FishStripes: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
New Blog: Voodoo Five for South Florida Bulls Fans!

Bo "Stop Sign" Porter

Bo Porter needs to work his shoulder out more and start windmilling some runners home.

I won't get all statsy on you but, if the third base coach thinks there is a better than a say 40 percent chance, the break-even point, that the runner will be safe he needs to send him and especially with 2 outs.  The statistics show that the runner has a better chance of scoring on a play at the plate than the next hitter getting a hit.  While this is true for baseball as a whole, it is especially true for the Marlins who aren't all that great at batting with runners in scoring position.

I'm not suggestion he send everyone, no matter who they are, to the plate.  If Jacobs or Lo Duca is running, the stop sign may be appropriate.  But like the other night when Amezaga was stopped at third representing the tying run with two outs, that was a bad decision.

I do understand that if a runner is thrown out at the plate the blame falls to the third base coach and therefore he may be hesitant to send the runner.  That is only human nature.  But if the third base coach wants to give the team the best chance to win, calculating who is running versus where the ball was hit, i.e. center, left or right field, he will send him if the success rate is deemed above 40 percent.

The success rate of a runner scoring from rounding third with two outs, is around 90 percent.

It is possible Tango Tiger will read this post and enlighten us further, and I hope he does.  But the bottom line is this: Bo "Stop Sign" Porter is being way too conservative.

And where the Marlins are in the standings, this is not a time to be conservative.  The Fish need to be in the going for broke mode.  Now, it may not work, but it is the way to go.

 

0 recs  |  Comment 1 comment

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

breakeven points

With a runner on 3b and less than 2 outs, the runner has around a 27% chance of scoring if he stays put. If he goes for it, he gains .73 runs. If he doesn’t, the inning ends and he loses his .27 runs, plus another .11 run potential lost by the batter and guys on deck. Basically, he can gain twice as much as he loses. For that kind of payoff, you only need to be successful one-third of the time to make the right decision.

With 1 out, the dynamic changes substantially. In this case, the tradeoff is in gaining .35 runs (you have a 65% chance of eventually scoring from 3B with 1 out) against losing those .65 runs plus another .18 run potential lost for the batters and guys on deck. So, +.35 against -.83. It’s your standard SB situation scenario: you gotta make it at least 70% of the time.

by tangotiger on Sep 8, 2008 3:29 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Welcome to the SB Nation blog about Florida Marlins.
Start posting about the Marlins »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

Connect_with_facebook

Cbs_fantasy_baseball_promo

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

Small
SB Nation Survey + Chance to donate $500 to a charity of this community's choice
Small
Opening Day line up
Buckner_small
Prospect Smackdown: Davis vs. Freeman vs. Morrison
Small
Bullpen Banter's Marlins Preview and Top 25 Prospects
Beer_chess_small
The Whole Enchilada
12475953_small
2010 NL East Fan Projections: SPs
Carpe_diem_small
The Four Best Words in the English Language: Catchers and Pitchers Report
Dan21_small
Fan Fest Pics
Small
Florida Marlins- the Heartbreaker team?
Fish_small
Fan Fest

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

SPONSORS

SBNation.com Recent Stories

Seattle Mariners pitcher Cliff Lee speaks during a baseball news conference at Safeco Field in Seattle on Friday, Jan. 22, 2010. Lee was acquired by the Mariners in a trade with the Philadelphia Phillies last December. (AP Photo/John Froschauer) link

Cliff Lee Out With Right Abdominal Strain

Detroit Tigers' Gerald Laird, left, is greeted by teammates Ryan Strieby, center, and Miguel Cabrera who were on base for his third-inning grand slam off New York Yankees pitcher Joba Chamberlain during a spring training baseball game in Lakeland, Fla., Wednesday, March 10, 2010.  (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

SB Nation's 2010 MLB Previews: Detroit Tigers, Sights Set On Success

Davey Johnson, center, a senior adviser for the Washington Nationals,  is shown in the dugout during a spring training baseball game against the New York Mets, Saturday, March 6, 2010, in Viera, Fla. (AP Photo/Rob Carr) +6 updates

Spring Training News and Notes, 3/19: Catching Up With Everyone

More from SBNation.com >


Managers

Drunkhomer_small craig

Gamefish_small GameFish