BBTF's ZiP Projections for the Marlins
The Baseball Think Factory put out their yearly computer projections for the Marlins. Here is a tidbit of their intro:
The Marlins, given an ownership willing to invest in the team, have a lot of talent. They have a player who may very well be the best player in baseball over the next 10 years. Some decent supporting cast in the offense and some high-upside hitting prospects. Josh Johnson was healthy, throwing 209 innings, and Ricky Nolasco had one of the best 5.06 ERA seasons around. But Marlin fans still have no reason to believe that they're seeing the start of something rather than the end of something. Even Ramirez's extremely reasonable 6-year, $70 million contract doesn't necessarily mean that he'll be a Marlin for the rest of the contract. The Marlins continuing to win 85-90 games relies on Beinfest and Hill continuing to spin straw into gold faster than Jeff Loria can give it away, which is a very difficult task.
If you want to check the whole thing out, go here:
2010 ZiPs Projections - Florida Marlins
As with all projections they have their fallacies, but that doesn't mean they aren't fun to look at during the offseason. And sometimes they are even more fun to look at after the season is over and do the "What were they thinking?" analysis.
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You may remember Dawkins back before he started being called by his nickname and went by Travis. The Reds liked him a lot, but he never really turned his tools into baseball skills. I’ve always been surprised that he hasn’t snuck in a few more at-bats in the majors (like Joe Thurston did), but he’s such a sloppy shortstop that he’s never really taken into consideration for a cup of coffee any more and his bat certainly won’t get him a chance.
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Dan Szymborski
dan@baseballprimer.com

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