BP has the Marlins finishing last

by craig on Feb 10, 2009 11:46 AM EST in News and Rumors

Baseball Prospectus ran their numbers and once again the Marlins are projected to finish last in the division.

(This is premium stuff and requires a subscription to see everything.)

Ah, last again. Honestly I don't have a problem that most all of the projections having the Marlins finishing last in the division. While I don't think they are right, since most of the starters for next season didn't make an appearance on the team in 2008 until after the All-Star break and the projections aren't accounting for that. It is just the way it goes.

Now, I will have a problem when the Marlins do better than projected and a few of the stat guys start comparing results to the early season predictions and claim the Marlins are all smoke and mirrors. Trust me it will happen. Not from BP or BtB but someone will do it. It happens every year and it always makes me laugh.

I'm not running down the usefulness of stats, they have there place and it is an important one, but it just seems, on occasion, context is lost by some.

Something gives me the idea I'm going to get ripped for this. Oh well.

Tweet Comment 1 comment | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

819 runs allowed?

I don’t have a BP subscription, so I can’t see all the stats. But predicting the Marlins will give up 819 runs doesn’t make a lot of sense. They gave up 767 last year, when they started with a four-man rotation and Mark Hendrickson as the Opening Day starter. The ‘09 rotation has a lot to prove, but there’s no question it’s stronger than the ’08 version. Same goes for the bullpen.

Last year, only three teams in the National League gave up 819 runs or more: the Nats, the Pirates, and the Rockies. Why does BP think the Marlins will sink to that level this year?

by mhirsch on Feb 10, 2009 2:46 PM EST reply actions