FanPost

Magic Numbers... can we get a magician to help ours?


For those that wonder about the chances of the Fish making the playoffs, here it is from a mathematical standpoint:

 

NL EAST W L PCT GB MN
PHILLIES 82 60 0.577    
MARLINS 76 67 0.531 6.5 14
BRAVES 75 68 0.524 7.5 13

 

NL WILDCARD W L PCT GB MN
ROCKIES 82 62 0.569    
GIANTS 77 66 0.538 4.5 15
MARLINS 76 67 0.531 5.5 14
BRAVES 75 68 0.524 6.5 13
CUBS 73 68 0.518 7.5 13
ASTROS 70 73 0.490 11.5 8
BREWERS 69 73 0.486 12 8
PADRES 65 79 0.451 17 2
REDS 64 79 0.448 17.5 2

These standings are as of 9/14 at 10am EDT, from Yahoo Sports. For those that don't know, "MN" stands for Magic Number. When this number is zero or less, that particular team is eliminated from that race. In the NL Wildcard, the Reds and Padres are almost done. It's getting down to the wire, but the Fish aren't done yet.

 

HOW TO FIGURE OUT THE MAGIC NUMBER (for the experts and math-haters, feel free to skip this part)

 

The magic number for a team is figured out as follows. Take the number of losses that a team has and subtract it from 162. This represents the maximum number of wins the team could get should it win all of its remaining games. Since the leading team must beat that by one to eliminate them, you add one. Now you have the number of wins the leading team needs, so subtract the number of wins it already has and you have the number of wins it needs to eliminate your team. This is the magic number. The leading team winning or the trailing team losing will decrease this number by one so if both happen in the same day, the trailing team's magic number decreases by two. In the NL East, the fish have 67 losses and the Phils have 82 wins. Using the steps, 162-67=95 max wins for the Fish, therefore the Phils need 96 to eliminate us so 96-82=14 which is our Magic Number in the NL East.

 

REMAINING OUTLOOK

 

For the rest of the season, we go to St. Louis for 3 games, Cincinnati for 4 games. Then we return home and host 3 games (2 of which are a DH) with the Phils, host the Mets for 3 nights, then on the road to Atlanta for 3 and Philly for 3 to finish the season.  We can't afford to mess around anymore, but personally I'm not giving up until our magic number is zero or less in both the NL East and NL Wild Card races. Biggest bang for our buck is taking it to the Phils both times. Don't give up, Fish Faithful, for only the Nationals, Mets, Diamondbacks, and Pirates have been eliminated from both their division and the wild card.

 

Go Fish!!!

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