Marlins acquire Nick Johnson for Double A lefty Aaron Thompson
by David Dwork on Jul 31, 2009 4:11 PM EDT
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PrintNice!!! Marlins can now get Bonifacio out of the starting lineup and add another lefty bat with some POP. Not only that, but the Nats are going to pay the $1.8 million left on his contract. This is a great deal for the Marlins...gotta give Beinfest, Samson and Hill some props. Combined with bringing in Donnelly and Ayala, some smart moves over the past 45 days. This should keep the Marlins right in the thick of the NL Wild Card chase.
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I love it
My only issue is moving Cantu back to third. That is (to put it lightly) devastating. He killed us over there last year.
no, Bonifacio is devastating.
Cantu’s bat and glove >>> Bonifacio’s bat and glove.
Marlins Stadium: When It's Raining, The Roof Will Happen!
He wasn't good
But we still look like an upgraded team by losing Bonerface, and gaining an actual left-handed batter (seeing as Coghlan is still developing and Hermida blows).
The Player's Commenter
Big Fan of Tyler Thigpen, the boy from Coastal Carolina
'Phins are gonna go 10-6 this year, but better would be nice!
Member of the "I Hate Emilio Bonerface Club"
Cantu Questions
A little late here but, I don’t remember hearing any thoughts on this…
How much of Cantus problems at 3rd last year can be attributed to Jacobs terrible glove?
Is there a way to quantify this?
I'm not going to pan the deal
I think I’ve made my point about the likelihood of the Fish doing anything this year, but when it comes down to it, the team is better, we won’t have to watch Bonerface anymore (hopefully) and as I said in one of the fanposts, Thompson has spent the last two or three years dropping further and further in scouts’ eyes. To the extent that Kevin Goldstein now describes him as “average stuff at best, doesn’t miss bats, maybe loogy in the end, MAYBE” With the Nats covering the salary, that’s just about the definition of “a small price to pay.”
So let’s make the most of it, kids.
Marlins Stadium: When It's Raining, The Roof Will Happen!
then i feel better.
i was upset that we traded the guy considered our 2nd-best starting prospect. But maybe i have an overinflated opinion of him.
Hell Yeah!
I was hoping for this all day, Bonafacio aint great at 3rd and he is killing us at offense. So at this cantu can get us some offensive power at 3rd now.
Chief of Paprazzi for the official Matty I Fanclub.
Gieco Needs A New Slogan...So Easy A Jets Fan Can Do It LOL
by EverybodyLovesDolphins on Jul 31, 2009 4:28 PM EDT reply actions
Well, the only other option
Is sending down our backup 1B Ross Gload, and using Cantu or Johnson as a backup/pinch-hitter, which would amount to the worst decision offensively our club has made in recent years.
The Player's Commenter
Big Fan of Tyler Thigpen, the boy from Coastal Carolina
'Phins are gonna go 10-6 this year, but better would be nice!
Member of the "I Hate Emilio Bonerface Club"
They could lose Wes Helms.
To be honest,, I’d rather see Boni in the majors than Helms.
He's currently two-thirds man, one-third amazing. Which, let's face it, is still a pretty good ratio.
"Pinch hitting" isn't a skill.
Not as distinct from regular hitting, at any rate. Everything else is superstition.
He's currently two-thirds man, one-third amazing. Which, let's face it, is still a pretty good ratio.
but Helms is a better hitter than Bonifacio period, so...
Marlins Stadium: When It's Raining, The Roof Will Happen!
Don't ever compare Welms and Boner...
Wow…. I am upset Wes is not here to kick you ass lol
Wes Helms is the definition of a solid hitter. He puts in his time.
Yeah, he is getting older, but he still is just as clutch as ever.
Not to mention, he is the babysitter that we kind of need.
Without him around, anarchy may break lose.
Album coming soon
by Han The Man And The Band on Jul 31, 2009 8:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Not appreciably this year.
Or last year. Or the year before. He hasn’t posted an OPS over .665 since 2006, and it’s not for lack of plate appearances. And his peripherals — defensive versatility, speed, potential for growth — are all well below Bonifacio’s, which to me more than makes up for the .030 or so OPS difference.
He's currently two-thirds man, one-third amazing. Which, let's face it, is still a pretty good ratio.
So we can add to a crowded bullpen
And lose another starter in our farm system? We’re not that deep to start with, and that’s why West and Miller were untouchable unless another starter was in the mix.
The Player's Commenter
Big Fan of Tyler Thigpen, the boy from Coastal Carolina
'Phins are gonna go 10-6 this year, but better would be nice!
Member of the "I Hate Emilio Bonerface Club"
Donnelly and Ayala are our bullpen additions.
Like every other closer ever, Bell will command more than he’s worth. In this case, Miller is a guy who may well be an above-average starter for years to come. (And I’m not even particularly high on the dude.) Relief pitchers, even good ones, are a dime a dozen.
He's currently two-thirds man, one-third amazing. Which, let's face it, is still a pretty good ratio.
When Lindstrom was blowing games left and right
I would have gone for that. I’m personally ready to sell on Miller, he’s just not very good in my opinion.
He had that really good stretch in June.
I think his ERA was down to the 3.4 range, and he had like 3 QS’s in a row (I could be off a bit on these numbers). Why he completely collapsed this month, I’ll never know. But the dude can pitch at the major-league level.
I had a short period where I felt confident with him last month
But then he proved why I always had felt uneasy with him on the mound. He gives me the feeling that we’re just not going to win, and that’s not a feeling I get often. Even when Ricky was doing badly earlier, I never just had the feeling we were going to lose from the outset.
Maybe Miller can eventually prove me wrong, but in two seasons he hasn’t done it for me yet.
I still would have liked Heath...
He is the consistent closer we need. We might have added other relievers, but none of them have closer “stuff.” Bell has been the epitome of consistency. I would have loved that addition along with the Johnson move. Andrew Miller is almost a lost cause. I just don’t think he has what it takes. He just doesn’t seem to be able to put it all together. He has the height and power, but just isn’t consistent at all. I may be old school but I like consistency.
Album coming soon
by Han The Man And The Band on Jul 31, 2009 8:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, but don't forget that he's still young
And has yet to have a significant arm injury. Plus, we can always find a solution for a permanent closer in the off-season. Nunez is doing fine in that role so far, and may very well supplant Lindstrom when he returns from his rehab.
The Player's Commenter
Big Fan of Tyler Thigpen, the boy from Coastal Carolina
'Phins are gonna go 10-6 this year, but better would be nice!
Member of the "I Hate Emilio Bonerface Club"
i dunno about that.
Nunez seems a little overmatched as a closer so far. He seems to always allow baserunners. In fact, his [stat, as provided by Dan] shows that in save situations so far, Nunez has [done something bad a certain number of times, as provided by Dan].
From here on out
emilio: -9 offense, -2.5 defense, +1.5 BR
Cantu: +0 defense
=-10 runs
Nick Johnson: 11.5 offense, +1.5 defense, -1 BR
cantu: -3.5 defense
=8.5 rims
net gain=18.5 runs
net wins=1.85
You're optimistic about Johnson's defense
I was on BTF’s trade discussion and the guys there were widely panning Johnson’s once Gold Glove-caliber defense. His knees are shot and it’s as good a chance that he’s bad the rest of the way as he was during this season so far. Also, I’m not entirely sure Boni was worth 1.5 BR runs, but that’s nitpicking.
Still, from what I can tell, Johnson over Bonifacio, based on their remaining season ZiPS projections, is worth some 17 runs. I’d give Johnson another 200 PA and keep his wOBA around where it is (he appears to be losing his old power), which makes him worth 14 runs. Give him -1 defense (generous) and Cantu -3.5 and you have about a win’s worth only. That won’t get us into the playoffs, though it does greatly improve our chances.
It’s worth what we gave them. Thompson is no longer an important prospect in anyone’s mind in the organization, which is a shame.
Don’t like thompson personally so I like. Just wish it was done a month earlier. Hate waiting until the 31st to make a trade. I mean, brewers got into the playoffs cuz they traded for CC on the 7th instead of the 31st.
Boni’s BR was taking what he’s given the team so far and just applying it to 60 games. If anything I could see that going up because he’s just made dumb mistakes. You can more or less fix stupid mistakes, you can’t change how fast you are though really.
Defense I can agree but also disagree with. The point for his defense going down because of his knees is solid. But I also hate using small sample size fielding stats really, and much prefer going to a career number.
by nny on Aug 1, 2009 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions
It really made me sad to have to say anything about Nick Johnson. He was amazing to watch in the minors – I got to see him several times when he was at AA and he was one of the youngest players on the field and pitchers just did not know how to approach him at the plate. At that time, his bat was quicker, he was almost never fooled by a pitch, and he was impossible to intimidate at the plate.
Then he had the wrist problems and a parade of other injuries and he’s never quite been the same. He’s had a career that he can proud of and he’s been able to at least show a glimpse of what he can do (as opposed to someone like Clint Hurdle, whose career was completely ruined by back problems), but if fate had been kinder, Johnson would have been one of the best hitters of this generation.
At this point, his defense is a shadow of what it once was. He’s put on a lot of weight and his knees are shot and it’s just killed his mobility. Johnson’s still an upgrade considering that Bonifacio is horrific, just not a massive game-changer for the rest of the season.
--
Dan Szymborski
dan@baseballprimer.com
possibly, but we got him for peanuts and we're only paying him the league minimum.
it’s kind of a no-lose, though moving cantu to third is a concern.
Clay Davenport co-signs
The team that had the biggest change in its expected winning percentage however—a 42-point gain, well over twice what the Cardinals added—is the Florida Marlins. Their only trade was to bring in Nick Johnson from the Nationals, but he essentially replaces Emilio Bonifacio in the lineup, meaning you’re replacing a .220-ish EqA with a .300ish EqA. The picture is complicated by internal changes in the pitching staff that happened at the same time—ditching Andrew Miller for now, getting Matt Lindstrom back from the DL—that also helped to inflate their expected win total. Still, having the best win-percentage increase only gets them a four-point gain in their playoff odds, from just three percent to seven percent, which was also the fourth-largest improvement by any club. The system still likes the Phillies and Braves a lot more than it does the Marlins, and it doesn’t see many opportunities for outdoing those two teams.
— BPro’s Clay Davenport, on which deadline trades most affected teams’ odds of making the playoffs.
Marlins Stadium: When It's Raining, The Roof Will Happen!
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