The Bonifacio situation

by craig on Jun 30, 2009 9:12 AM EDT in News Comment 12 comments

Juan C. Rodriguez ask the question, that has been on so many lips of late: Can the Florida Marlins win with Emilio Bonifacio?

Since I don't have a TypeKey or TypePad account, I will respond to the question here: No, they can't. At least not in the present state.

Oh sure, the Marlins can flounder around .500 for the rest of the season using Bonifacio the way they are now, but that is about it. While it is possible something magical will happen to Bonifacio and he will turn into a decent hitter and be an okay fielder but I wouldn't count on it.

I'm going to take Mr. Rodriguez's post a little out of order, I'm hoping he is okay with that.

...I thought manager Fredi Gonzalez had a telling quote about him afterthe game: " Boni, even through all the stuff he's been going through, at the beginning of the year and hitting .900 and people expecting him to hit .970, he comes every day to work and he's getting better. He's got a nice little hitting streak going. He's hitting a little over .300 from the right side...He's doing fine. He's one of those guys you characterize as a winner because he'll find something to do during the course of a game to help you win a ballgame."

It is a telling quote, no doubt, Bonifacio isn't going anywhere soon.

But it also shows one of the problems, in that, he has a nice little hitting streak from mainly the right-side of the plate but eventually the Marlins are going to face right-handed pitchers again and he is going to have to turn around and bat left. If you look at his splits, they are:

Batting Left: .227/.288/.274

Batting Right: .306/.326/.376

Batting Overall: .250/.298/.303

When he is batting from the right-side of the plate, he isn't fabulous, but he isn't awful. However, from the left-side of the plate he is simply pathetic. Sadly for Bonifacio and for the Marlins he will face more right-handed pitchers than lefties over the course of the season.

I guess that wouldn't be so horrible if he didn't lead the team in plate appearances. The Marlins are sending their worst hitter to the plate more than anyone else on the team. This is not how you score runs. Normally, I'm a believer in the batting order is overrated, but this assumes that overall, the hitters are at least of major league quality. But sending your hitter who is last on the team in OBP and SLG to the plate the most is only hurting the club.

Not to mention he is a defensive liability at third. I won't go into all the defensive stats since I don't have time at the moment. But trust me, they aren't good.

...but this notion that the only reason Bonifacio is still here is so the Marlins can justify the trade that sent Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham to the Nationals is absurd. If that was the case, why isn't Cameron Maybin here to justify the Miguel Cabrera trade? Come on.

I like JCR, but I must disagree with some of this. I have no idea at this point whether the team sticking with Bonifacio is trade justification, but to proffer the theory is not absurd. The Marlins have a history of doing such and sticking with a player long beyond it becomes obvious they are aren't getting the job done. Recent examples: Jorge Julio and Armando Benitez. Also the analogy to Cameron Maybin is not a good one since Andrew Miller and Burke Badenhop are up with the team and they were also a part of the Cabrera trade.

Mr. Rodriguez concludes with the following:

I know Bonifacio's fan base has dwindled to next to nothing since his flashy first week, but if I were a Marlin fan I'd get used to him being in lineup in some capacity. It doesn't look like he's going anywhere.

Wait a minute, you're not a Marlins fan? On second thought, his job to report about the Marlins, our job is to be fans. I completely agree that Bonifacio isn't going anywhere soon, but could the team at least move him down to near the bottom of the order so that some of the more prolific hitters show up to the plate more often than he does? It would be appreciated.

1 recs | Comment 12 comments | Share

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

What is the more likely scenario?

Will the Marlins call up Maybin this year and move Coghlan in to play third while moving Bonifacio to the bench? Or would they call up Gaby Sanchez later in the year and slide Cantu over to third? Or are we already packing it in for the year in spite of our proximity to the Phils?

by cpmustangs13 on Jun 30, 2009 10:17 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

as dan posted before, Gaby Sanchez could be called up to play third.

Coghlan also can play third, but I wonder if the team would want to move him to his third different position this year. I suspect he’ll stay in right this year, but move back to second if Uggla is traded.

As for Maybin, it’s looking like he’ll stay in the high minors this year and maybe be a September call-up. I have no special insight on this at all, I’m just saying. He was pretty weak here in April/early May, and I’m sure the club is concerned with rushing him back up again.

The unfortunate thing with Bonifacio is that he’s not good enough to be a solid contributing player, but not bad enough to slump his way onto the bench. He’s been at or around .250 since he leveled out from that huge month-long slump in May. For whatever reasons, the club is happy with a .250 hitter who occasionally steals a base. Of course, most teams would keep a Luis Alicea on the bench rather than entrench him in the starting lineup and praise him to the high heavens. But hey, we’re the Marlins.

Sure, he’ll pull of a great play like that 3-base advance against Baltimore. Then he’ll revert back to general ineffectiveness for the next month, but fond memories of that one good game keep him here. As they say in gambling, Fredi’s chasing it.

by Fishcrazy on Jun 30, 2009 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

As simple as this:

If you ever get characterized as a “winner” and you’re not great, you’re terrible. When people have to go to such a ridiculous characterization as your best quality, you have no good qualities.

I mean, let’s be honest here. The big thing that Fredi (and to a lesser extent JCR as well) points to is his line from the right side. That line, again, is .306/.326/.376. You don’t need me to tell you that that’s not actually good, but let’s go ahead with it anyway. Last year in the NL, right-handed hitters facing left-handed pitchers hit .271/.346/.432. Which is to say: the great performance that is keeping him in the lineup (which, as craig points out, occurs less often than his worse split) IS STILL WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

Now, to make a (not) quick aside, I should take this time to point out what I think sports fans in general and baseball fans in particular may “know” but seem to never truly believe. The talent in MLB is not normally distributed; it is exponential. There is no limit to how good a guy can be, but guys who are particularly bad get dropped. This is both the concept of “replacement level” and the reason why, at any given point in time, the majority of MLB players are below average.

I say this because if Bonerface were simply below average, it would be ok. But he’s not. He is, by any and all measures, below replacement level.

wOBA is Weighted On-Base Average, effectively a linear weight version of OPS (which is to say, rather than treating OBP and SLG equally, it treats walks, singles, doubles, etc. with their actual historical values in terms of run production) that is scaled to mirror OBP. So .340 is about average, .400 is awesome, and .300 is about as bad as you can be and still get significant at-bats. Bonerface’s wOBA is currently a horrid .276. That’s seventh-worst in all of baseball. Among players with at least 300 PAs, it’s third-worst. And this is with a higher average on balls in play than anyone below .300! We’re not talking “bad” here; we’re talking potentially the worst regular in all of baseball.

We’ve talked a lot about WAR lately, Wins Above Replacement. Similar to how wOBA takes the individual components into account and weights them based on value, WAR does the same thing, only with way more components. We’re talking all those batting elements, plus baserunning, plus defensive components like range, error rate, arm, etc. plus positional adjustments. Again, among guys with 300 PAs, he is the third-worst player in baseball. He’s five runs below replacement level.

We’re not talking about a guy who deserves a discussion on whether he should be starting; we’re talking about a guy whose discussion should be whether he should be in baseball at all.

Oh, but I forgot… he’s a winner. Well, that just makes up for everything.

Marlins Stadium: When It's Raining, The Roof Will Happen!

by dan 2.0 on Jun 30, 2009 10:53 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

you're just saying that because you're NOT a winner!

Winners know what it means to be a winner. Winners know about winning, because winning is for winners! You, sir, are not a winner at all. You attempt to use statistics, acronyms, jargon, facts and reality to prove your points, but that does NOT add up to winning! Winning is not quantifiable. Winning just IS. If you don’t win, then you can’t talk about winning because you’re not a winner.

by Fishcrazy on Jun 30, 2009 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

but I'm a great whiner

that’s kind of the same thing, right?

Marlins Stadium: When It's Raining, The Roof Will Happen!

by dan 2.0 on Jun 30, 2009 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think he's necessarily a bad player

But he clearly needs much more time in the minors to develop. The Fish over-rated his ability at the point in time, and now that we’re almost to the All-Star break, it’s time to consider trying Gaby Sanchez or someone else.

The Player's Commenter

by ocelotfox on Jun 30, 2009 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hey, lay off him! He hit a triple and, like, 7 singles in the last 8 games man! And he stole some bases too! And he made throws across the diamond! And he’s a winner!

This little streak and his slightly more passable June have brought his total up to five runs below replacement. He was at a full win below at the start of the month, and so was worth approximately $4.5 million dollars LESS than a replacement level scrub. Is that seriously better than playing Gaby Sanchez at third?

Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog

by SFiercex4 on Jun 30, 2009 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Solution

Get one of the yankees fans back down here and have their waste management company take him out?

by jrsyeagle on Jun 30, 2009 12:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm still hoping Amezaga is traded when he returns...

…which will push Bonifacio to utility super sub and call up Gaby or trade for a legit 3B.

But I wouldn’t be against your solution.

by dgriot on Jun 30, 2009 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

er...

is that because you think Amezega has better trade value, or do you think Boni would be a better utility guy? Boni’s not even that good defensively where he could be a reliable super-sub.

by Fishcrazy on Jun 30, 2009 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I definitely don't think he's a better utility guy,

but he’s better suited there than as starting 3B. A significant upgrade at 3B is worth a bench downgrade. He’d still be on the active roster to “justify” this trade until Smolinski hopefully makes the club in I guess 2011, while a healthy Amezaga might actually net something in a trade (by himself or in conjunction with other pieces). In addition, the 2 or so million Amezaga would get next year can be put towards Johnson or someone else.

by dgriot on Jun 30, 2009 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs