Negating the Hanley Ramirez effect

by craig on Jul 23, 2009 11:30 AM EDT in News Comment 10 comments

This deserves a longer look than I'm going to give it, but that is the way it goes.

"There's enough offense," Beinfest said. "It's just a matter of doing it consistently. We've shown if Chris and Emilio [Bonifacio] can get on base, Hanley [Ramirez] is going to knock them in. Those guys need to be on base. That's important."

Coghlan and Bonifacio went a combined 6 for 27 (.222) with four runs and three RBI in the series. The National League average on-base percentage for first and second hitters through Tuesday was .328 and .345, respectively. The Marlins' OBP from those two spots: .310 and .316.

While it is very true that if at least one of the first two hitters can get himself into scoring position, Hanley will drive him in at a very nice pace. Ramirez is hitting .429 with runners in scoring position. Normally, I don't care about batting average, but when it comes to runners in scoring position, it does serve some purpose.

But let's forget about the fact the first two in the batting order can't get on base and instead look at how the Marlins hitters are performing overall, very recently, with men in scoring position. Against the Phillies, in the last home series, the Marlins were 3-26 for a batting average of .115 and the Fish lost all three of those games.

In the sweep of the Padres, the Marlins were 4-22 with runners in scoring position for a batting average of .182.

I guess what I'm am getting at is the Marlins sweep of the Padres was because of the performance of the pitchers while the bats continue to remain silent at the key times when we need them to make some noise.

On the bright side, .182 is greater than .115 so we are going in the right direction.

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Yeah, it is nice to see...

Our pitching coming along nicely. If we could only make a couple moves to sure up our lineup, we would be a dangerous team. I wish we could have got DeRosa.

Album coming soon

by Han The Man And The Band on Jul 23, 2009 12:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, but

You know the FO never would have let him start, especially at the one position we need (cough, 3rd base, cough)…

The Player's Commenter
Big Fan of Tyler Thigpen, the boy from Coastal Carolina
'Phins are gonna go 10-6 this year, but better would be nice!
Member of the "I Hate Emilio Bonerface Club"

by ocelotfox on Jul 23, 2009 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i regret that, too.

a solid-hitting veteran 3B who’s a step up offensively from Helms? naaaah, we don’t need that. Boni’s a winner.

on the other hand, from what I recall, at least one of the prospects Cleveland got from St. Louis was pretty well-regarded, and I think DeRosa’s a free agent at the end of the year. So it might’ve cost us a good player to land a half-year rental.

by Fishcrazy on Jul 23, 2009 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I know it's not popular but...

I think Juan Pierre would help the team greatly. It doesn’t even have to be him, just someone with that kind of consistency when it comes to getting on base and getting base hits. When you look at the line up and there are only three guys hitting .270 or better, there are serious issues that need to be addressed. You can’t win major league baseball games if you can’t hit the ball. Coghlan might not be ready yet, Bonifacio isn’t good enough, Hermida probably needs a change of scenery, Uggla is probably trying too hard, and Baker is still adjusting to the big leagues. Add in that Ross is having a better year than he probably should be having, and the offense looks very bleak.

The scouting department has done a great job at finding great pitching for the organization. I think it’s time now for them to set their sights on a .300 hitter or so.

by cpmustangs13 on Jul 23, 2009 12:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Oh man, not the JP stuff again. He doesn’t walk enough.

2009 JP BB%: 6.5%
2009 Boni BB%: 6.5%

It’s like getting Bonifacio but years older. They have the same skillset. Their difference right now is contact rate (92% for JP vs. 81% for Boni) and BABIP (.341 for JP, .315 for Boni). Plus, he only plays LF at this point in his career, so his meager offensive value is added onto by sticking him at an offensive premium position.

I’m not going to get into this again. The team definitely needs to get on base better. Let’s try and keep the high OBP guys in and the low OBP guys out, unless they hold obvious value in other places (ex. Ross).

Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog

by SFiercex4 on Jul 23, 2009 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Except...

They’re not even in the same ballpark as one another. Pierre this year is hitting .315 with a .372 OBP whereas Bonifacio is hitting .248 and has a .297 OBP. Now I’m not saying that Pierre is the answer to all the Marlins’ problems, he’s not. He would be better than any outfielder we currently have not named Ross, and he would instantly be the 3rd or 4th best asset in the lineup. You don’t have to walk often if you’re hitting .315, you’re on base plenty in that situation. .372 is not a low OBP, it would be the best of any Marlin not named Ramirez. I would take the additional 75 OBP points over Bonifacio every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

by cpmustangs13 on Jul 23, 2009 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

JP in May: .369/.435/.505, .401 wOBA (125 PA)
JP in June: .264/.319/.309, .301 wOBA (122 PA)
JP in July: .250/.273/.313, .228 wOBA (34 PA)
JP in 2008: .287/.327/.328, .304 wOBA (406 PA)
JP in 2007: .293/.331/.353, .317 wOBA (729 PA)

I don’t mean to be a downer on JP, since he was an important part of the 2003 championship team, but in all fairness, which of these examples looks like the outlier in the data set? Even tossing out July due to a terribly small sample size, you’d still be looking at the hot month as the outlier.

If the Marlins acquired JP and his $9M contract for this year and next year, it would be a personnel move on par with starting Bonifacio for as long as we have.

Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog

by SFiercex4 on Jul 23, 2009 2:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs