Emilio Bonifacio to leadoff

by craig on Apr 4, 2009 2:07 PM EDT in News and Rumors

Fredi has, for reasons unbeknownst to me, decided that Emilio Bonifacio will be the leadoff hitter.

Marlins manager Fredi Gonzalez has decided at least initially to hit the switch-hitting Emilio Bonifacio leadoff against both right- and left-handed pitching.

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Gonzalez likes the fact Bonifacio is more of a pure base stealer than Maybin

In what world does Fredi live in?

I will try to put this as nicely as I can and here goes: Bonifacio is far from a pure base stealer and actually he sucks. His major league success percentage is 58%. Now while that may say a pure base stealar to some, it doesn't to me. In order to help and not hurt the team, he needs to be around 70%. And 58% ain't 70%.

On the other hand, Maybin has attempted 9 steals and has been successful every time.

But given I don't make the decisions, which is probably a good thing, maybe I'm missing something. If the team thinks Bonifacio is a good choice for hitting leadoff, then fine. I will sit and watch.

However, don't try and sell me on things he has yet to prove.

Oh, by the way, Maybin is slated to bat eight. Seems like to me the order of the two is reversed, but you may see it differently

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Are you kidding me?

Somehow I get the feeling this isn’t entirely Fredi’s decisions, but if this is truly his rationale for inserting Bonifacio as the everyday lead-off, he should have his Sporting News Manager of the Year award revoked. Without even debating the merits of who is in fact the better base-stealer, what a ridiculous basis on which to choose your lead-off man. Is Fredi still living in 1950’s? Has he heard of something called OBP? Geez, even in the 1950’s his reasoning would probably still be considered damn foolish. Either Fredi really believes this crap, and that makes me worry about his competence, or he’s insulting our intelligence by trying to pass off this load-of-crap explanation as legitimate.

Yes, I have a prospect fetish. That's why I'm a Marlins fan.

by Sashimi on Apr 4, 2009 2:39 PM EDT reply actions

While I was harsh on Fredi, I don't think he made this decision...

my guess is it came from the front office.

by craig on Apr 4, 2009 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Agreed

We’ll have to wait and see what happens.

I can’t wait till Opening Day! My buds and I will be there early drinking beer in Sec 311

I posted some fan shots of yesterdays game. Check em out.

by HadMatter on Apr 4, 2009 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Faith

I’m willing to have some faith the first couple weeks of the season. I also have some faith that if the experiment does not work out, they will remedy it quickly.

by GMFB on Apr 4, 2009 3:04 PM EDT reply actions

The Experiment.

Hypothesis: By giving extra at-bats to someone who makes outs at the plate, and runs into outs when he does luck into getting on, thereby reducing our total number of at-bats and the number of potential runners for the heart of the order to drive in, we will score more runs.

That is one hell of an experiment. Next up for Professor Gonzalez? “By depriving an organism of water and nutrients, we will give it a longer lifespan.”

by dan 2.0 on Apr 4, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions

I think all the anxiety about Bonafacio is based on limited data

He’s never really played a full season

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bonifem01.shtml?redir

I’m just not sure that we have enough data to make any meaningful judgments. So I’ll just give him a chance. I would say these guys (Beinfast etc) do have a pretty good record for judging talent..

Maybin certainly could lead off, but from what I understand he actually has a lot of potential as a power hitter also. So maybe he should bat lower in the order but not 8th please.

I just hope they are not bringing Lindstrom back too soon.

by jrhana on Apr 4, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions

He has over 2000 minor league ABs

And in those minor league seasons, he never topped a .300 translated OBP. His best season was in Tucson with a .288 MLE (.293 Davenport).

In order for him to be an even marginal lead-off hitter, he’d have to make a gigantic leap in skill at the same time he’s making the gigantic transition to major league pitching. A guy who’s used to MLB pitching might have a shot at the skill leap; a guy who’s shown strong on-base skills in the minors might have a shot at the pitching leap. It is unfathomable that someone with neither advantage will overcome both.

And that stands whether he starts off 10-for-20 or 0-for-20, or whatever ridiculous leash Fredi said he’ll give. That’s the most infuriating part of the whole thing. Either you believe he’s capable or you don’t; if you’d change your thinking after a week’s worth of games, you’re not fit to be making the decision either way.

by dan 2.0 on Apr 4, 2009 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions

My question

i agree with the data assessment. My only question is: why would they decide to do this then? Save face with the offseason moves? Just doesn’t make sense to me that they think Bonifacio isn’t capable. Personally, I much prefer Maybin at leadoff.

by GMFB on Apr 4, 2009 8:17 PM EDT up reply actions

I doubt Maybin’s ready either, though. And maybe that’s the reasoning: it lets them bring Maybin along slowly. If asking Bonifacio to do too much too soon harms him, oh well. His ultimate major league role is probably as a utility infielder/pinch-runner anyway. Maybin’s got more to play for, and therefore more to lose if he fails this early. If he works out in the 8th/2nd spot, maybe you bring him around — if not, no harm done, wait ’til next year.

And to be honest, I was pretty impressed by Bonifacio today. Obviously he’s not going to hit an inside-the-park home run or get four hits every game, but he obviously has remarkable speed. And I’d agree speed isn’t nearly as important as OBP, but I also think it’s underrated a bit by some people; having a base-stealer on base does all kinds of stuff which doesn’t show up on the stat sheets. Makes the pitcher throw from the stretch, for one thing, which… are there any statistics on the effects of that? Also makes the double play tougher, between the steals and the lead runner’s improved chance to break it up. If Bonifacio can get on base, say, 35% of the time — and that’s admittedly a big if — I say we go with him.

(I will note that translated OBP doesn’t tend to, ahem, translate well to a guy who geets a lot of hits off drag bunts — a bunt hit is pretty much the same everywhere, from the minors to the majors.)

Or if they both pan out, maybe go Maybin-Bonifacio-Hanley at the top of the order? I have to admit I love the idea of either or both of those guys on base with Hanley at the plate. As though he’s not terrifying enough, now the opposing pitcher can’t even wind up on him? And if he gets on, it’s the same thing again for the no. 4 hitter.

Who I’m hoping is going to be Uggla, not Cantu, but that’s another story.

by 3.3seconds on Apr 6, 2009 11:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Could be right but hope you're wrong

I’m much more worried that we’ll be seeing these kinds of headlines:

<Marlins’ Johnson Sharp, But Bullpen Collapses>

Your starter pitches a good to great game and you have a 2-3 run lead which evaporates in the 7th inning. Very depressing way to lose ballgames.

But hey let’s be optimistic.

by jrhana on Apr 4, 2009 5:57 PM EDT reply actions

This is how the team is going to finish 4th

Emilio has no power and with word that he plans on having Hanley bat third, this lineup isn’t going to be good. I mean who’s going to be 2nd? And having Cameron bat 8th? Wow, great thing the team locked him long term, huh guys?

by Alexander Calloway on Apr 5, 2009 1:52 PM EDT reply actions

this reeks like Mike Rabelo

trade justification anyone?

by The Architect on Apr 5, 2009 4:07 PM EDT reply actions

You're forgetting some...

Jorge Julio and Armando Benitez to name two. This happens every year.

by craig on Apr 5, 2009 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions

And every year it reeks.

by craig on Apr 5, 2009 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions

you're right, but the weird thing is...

they’re doing this at the expense of another trade acquisition, Cameron Maybin.

I mean, they acquired Bonifacio for a couple guys they considered highly expendable, but it cost them a franchise all-time great to land Maybin. If trade-justification were the only reason, you would think that Maybin at least gets priority.

I dunno…this whole thing is just extremely bizarre.

by Fishcrazy on Apr 5, 2009 10:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Not exactly at his expense.

Whether it’s batting leadoff or second or eighth, Maybin would still be a starter. Not only that, but considering how highly he’s regarded both now, and perhaps even moreso at the time, nobody can deny getting quote-unquote something for Miggy/Dontrelle.

Bonifacio, on the other hand, if he didn’t get this job from the start, would have had to force his way into the lineup, either from the bench or from AAA. And that’s something that, as I think we’ve established, is unlikely he would have done, especially considering the rest of the talent trying to do the same thing. So without this, it’s likely Bonifacio would never have been seen as any kind of return for Olsen/Hammer.

Now Beinfest can say “Hey, nobody is a sure thing, but we thought so much of him that he was our leadoff guy right away. We thought we got value, but unfortunately these things don’t always pan out.” If you don’t give him the job out of training, the average fan never hears the name Bonifacio, and down the road when the trade comes up, it looks like a complete give-away. Which, of course, it was; but at least now Beinfest is saving face. Who cares if that comes at the expense of a couple games early in the season, right?

by dan 2.0 on Apr 5, 2009 10:58 PM EDT up reply actions