, 2009 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions