When you’re 26 and you haven’t managed to make the roster of arguably the single friendliest franchise for young and/or inexperienced players (admittedly more friendly for arms than bats), that’s a tell. When your big monster season comes in a park that makes Rockies hitters envious, that’s a tell. And yes, that’s “season” singular, as in 2007, because last year’s numbers in Albuquerque were as tremendous as those in Jupiter were horrendous (injuries, rehab, blah blah blah… 67 ABs, as pointed out above, isn’t worth judging anyway). Anyway, as I was saying, when you’ve shown at every level that you couldn’t draw a walk if you were spotted 3 balls (alternate joke: …if you had a pen and paper), that’s a tell. MLEs have their problems, but I find it hard to get around a 2007 MLE of .240/.286/.424. You can learn a lot of things when you adjust to the majors; drawing walks isn’t one of them.

Now, is it possible that I’m being unfair in writing off his Albuquerque numbers considering he still did outperform the other Topes? Sure. Is it possible that I’m being unfair in writing off the possibility that the coaches and scouts in the organization have either been wrong about his readiness or ignored by the decision-makers? Sure (in fact, this is probably the part most likely to be wrong). Is it possible that he’s another name ready to be added to the list of guys whose numbers and/or MLEs have shortchanged their ability? Sure.

But is it likely? I wouldn’t say so. Considering the care the organization has taken in keeping the top guys from even getting to Albuquerque, much less staying, I wouldn’t bet on it. And when it comes down to it, considering most (all?) of us have actually seen only a handful of his minor league ABs, if that, I can’t help but wonder if the general tide of wanting him to get a chance isn’t more out of some ephemeral sentiment, some great quote or game recap we read, where we decided this is one of the good guys, and now regardless of the big picture, we just want the chance to be validated. I mean, I think everybody here, myself included, had, and continue to have, a big place in our hearts for Jason Wood and his story. And every spring we’d call for him to finally get his real shot — and bless him for getting it, but for as great a story it was and as happy it made us, he performed like a guy who most teams wouldn’t have called up.

Let’s be honest: all in all, baseball is a pretty efficient marketplace. Guys who slip through the cracks only to emerge as legitimate players are rare (perhaps Uggla has spoiled us). Though it should be noted that the hitter who languished in the minors without getting his shot and then “proved scouts wrong” when he did (your Ugglas, Custs, Peñas, etc), more often than not, has a similar profile: low average due to Ks, mid-to-high OBP, and power. They are the Three True Outcomes guys whose coaches/scouts can’t get past the Ks and the lack of base hits to see that there is value in what it is they can do. Carroll certainly has the Ks, but he hasn’t mashed outside of Albuquerque and he makes Bonifacio look like an on-base machine.

As a 26 year old, he’s as much a known quantity as anyone on the team. And as far as I can tell, that quantity is an arm that would stand with anyone’s in the bigs and a bat that has rightly been put in quad-A territory. I honestly wouldn’t mind him making the team as the 5th OF, getting MLB coaching and video work every day, and being around to spell Hermida or Cody or stepping up if/when Amezaga has to be an infielder. If he’s ever going to get a shot, it needs to be this year. But a guy who has one last shot to prove himself is not the same as a guy who deserves that shot. And as far as I can tell, Carroll doesn’t.

…wow, did I just write twenty pages about something not at all important and probably repeated and rambled for 90% of it? I guess this means I am officially back.