BP's Final Hit List

by craig on Oct 13, 2009 7:35 AM EDT in News Comment 8 comments

Baseball Prospectus released their final Prospectus Hit List for the season. Unfortunately, it is premium content and you have to pay to play in order to read it.

When they got through crunching the numbers the Marlins finished number 14 out of 30. Okay, fine. But when one examines the list a little closer you will notice, if you can see it, that the Braves finished number 8. Let me see if I get this right, the Marlins finished behind a team in the rankings they finished ahead of in the division? Not to mention the Fish won the head-to-head series.

I'm not exactly sure how the Hit List Factor is calculated. (I read how it was when they decided to move to it, and it was an improvement. But I have forgotten the exact details.) But there seems to be a bit of a flaw in the explanatory capabilities of the statistical model. Which is true of all statistical models, since it is impossible to model real life. All you can hope for is to gain some insight into the specific area you are interested in. If you are 70 percent accurate you have done a pretty decent job. Of course adjustments can be made to improve the accuracy but it will never be 100 percent.

Bottom line is this: In the real world the Marlins finished ahead of the Braves.

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Comments

I have issues with the BPro Hit List.

But the Marlins winning more games and the Braves being a better team aren’t conflicting, necessarily.

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by Sky Kalkman on Oct 13, 2009 9:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

Sad as I am to admit it, the Marlins were not the better team.

BPro does an average of 1st order (Pythagorean), 2nd order (component Pythagorean), and 3rd order (adjusted for strength of schedule) wins. The Braves had an enormous pitching advantage over the Marlins, while the Fish had a sizable advantage hitting. The Braves probably posted around the same defense, so while I think the gap isn’t so bad, those numbers seem reasonable.

Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog
Come attend Intro to Sabermetrics 101!
Check me out at Beyond the Box Score as well.

by SFiercex4 on Oct 13, 2009 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

They average in actual wins, too, I think.

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by Sky Kalkman on Oct 13, 2009 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Braves started out slow, and we had a hot start. Surely this factors into end of the season records, and skews who the better team might be.

Go Nevada Wolf Pack!

by BacksThePack on Oct 13, 2009 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, but not more than runs scored/allowed or component stats

We were hot early in the year, doesn’t mean it doesn’t count. A Win/WAR/WARP is a Win/WAR/WARP, presumably.

Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog
Come attend Intro to Sabermetrics 101!
Check me out at Beyond the Box Score as well.

by SFiercex4 on Oct 13, 2009 8:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry Sky, but it is when the season is over.

Now you can pick an externality or whatever to explain why the results should have been different, but the fact remains the Marlins finished ahead of the Braves in the division and won the head-to-head series.

by craig on Oct 14, 2009 1:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs