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Florida Marlins 2009 early prediction

The Replacement Level Yankees every year breakout their calculators and try to predict how the season will unfurl.  This year is no different.

After running 100 trials and using the Hardball Times projections on the teams present rosters, this is what they came up with for the NL East in the 2009 season.

2009_nl_east_por_medium
  Yowser!

Going off their projections the Marlins will go from the third best record in franchise history, in terms of wins, to their worst finish since 1999.  Also, they have no chance of winning the division and the team making it into the playoffs via the wildcard will be a statistical fluke.  Who knew that Scott Olsen, Josh Willingham, Kevin Gregg, Mike Jacobs, Joe Nelson and Matt Treanor meant so much.

I have no idea what methodology was used to produce the results, but surely, there is no way on the face of the planet the Marlins will backslide that much.  I'm guessing they are doing some version of the Pythagorean Record.  But I really don't know.

Let's just say, I'm not buying.

But there is nothing wrong with playing with numbers, it gives the folks who play with them something do and gives people like me something to talk about in the offseason.

But in the Replacement Level Yankees' defense, they did put forth a disclaimer:

There’s still a lot that can change over the next few months, so don’t take these too seriously.

And that we won't.

I will say this: I'm thinking about stealing their tag line.

0 recs  |  Comment 4 comments

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Look on the bright side...

at least we’re still ahead of the Nationals.

by Fishcrazy on Jan 12, 2009 11:00 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Are you talking about the ticker?

Because that’s awesome… tomorrow = day 3000!

by jrsyeagle on Jan 12, 2009 12:10 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

that's funny

because last year these same projections had us finishing even worse.

66.3 – 95.7

AND behind the NAT’s.

That’s why we play the season!

Oh and Tampa finished in 4th and the Rockies won the NL west. A few of the more notable differences between the projections and reality.

by fishstick on Jan 12, 2009 1:43 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

More than likely...

We were predicted to be worse than this last year, I really don’t think the Marlins can be predicted by stats honestly…

by yboord028 on Jan 12, 2009 10:29 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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