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MILB Stats: Pitching FIP/xFIP/tERA/xtERA, Hitters park adjusted/v.s. League/BB/K

recap of stats: FIP, fielding indepentant pitching, takes away anything a fielder influences and just looks at the things a pitcher is soley responsible for (BB, K, and HR). xFIP tries to neutralize the HR aspect, as it’s normally not possible to sustain a very low HR/FB or a very high HR/FB (unless you suck).

though new stat this year with tERA which will help show guys with high LD% as frauds. While pitchers aren’t soley responsible to a ball after it’s put in play, they are responsible for what type of ball is put in play (GB, FB, LD, IFFB), so it assigns weights to those.

anywayz. only doing guys I actually find interesting.

of note

NOLA

Rick Vanden Hurk-
It’s the first time since he was a 19 year old in Jupiter in 2004 that he finished with less strike outs than innings pitched. It’s also easily the best BB/9 of his career, which led to him post a BB/9 of 3.66 in the show after having a career MLB BB/9 of 5.45, and you take that trade off all the time. Yeah he was probably lucky with HRs but oh well, he countered it by being unlucky in the majors :lol

What’s interesting though is, at least at the ML level, he’s no throwing more balls within the strike zone. Instead, he’s getting more wiffs at balls outside the strike zone. Which you can basically thank that new slider to. It’s a very very good thing he throws that pitch now.

Tim Wood-
I’m loving him. I hated him after ‘08 when he didn’t strike anybody out and I was like why are we protecting him but score one FO and no me. And he’s performing admirably at the ML level. Yeah, his strike outs aren’t too hot up here so far, but I love the control he’s shown up here, combined with his ability to get GBs ergo keep down XBH/HR. If the strike outs come, he’ll be good. If they don’t, he’s still serviceable.

Mobley took a big step back on K’s, and while FIP still likes him, tRA really doesn’t like him, and I’d almost always go with tRA. But looking like MILB journeyman really, which was really just affirmed after the whole Rule V thing last year. Penn was a lot better than I thought, Sink wasn’t as bad as his ERA showed by he’s still f’n bad. Buente had pretty solid numbers but with a BB/9 of 4.66 I aint that interested.

Jax:

West-At first glance of West’s HR/9 you’d say he was unlucky. But he wasn’t. His FB% rocketted this season and his GB% plummeted. That seemed to have corrected itself in his second stint in the majors but it’s definitely something to monitor

Thompson was pretty damn solid but right now I’d probably say you’d be expecting around a 4.5 ERA so about a #4. Great to have in ones system but far from something that makes or breaks.

The main thing about AA was the BP arms. Parcell and Voss are real real f***ing awesome. 60%+ GB rates for both, high K rates for both, great control for both. Voss is especially big since he’s a lefty. And Leroux finishing another great campaign. Our NOLA BP next year is gonna be stacked. Those 3, Wood, Tucker, maybe Ceda, Tank. sh*t. Now if only NOLA could build a rotation.

JupJup

Winters keeps on looking like a bit worse Volstad. Sanabia has been getting a lot of dap throughout the season but his numbers overall have been rather meh. Meanwhile, Jose Rosario finally found control and beat him across the board. What’s the story on Jose Rose, legit or smoke? Just 23.

And again a ncie showing from BP arms, though not quite AA style. Jhan Marinez is just 20 and jumped from the GCL team to Jupiter. Steven Cishek (23) had a real nice season, Korpi (23) was solid. Kinda old for A+ ball but they’re also college draft picks so what can ya do. Battisto is 25 but he was also called up to AA than AAA (takes all the numbers into account but most of his IP were in Jup) so the FO seems to like him. Gunderson’s 24 and is the guy we got in the Kensing trade, was called up to NOLA for an appearance.

And while Kris Harvey got a lot of fanfare for turning into a RP, he wasn’t the only 24yo former high position player draft pick to turn into an RP this season. Jon Fulton joined him, and in fact pitched better than him.

Greeny’s Boro

First name that comes to attention is always gonna be Hand. Gotta love his upside, and he still logged in a solid year after his horrible first month. FIP still absolutely adores Kaminska but tRA not so much. Part of the issues is how many batters he hit (16), which FIP doesn’t take into account. That’s pretty surprising with the BB/9 he has. HBP doesn’t go back to last year so can’t say if he has a history of it. Johnny Dorn’s 23 so major meh. Graham Johnson was major meh but only 19. Sandy Rosy related to Jose Rose? He’s 23 so meh but he’s had good peripherals for awhile now, though also not much to go on haha, 40 IP in 06 but just 9 in 07 and 08 what’s the story morning glory on that?

To me the biggest name is Tom Koehler. Pretty old at 23 for that level but stellar year. With what Ramp had to say at the start of the year (http://floridamarlin…om-koehler.html), combined with his numbers, he’s shot way up much charts.

And while Peter Andre had a huuuuge year (don’t let his ERA in jupiter make you disbeleive, he still had outstanding peripherals), overall the BP wasn’t as impressive as other stops. Despite his ERA Yecker still looks like a decent RP spec, Evans logged in a good year but at 22 he’s kinda fringe age. Tood was 24 so yeah meh, Rodolfo’s 23 so also kinda eh but damn that is a nice line.

So yeah, same story repeat repeat not much SP but damn we got some BP arms.

Season ending top specs?

For me I’d have SP probably top 10 of

1-Hand
2-Winters
3-Kaminska
4-Koehler
5-Jose Rose
6-Sanabia
7-Graham
8-Sandy Rosy
9-Dorn
10-Dallas

Maybe Elih #9 or #10 instead but shrug. Wanna see what he does in Jax before really forming an opinion on him. I probably have Hand B-, Winters C+ but maybe B-, Kammy to Sanabia or maybe Koehler C+, rest C’s.

Nobody in short season ball for me (or recent draft picks), I want to see full season ball performance before forming an opinion. Doesn’t mean you have to follow that though.

RP

1. Tucker
2. Voss <-lefty
3. Leroux
4. Parcell
5. Wood
6. Ceda <- would be #1 but with his history of taking horrible care of his body, I don’t have much faith he bounces back well from a torn labrum
7.Andre <- to far away to rank above the guy who are basically ready
8.Jennings
9. Marinez
10. Cishek

Gotta love the RP depth man.
——————–
Somebody I forgot and I don’t know how I forgot is Dan Jennings

22yo guy who spent most of the year in Greensboro but also had limited time in Jupiter and Jax.

ERA: 2.15
tERA: 2.78
xtERA: 3.38
FIP: 2.30
xFIP: 2.92

Just another guy to love for our BP. And big points for being lefty

——————–

So here’s a nifty pic of how all our hitters did once you park factor their numbers. And it also shows how good their OPS is relative to their league. After all, a 900 OPS in a league that averages a 900 OPS isn’t good, but it’s amazing in a league that averages a .900 OPS.

Quick run down of the parks/leagues

NOLA: Pitchers park that’s real hard on HRs. Not Jupiter level but closer to Jupiter than it is average. However the League OPS is .758. NL OPS is .740 for reference.

JAX: Basically Neutral across the board but everything dips a dip towards pitching. League OPS of .711

Jup: Pitchers Park that’s absolutely terrible on HRs. League OPS of .684

Greensboro: Hitters Haven, is a HR launching pad. League OPS of .692

Jamestown: A lot is always made over Greensboro and HRs. Did you know that Jamestown is even more of a HR and hitters park? League OPS of .670.

GCL Rookie team: Plays it same park as Jupiter team does. League OPS of .652.

It’s funny that players go from Roger Dean Stadium (Jupiter’s park), which is so hard on HRs, to then absolutely launching pads in Jamestown and Greensboro, just to go back to RDS lol.

Anyway pic:

So it’s probably fair to say that the guy with the best OPS compared to his league had the most successful season yes?

Not surprisingly, this award falls onto the hands of Mike Stanton’s park adjusted 1.022 OPS. It’d be the equivalent of a 1.11 OPS in the NL, making him the Albert Pujols of the FSL. He’d finish with the highest non-adjusted OPS in the league, with only two other players finishing above .900 (One being the Phillies Dominic Brown at .903, the other being 25 year old career OPS of .744 Robinson Chirinos at .915).

Marcell Ozuna would come in 2nd, with Logan Morrison in third, Kyle Jensen in 4th, and Brandon Todd/Ryan Curry basically tieing for 5th (though as 24yos in A+ ball, not so impressive), using a 200 PA minimum.

Some names that pop up that you probably haven’t heard of:

Wilfredo Gimenez - The real C of the future? He doesn’t have the fanfare, but he had the best production out of all the C’s in the minors this year. He put up a park adjusted line of .288/.361/.385/.745 with an amazing BB/K of 14/9 in 104 AB for the GCL team. He put up similiar numbers for the Dominican League affiliate last season. He also seems to have a strong arm, throwing out 40% of runners this season. His lack of power hurts but being just 18 years old, you hope he can grow into some, and you just have to love that BB/K.

Carlos Paulino - The GCL team wasn’t the only SS team to have a nice showing from their back stop. The 19 year out old of the DR put up a nice park adjusted line of .291/.340/.411/.751 for Jamestown. He wasn’t anywhere nearly as impressive as Gimenez, having the same power questions and only putting up a 11/27 BB/K in 141 AB, but you always like to see C’s perform well.

Brent Keys - Taken in this last draft in the 17th round, the 18 year old did a lot of things right. His park adjusted line would be .301/.399/.331/.730. Yes, the .030 ISO is very very bad, but he’d also put up a 28/20 BB/K in 163 AB, and he’s also very young. He also went 13 for 17 in stealing bases. There’s no fielding stats for GCL league, so not sure how he did there, but if he’s a plus defensive CF, there’s quite a few things to like.

Michael Synan - A 42nd round draft pick in 08, he’s put up back to back years of solid lines while not being old for the leagues. However, going by Total Zone, he an absolutely horrible fielder, scoring a -17 in LF for Greensboro this season. A move to first base could help things.

Ryan Keedy-Drafted by the Cubs in the 16th round of the ‘08 draft, he was released? earlier this season after hitting only .236 with no extra base hits in 89 ABs for the cubs A+ affiliate. He absolutely torched it with us though. Being a 1b, he’ll have to continue that success to go anywhere. However, he’s also 23 years old.

Terrence Dayleg-The 21 year old was the marlins 22nd round selection in this past years draft. He split time at SS and 3B for the GCL team. If he can stay at SS, he becomes interesting, but a lot less so if he’s forced to play 3B. He finished with a park adjusted line of .277/.377/.400/.777, .125 points higher than league average. One of the main things though is he also finished with a 16/18 BB/K. Being old for the league and a late round draft pick, he’s very meh at the moment, and it’s questionable if that BB/K holds up after having a 0.46 BB/K in college. But he could be someone to look out for if that BB/K is for real

As for BB/K, those that ended up being interesting you should already know or are already listed above so just a quick run down of who won and who lost.

1) Wilfredo Giminez, 1.56
2) Brent Keys, 1.40
3) Logan Morrison, 1.37
4) Chris Coghlan, 1.20
5) Brandon Turner, 1.05

And the losers

1) Jose Ceballos, 0.13
2) Isaac Galloway, 0.13 (”lost” by .009 points, and the only non-DR on the list)
3) Ernesto Manzanillo, 0.15
4) Jose Torres, 0.17
5) Joel De Los Santos, 0.18

Actually there is one name I want to bring up. Marquise Cooper finished with a solid 0.67 BB/K, striking out 19.3% of the time while walking 10.6% of the time. With his speed he should be able to hit for BABIP, and he should be able to hit for some power based off his body, so that’s looking good there even though overall his year sucked.

Speaking of DR though, I didn’t do them because there are no known park factors, but in terms of relative to league and BB/K, there is one name that does stnad out. Pedro Mendoza finished the year with a line of .314/.393/.366/.759 with a BB/K of 17/13 in 175 AB. The league average OPS was only .669, so his OPS was the equivalent of about a .840 OPS in the NL. 18 year old 3b.

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