FanPost

BP on N.J. Acquisition


I was perusing my ESPN inside account this morning and found this tidbit on the marlins acquisition of Nick Johnson and the effect that it had on our ability win, essentially, because it removed Bonifacio from the every day lineup (curse you carlos zambrano).  It also factored in dropping Miller to the minor leagues and Lindy getting activated, apparently.  Sorry if this is too big of a block quote craig:

 

The team that had the biggest change in its expected winning percentage however -- a 42-point gain, well over twice what the Cardinals added -- is the Florida Marlins. Their only trade was to bring in Nick Johnson from the Nationals, but he essentially replaces Emilio Bonifacio in the lineup, meaning you're replacing a .220-ish EqA with a .300-ish EqA. The picture is complicated by internal changes in the pitching staff that happened at the same time -- ditching Andrew Miller for now, getting Matt Lindstrom back from the DL -- that also helped to inflate their expected win total. Still, having the best win-percentage increase only gets them a four-point gain in their playoff odds, from just three percent to seven percent, which was also the fourth-largest improvement by any club. The system still likes the Phillies and Braves a lot more than it does the Marlins, and it doesn't see many opportunities for outdoing those two teams.

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