Juan Pierre to the Fish?
by Han The Man And The Band on Jun 16, 2009 3:54 PM EDT
Email
PrintWhen Manny Ramirez comes back from his suspension, Juan Pierre is going to be seeing a lot of time on the bench. Cody Ross is just not the answer for our CF problems. We need someone who can be a stolen base threat, hit for a good average, has a good eye, and has great range. Who thinks we should trade for JP or someone of similar talents?Anybody have anyone in mind? What/Who would you be willing to give up?
40 comments
|
1 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
A few thoughts.
Cody Ross is just not the answer for our CF problems
That is probably correct, but he’s not supposed to be the answer. Cameron Maybin is. I don’t see a point in trading for Pierre so he can be Maybin’s placeholder when Cody’s already doing that.
We need someone who can be a stolen base threat, hit for a good average, has a good eye, and has great range.
Yes, he is a stolen base threat, and he does hit for a better average than Cody. I, too, would rather have more consistency at the position than Cody’s regular pattern of super-hot streaks and .180 slumps.
But Pierre isn’t really the on-base machine that people think he is. These are his OBPs over the last four years (2005-08):
Pierre: .327, .331, .330, .326
Cody was at .316 last year, the one full season he’s played for us, and as one would expect, Cody’s career OBPS is 100 points higher than Pierre’s.
Moreover, Pierre’s range isn’t that great anymore. He was moved to left field last year. His arm was always anemic, but now he’s lost a step, too. I don’t know if he could handle being a full-time CF anymore, and I really don’t think he’s much of an upgrade over Cody. Just because Cody made a game-losing error last week doesn’t mean he can’t get to balls.
And let’s not forget the folly of trading for a player at his peak value. Pierre’s still good, but he’s not this good. He hasn’t hit .300 since 2004, and he seems to be coming back down to earth: he’s lost 30 points off his average so far in June.
If Maybin does not turn out to be the long-term solution, then the team surely will address the position in the future. But for right now, with Cody holding his own and Maybin waiting in the wings, it would be rash to go after another centerfielder.
(On the other hand, can Pierre play third?)
or in other words:
Cody > Pierre. On that fact alone, it would be silly to swap them. Factor in the ridiculous amount of money JP is being paid, it’s a non-starter (kind of like JP [oh snap]).
PS: JP WAR 07-09: 3.2
Cody WAR 07-09: 6.1
In fact, when discussing how bad Cody is and who he should be replaced with, keep the following in mind:
OF WAR over the last 2 years
26) Carlos Quentin – 4.5
27) Carlos Lee – 4.4
28t) Cody Ross – 4.2
28t) Jacoby Ellsbury – 4.2
30) Adam Jones – 3.9
31) Kosuke Fukudome – 3.7
32) Andre Ethier – 3.6
33) Luke Scott – 3.4
34) Magglio Ordonez – 3.3
That’s Cody’s company. Good luck trading for an upgrade.
Marlins Stadium: When It's Raining, The Roof Will Happen!
thanks.
I knew there must be some stat that quantifies Cody’s superiority. My aim isn’t to bash Pierre, just to say he isn’t an upgrade over Cody even if he does bring a different skill set.
Still, I’m shocked Cody’s WAR is that high. He’s even better than I thought! Now if we could just slide him back to right field, get Maybin going in the bigs, move Coghlan to third and put Boni on the bench, I’d be even happier.
WAR?
What exactly is WAR? I have never heard of that term ever.
I looked on a ton on baseball sites (MLB.com & the baseball almanac) and nobody seems to say what WAR is. If it’s not on MLB.com’s OFFICIAL abbreviation list it must not be as important as you think.
Album coming soon
by Han The Man And The Band on Jun 18, 2009 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions
two sites is "a ton" nowadays?
Interesting development.
WAR: Wins Above Replacement. How many wins a player has produced above replacement-level, as determined by linear weights for batting, UZR for fielding, adjusted for position/park/allthatgoodstuff. We’re talking batting, baserunning, range, arm, errors, (almost) anything you can think of.
I would like nothing more than if you read Dave Cameron’s series on the components and adjustments that go into that one little number.
PS: OBP wasn’t an OFFICIAL MLB statistic until 1984. Would you care to argue that it was less important in 1983?
Marlins Stadium: When It's Raining, The Roof Will Happen!
I dont know why I even have to reply to this, but...
I checked a couple pages of google sites… those just were the well-known sites.
As to Dave Cameron, I have never heard of him. But it looks like he is just a writer.
Not a scout, GM, coach or anything involved directly in baseball. He is just another guy in the media. One with a calculator and a lot of free time.
Until WAR is actually recognized by MLB, I don’t know how much credit I can give it. That goes for Dave Cameron also. I’d rather take advice from Mike Cameron.
Album coming soon
by Han The Man And The Band on Jun 19, 2009 1:04 AM EDT up reply actions
Dave Cameron got the Mariners pitching coach to change King Felix's pitch mix
But no, he’s not involved in baseball at all. And certainly he doesn’t know anything, because it’s not like either the coach or Felix himself credited his work with increased effectiveness. Oh no wait, they did.
“Until WAR is actually recognized by MLB, I don’t know how much credit I can give it.”
Again, OBP wasn’t recognized by Major League Baseball until 1984. Does that mean it was insignificant in 1983?
PS: “As to Dave Cameron, I have never heard of him. But it looks like he is just a writer.
Not a scout, GM, coach or anything involved directly in baseball. He is just another guy in the media. One with a calculator and a lot of free time.”
Funny, because one could say the same thing of you, except you don’t even have a calculator. By your own logic, we shouldn’t pay any attention to what you think.
And for once, we agree.
Marlins Stadium: When It's Raining, The Roof Will Happen!
KING?
KING Felix? I don’t think Lebron even deserves that nickname.
How do you figure Felix does? So Mr. Cameron changed one pitcher’s pitches.
I was obviously being facetious about him now knowing anything.
My point, which you all obviously didn’t get, is that while WAR may be a debatable statistic the numbers I put up are legitimate no matter which scout/GM/player/coach/analyst you talk to (well except you, but you aren’t a GM thankfully).
Album coming soon
by Han The Man And The Band on Jun 21, 2009 4:27 AM EDT up reply actions
Laughable?
Firstly, all “accepted” statistics start of the same way WAR has – “some guy” with “too much free time” and a calculator. Most of them go on to make a ton of money once their idea is embraced.
Secondly, I really wouldn’t doubt Dan’s ability to pull out useful statistics, as he seems to be the best one around here at finding the stat to answer any question somebody comes around here with.
Thirdly, you don’t really have to accept it, nor does MLB. The math works out in it, and the numbers don’t lie with the results it produces – I could care less if my 3 week old niece made it with crayons when trying to write my name with a crayola crayon…
Pierre's range....
Pierre’s range may not be the same as it was in his prime. But I don’t think Cody has anything on him.
You all said back up your statements with numbers. Let’s do this…
If Pierre lost a step, how is he third in the NL in SBs. Give him another 50 ABs like what Michael Bourn has (the person in 1st) and he will be able to make up some of that difference. JP has 16 SBs in 191 ABs compared to Bourn’s 23 SBs in 239 ABs. 16 SBs is FOUR times what Cody has in 233 ABs.
With all that being said, there is no doubt JP can still cover more ground than Cody. JP has other intangibles going for him too. JP is a veteran. He has more experience so he sees the ball coming off the bat better, gets better jumps, and just knows where to put himself in any given situation. It also really helps that he played CF for the Marlins before. Adjusting back to our park would be a lot easier for him than any other player.
Other than speed, as for as the numbers go…
in 191 ABs (compared to Cody’s 233 ABs), Juan Pierre has more runs, hits, walks, SBs.
JP has only 16 K’s compared to Cody’s enormous 54. At that rate, Cody is going to have over 130 K’s.
At the rate JP puts the ball in play, and with his speed, it’s easy to assume JP’s OBP is almost 80 pts higher (JP’s OBP is .390). Cody’s OBP is .315 which is respectable for a BATTING AVERAGE. I have no idea why you were making a big deal about a .315 OBP. On the other hand, JP’s batting average is .330 which is the best on the NL-leading Dodgers and 5th best in the NL (7th best in the Majors). JP’s OPS is also higher than Cody’s (.815 compared to .787)
Now what was everyone saying about Cody having better numbers and being a better player?
I will give you all one thing. Someone said the salary difference would be a problem. That is a definite. But as far as Cody>JP, hahahahahahahaha you guys and your WARs crack me up. I forgot WARs decide World Series nowadays.
Album coming soon
by Han The Man And The Band on Jun 18, 2009 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Hmm
If JP was still so good at CF, can you explain to me why he isn’t starting there out in LA… or even when they played back at Land Shark Stadium a couple of weeks ago? Something tells me Joe Torre is a smart man that knows what he is doing.
JP has always been a tough strike out, no power, lead off man. Cody is a swing from the heals, all or nothing, middle of the order guy. Apples to Oranges when you want to compare stats straight up. We tried the speed thing, it didn’t work out.
It is Apples and Oranges..
and we need apples, not oranges. We have had an excess of power for the last couple years. We need to go back to the “speed thing,” because it did work. I guess you weren’t watching the ‘03 world series team all season. Do you not remember how much JP contributed to that team? He is not much different now. He can still contribute at a high level and more with what we need than Cody. Age is not as big of a deal nowadays. He is still solid as his NUMBERS prove. Forget a WAR, lets stick with more relevant statistics please. You guys don’t need graphs and equations to play baseball. They never had ‘em before. You are either a ball player or you aren’t. You all obviously aren’t ball players though cus ball players know a ball player when they see them. Just try to remember how well JP played with our team. Maybe you will come around.
Album coming soon
by Han The Man And The Band on Jun 21, 2009 4:33 AM EDT up reply actions
I think its safe to say...
Juan would get on base and have more of a chance at scoring than Cody.
That is what we need. There’s no question we have an excess of power hitters.
As far as D goes, I know Coghlan has done a lot already, but I can see him playing CF.
Cog has great speed and has been superb in the OF so far. JP can handle LF range-wise without a doubt and his so-called “anemic” arm won’t be as broadcasted there.
For the mean time at least, while Maybin figures out his swing.
CC and JP at the top of the lineup would be deadly. Talk about Hanley/Cantu/Hermida having a field day.
Album coming soon
by Han The Man And The Band on Jun 17, 2009 10:46 AM EDT reply actions
No offense, but you did see FishCrazy’s OBP numbers, right? And Cody’s OBP not only was .316 all of last season, but is .316 this year through 200+ PA as well.
Pierre is what he is: a high contact hitter who steal bases when he gets on but can only get on with singles. He won’t get any extra bases (and you say we don’t need that, but I’d argue you could always use it) and he won’t draw walks. JP’s career BB% of 5.8%, though it’s been higher this year; Cody’s career BB% is 7.2, though I’d estimate it to be more like 5.6-6.0%. JP looks good this year because he has a ridiculous BABIP that’s 40 points above his career average. It’s a whole lot of singles that are happening to drop and have a good chance of regressing to the mean.
What you’re suggesting is replacing a player who is superior defensively to all of the team’s outfielders not named Brett Carroll, packs a .200+ ISO, and as dan has pointed out, has been worth 4 WAR over the last two years, for a player who is at best a league average left fielder defensively, an inferior bat who may get on base at a better clip? Not to mention the loss of value defensively by moving Coghlan, who just started playing outfield a month ago, to the most demanding of outfield positions in center field.
Just because you say it’s “safe to say,” doesn’t mean it is. I don’t want to sound mean, but you need to back up a statement like that with something.
Did you see?
Fish Crazy’s OBP #‘s say JP was better in the last 4 years than Cody’s OBP last year.
Or did I read that wrong?
Album coming soon
by Han The Man And The Band on Jun 18, 2009 6:26 PM EDT reply actions
By a slim margin
very slim. as in on base .01% more of the time…
which equates to less than 10 times in 600 PA
Either way...
JP’s numbers this year speak for themself. He is one of the top 10 best hitters in the NL. Cody Ross isn’t one of the top 10 hitters among CFs in the NL.
Album coming soon
by Han The Man And The Band on Jun 18, 2009 7:03 PM EDT reply actions
Again, I don’t like the way you phrased your argument here. You say it’s selfp-evident when it’s not.
What makes him a top 10 hitter in the NL? Is this in terms of OPS, OPS+, bRAA (Batting Runs Above Average, as mentioned in Dave Cameron’s pieces that Dan referenced)? Or is in terms of batting average, which has been proven to be a statistic significantly less related to run scoring than the above mentioned stats (not to mention OBP and SLG).
And being a hitter isn’t the only thing, you know. Cody is a viable, if not average center fielder (he’s something like -3 runs this year in center by UZR, last year he was +11). Pierre is a league average left fielder and likely a -5 or 6 center fielder at best. The value difference between a league average CF and LF is supposed to be 10 runs over the course of a season, somewhat significant. If Cody was anywhere above average, it’d be a greater difference as well.
And of course, someone mentioned Pierre’s price, $9 million for a .700+ OPS. Not a smart move.
First of all...
His OPS is higher than Codys…
Second of all, I don’t care what any WAR, UZR, or Dave Cameron blog says.
Fact is JP is a vet. Cody is still young. JP knows how to play CF better. JP is definitely quicker than Cody. If someone is getting better jumps, makes less mistakes, and is quicker, I think you should take them.
I’m sorry you guys seem to have some sort of attachment to Cody Ross. I know you all want to explain to yourself why he plays so much on our team. You don’t want it to seem like the management is wasting by playing him there and not someone else. But the fact is, he wouldn’t play CF for 99% of teams in the MLB.
Album coming soon
by Han The Man And The Band on Jun 19, 2009 1:11 AM EDT up reply actions
Again
JOE TORRE DOESN’T PLAY HIM IN CENTER FIELD. Over someone that’s younger, slower, and apparently isn’t a top 10 hitter in the NL.
And just for shts and giggles, regardless of this argument, because I think your assertion that he is a top 10 hitter is the funnies thing I’ve seen since “Mother Lover” on SNL…the top ten hitters, regardless of defense, in the league according to ESPN and Yahoo! Sports are:
1 Pujols
2 Ibanez
3 Braun
4 Fielder
5 Utley
6 Wright
7 A. Gonzalez
8 Beltran
9 J. Upton
10 R. Howard
Pierre comes in around #30 on both of those lists, being the 4th or 5th Dodger.
and where is Cody?
1000000000000000000th
Album coming soon
by Han The Man And The Band on Jun 21, 2009 4:34 AM EDT up reply actions
I’d hate to go too much further with this sort of argument, because we’re discussing things with different values.
UZR is measured subjectively, by watching tape, play-by-play, and doing calculations to figure out an approximate run value. Admittedly, none of it is available to the public other than the final tally, but it basically agrees with normal knowledge (aka, Pujols is gold at 1B, Dunn stinks in LF, yada yada). If you’re interested in a more transparent advanced metric, +/- is more simple to understand and translate, for the most part. But if you’re going to stick with statistics that are inferior because “MLB” doesn’t accept them, good luck finding anything other than fielding percentage and errors on the MLB website.
(Note: MLB does recognize range factor, but there are a ton of problems with that statistic as well. Truth of the matter is, defense is hard to evaluate, and the new metrics are much better at it than the traditional ones.)
It’s not an attachment to Ross. Over the past three seasons, he’s been the better player. If you’re arguing that JP has been the better player this year, than OK, I’d be more accepting, and it’s certainly a convincing argument. But 200 plate appearances of good doesn’t erase three years of terrible. And while Ross is likely to maintain this sort of production for the better part of the year, JP most assuredly will not maintain the production he’s putting up.
There just seems to be a lot of holes in these supposed never wrong equations
It sounds like there is a lot of subjectivity that goes into these equations (i.e. Pujols is gold, Dunn is garbage etc..)
I trust relevant stats like Runs scored, SBs, Hits… Those numbers are not debatable. You think Torre sits around and decides his lineup by WAR numbers. That’s about as likely as Anna K winning a major tennis tournament.
Album coming soon
by Han The Man And The Band on Jun 21, 2009 4:39 AM EDT reply actions
every number that you "trust" is included in WAR
weighted by relative importance in terms of how many runs they lead to.
The idea that it’s the equation that’s subjective is pretty funny though, especially when your argument boils down to “You are either a ball player or you aren’t. You all obviously aren’t ball players though cus ball players know a ball player when they see them.”
PS: Do I think Torre “sits around and decides his lineup by WAR numbers?” Maybe. His book has an entire chapter on how advanced analytics shaped both his team and Boston. He talks about run expectancy which, if you actually took the time to read the pieces on WAR, you’d know is the underlying principle. Oh, and he uses defensive numbers that (gasp) aren’t found on MLB.com! Obviously Joe Torre isn’t a ballplayer.
PPS: Nice Kournikova reference. Both relevant and timely.
Marlins Stadium: When It's Raining, The Roof Will Happen!
I mentioned that UZR does tend to agree with what is generally considered correct (ie. Pujols is good at 1B, Dunn is a bad LF). And it is a subjective study, in the sense that defense HAS to be measured subjectively, play-by-play, to get the best data out of it. Heck, the primarily cited defensive statistic, errors and its related fielding percentage, is COMPLETELY subjective and is only a small part of the defensive equation.
To suggest that WAR, which is calculated using things such as hits, singles, doubles, home runs, walks, all the things you clamored about, is subjective is a load. If you read an article on linear weights, it will tell you how they use traditional counting statistics that are recognized by MLB to measure theoretical run totals, which would give you a better idea of what is contributing to a team’s performance.
But I’m going to guess that you aren’t going to even try, so I wonder now why I just mentioned it.
I meant UZR not WAR...
is subjective.. But yes, I will read a little more into WAR.
But when you do a google search and dont find shit about it for pages, you might understand why I dont think its as relevant as most other stats.
WAR, UZR and all those other equations are still up to debate.
The stats I talk about ARENT
Album coming soon
by Han The Man And The Band on Jun 21, 2009 1:46 PM EDT reply actions
In order to measure defense, a measure of subjectivity is necessary. Defensive play simply can’t be measured without watching plays, because the numbers available to measure defense are either already subjective (errors and the corresponding fielding percentage), inaccurate (look up Fielding Runs Above Average), untranslatable/incomparable between positions (Range Factor), or incomplete (all of the above). UZR and John Dewan’s +/- are much more accurate at determining defense.
One last note, if you looked up Wins Above Replacement (WAR), a definition of it is on the first page of Google. And UZR gets you more about how it’s being used and how effective it is.
Not saying they’re the be-all, end-all, but the work done on these statistics is very good, the results are very accurate, and it simply can’t be dismissed.
Don't you think if I knew it stood for...
Wins Above Replacement, I wouldn’t have been searching for it to begin with…
When you guys just say WAR, and I have never heard that term before, I can only search so many things. Wins Above Replacement was not the first thing to come to mind.
Either way, I didn’t mean to come across as dismissing them. All I’ve said, again and again, is that the multitude of stats I mentioned about JP outweigh the WAR & UZR numbers combined.
Just for argument sake, let’s go through it one more time…
JP’s stats that are better than Cody’s:
If Pierre lost a step, how is he third in the NL in SBs. Give him another 50 ABs like what Michael Bourn has (the person in 1st) and he will be able to make up some of that difference. JP has 16 SBs in 191 ABs compared to Bourn’s 23 SBs in 239 ABs. 16 SBs is FOUR times what Cody has in 233 ABs.
With all that being said, there is no doubt JP can still cover more ground than Cody. JP has other intangibles going for him too. JP is a veteran. He has more experience so he sees the ball coming off the bat better, gets better jumps, and just knows where to put himself in any given situation. It also really helps that he played CF for the Marlins before. Adjusting back to our park would be a lot easier for him than any other player.
Other than speed, as for as the numbers go…
in 191 ABs (compared to Cody’s 233 ABs), Juan Pierre has more runs, hits, walks, SBs.
JP has only 16 K’s compared to Cody’s enormous 54. At that rate, Cody is going to have over 130 K’s.
At the rate JP puts the ball in play, and with his speed, it’s easy to assume JP’s OBP is almost 80 pts higher (JP’s OBP is .390). Cody’s OBP is .315 which is respectable for a BATTING AVERAGE. I have no idea why you were making a big deal about a .315 OBP. On the other hand, JP’s batting average is .330 which is the best on the NL-leading Dodgers and 5th best in the NL (7th best in the Majors). JP’s OPS is also higher than Cody’s (.815 compared to .787)
Cody’s numbers ahead of JP’s:
WAR
UZR
But I am sure I am still wrong somehow according to all of you…
Album coming soon
by Han The Man And The Band on Jun 22, 2009 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions
I think we're kind of going in circles here.
Yes, JP does the following significantly better than Cody: steal bases, hit for average, strike out less,
The question isn’t if he may be a better player than Cody. As we’ve been arguing about, there are maaaany degrees of “better.” Heck, some of the stats here say that Cody is the better player. But even if we accept JP’s overall superiority as a given, the REAL question is whether he’s worth acquiring.
Is he so much better than Cody that we should trade a king’s ransom for him? That we should take on his $9 million salary? If the Marlins really did want to make a move and add salary, is centerfield really the pressing issue here?
If you want to argue about who’s better in an abstract, hot-stove-league way, that’s fine. But we’re talking about the real-life ramifications of trying to trade for this guy. And certainly no edge Pierre has over Cody is worth what it would take to trade for him, or what it would cost to have him. And I’ll repeat that all of this may well be moot if and when Maybin comes back up.
Now I can respect that...
I also agree the real question is the salary.
I also agree CF may not be not be the most pressing issue (defensively), but we need more of a contact hitter at CF, 2nd, or 3B. That is the most pressing issue in my opinion. That would solve our #2 hitter problem, which is obviously getting ridiculous with Helms even getting a shot there. Fredi is trying anything. If JP and Cog were 1-2, Hanley could stay at 3rd where he belongs. Cantu at 4th, Herm at 5th, and so on…
Either way, we don’t necessarily HAVE to trade Cody either. I just think we need a JP style hitter at that #2 spot. Forget the money. It doesn’t matter who it is. Just make it happen.
Album coming soon
by Han The Man And The Band on Jun 22, 2009 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions
If you don’t want to count UZR, I won’t discuss the defensive aspect of the game. From what I’ve seen, Cody is better, but let’s say they’re even for the sake of argument.
The important number that JP has right now, the number that’s boosting a batting average that is far inflated than what you would expect from him, is his BABIP, Batting Average on Balls In Play (you can look it up). That’s the batting average on balls that aren’t home runs or strikeouts. Cody and JP do a similar job drawing walks, in that neither of them are any good. The main difference is in batting average, which is a result of Ross’s average BABIP (.301 this season, career .299) and JP’s high BABIP (.368 this season, career .315).
Note that BABIP essentially cannot be controlled consistently by the hitter, as it is very defense-dependent. Thus, BABIP is used as a measure of luck, with high BABIP’s generally a sign of good luck, balls falling safely at a higher than expected rate. One can expect Pierre’s numbers to regress because he can’t expect balls to fall in at the rate they are right now. Meanwhile, this is pretty much Cody’s level of production, not expecting much more or less.
I can understand your reasoning for wanting a Pierre-type player, but I think the practicality of acquiring a player who, when he’s been lucky for much of the year has only been marginally better than Cody in overall value, to replace a guy who’s about the same and will cost $7.5 million less, is unnecessary.
We don’t need a contact hitter so much as we need an OBP guy, and those don’t always go hand in hand. If none can be found in the market, why bother? Cody produces offensively at a very good clip, even if his style isn’t the type that fits the current “need.”
From what I've seen...
From what I’ve seen just from YOUR argument is that JP is better this year AND on average. I know you were trying to make a point about JP being playing better than his career stats, but his career stats are still superior to Cody’s. 15 pts, on average, is actually quite a lot also.
As far as defense goes, JP is at the least even. He’s without a doubt faster and has far more experience. How could be worse, or even tied? He’s gonna get better jumps and also get to the ball quicker. That will make up for his arm, which Cody may have him on by a slim margin. Cody’s arm is at best average, but more likely less than average. I’d venture to say he is one of the worst CFs when it comes to assists. Either way, let’s look at some stats.
I’m looking at Cody’s defensive stats. Let me run through them…
Compared to other MLB CF’s, he is tied for 21st in fielding % (He has a .980 and the funny thing is he doesn’t even have enough games there to qualify. The more someone plays the worse numbers usually get.)
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/fielding?groupId=9&season=2009&seasonType=2&split=84&sortOrder=true&sortColumn=fieldingPct&qualified=1
Let’s compare that to JP’s fielding%. Wow, what a surprise. JP is boasting a solid 1.000% fielding % (that’s in both LF & CF). JP has yet to make an error. With that kind of play, that is a lot of runs saved and runners stranded.
As far as ZR goes, JP 10.500 in CF on the season, and in LF it’s 13.420. JP’s LF ZR is 5th best.
Cody’s ZR in CF is 9.394.
With all that being said, those numbers don’t lie. JP looks to be better defensively.
With better D and a much better OBP, there’s no question JP>Cody.
Album coming soon
by Han The Man And The Band on Jun 22, 2009 6:45 PM EDT up reply actions
OK, BABIP is a statistic that mostly isn’t in control of the hitter. Having a higher career BABIP doesn’t mean you’re a better player, it means the way you hit, you get balls in play to fall a little more in your favor than usual. Admittedly there are ways to get more balls in play through (hitting more grounders/line drives) but for the most part it’s very dependent on defense.
As a result, BABIP is usually used as a measurement of luck. For instance, check out JP’s BABIP and slash line last year.
2008 JP:
BABIP: .300, .283/.327/.328
Here’s 2007 JP, who matches his career BABIP:
2007 JP:
BABIP: .311, .293/.331/.353
Since we can expect regression in his BABIP, we can expect a subsequent regression in his slash numbers. That’s what I was trying to get at it with that argument. Check out how BABIP works; here’s a decent example from The Hardball Times.
However with Cody, you get what you see.
2009 Ross
BABIP: .301, .265/.312/.486
2008 Ross:
BABIP: .303, .260/.316/.488
If we project JP’s batting average to fall 20 points (reasonable given his high BABIP), you can expect a line of .317/.372/.410, an OPS of .782. If you take Cody’s numbers and figure he remains around where he currently stands due to his consistent BABIP, you can get an OPS of around .800. If you consider that OPS overvalues SLG, it could conceivably be even, though JP’s projection might actually be a bit optimistic.
Nowadays there’s a lot of data available, and something like BABIP can tell us a lot about projection and analysis of performance, which is something we need to do to make a trade like this.
Final note: never use fielding percentage, it’s a terrible statistic. More errors can be made, for example, by players who can get to a ball better than those who can’t. If, for example, JP had less range than Cody, there would be balls that Cody struggled to get to and mishandled that JP would simply let fall for hits. Just one of the reasons why errors and fielding percentage are only part of the defensive equation.
I’ve done a lot to try and convince you. If you don’t believe me and my analysis, that’s fine, your opinion. But I hope you look into the stats I’ve mentioned and try to understand them and why I thought they’d be important in this argument, it seems like you’re pretty open to that at least. Check them out and maybe you’ll find them useful.
I definitely will check everything out you all are saying.
I like to be well-versed and understanding of all sides of every argument.
One note: If JP had less range than Cody, I wouldn’t have mentioned those numbers. But JP’s ZR is higher than Cody’s so it makes his his fielding % that much more important.
Album coming soon
by Han The Man And The Band on Jun 23, 2009 12:02 AM EDT up reply actions
That sounds fair. I guarantee you some of the stuff that was mentioned here will make a lot of sense when you look at it. Enjoy the new stats and for now, we’ll agree to disagree.
Sounds good, sounds good
Album coming soon
by Han The Man And The Band on Jun 23, 2009 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions
and yes, you obviously aren't a ball player...
While I come from a long line a ball players…
My Great Grandpa played pro ball…
My Grandpa played pro ball…
My Dad played at UCLA..
and I was playing at Gulliver Academy in South Florida under a full scholarship and getting scouted by several colleges, but I had so many shoulder and elbow issues I decided to just stick with school. My family couldn’t afford all those surgeries at that time.
With that being said, I don’t need stats…although I dis put up enough stats comparing JP and Cody to sell my case a thousand times over. I know a ball player when I see one. Helms is a player. He still gots it upstairs. You can lose a step and still contribute at a very high level. But I don’t see why JP in center for a half of a year is risky. He could be the player that sets us over the top. If we got him and a couple more relievers, we will be SET.
Album coming soon
by Han The Man And The Band on Jun 21, 2009 1:52 PM EDT reply actions
did... not dis lol
Album coming soon
by Han The Man And The Band on Jun 21, 2009 1:53 PM EDT reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Ku Klux Klan, umpires and bowling: Why the minor leagues tossed out Jim Evans academy
- The Cardinals Hall of Fame can now be found at Bill Clinton’s library in Arkansas (Huh?)
- Will Bryce Harper start the season with the Nationals?
- Mitch Mustain puts football behind him, signs reported rookie deal with White Sox
- Robinson Cano and Denzel Washington face off in Jay Leno’s Yankees trivia contest
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
