Ken Rosenthal thinks we'll trade...

by Matt Wilson on May 7, 2008 3:37 PM EDT

Rosenthal pointed out in this column that 14 Marlins will be eligible for arbitration next year, a fact he believes will result in some trades for our young Fish (basically, our best players). He thinks they could go as early as this summer.

I'm not sure if I agree, as I don't see many of these guys (outside of Hanley) getting huge salary bumps. I'd expect guys like Uggla and Hammer to get bumped into the $2MM range, with Hanley possibly from $4-5MM. Overall, this will result in a $10-15MM bump in payroll overall, which I think the franchise can absorb.

One guy I can see as trade bait, however, is Uggla, considering Chris Coghlan is waiting in the wings. I see Uggs as comparable to an Adam Dunn type, so some teams should be interested (maybe Cinci, with Dunn going FA after this year). In a smaller ballpark, he could potentially be a 40 homer guy.

I swear to god, if this team had any brains they would buy out Hanley's arb years with a long-term deal. I guarantee we will get the better end of the bargain. Hanley will make A-Rod money in the free agent market without a doubt. I'd say 95% of GMs would pick him as the one player they'd want for the future, and it would be a travesty to let him go. Obviously, he won't be traded this year, but the whole penny-pinching-until-2011 thing has me worried.

Here endeth my input/rants.

Poll

If we had to trade one arb-eligible Marlin, who could you live without?

0 recs | Comment 9 comments | Add your comment

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Comments

Hanley

we already missed the boat on a great deal for Hanley

if/when this stadium happens, he’ll get his money from somewhere… hopefully here

hard to believe 3 people voted for Hammer in that poll…. pretty silly if you ask me (and you should)

FutureFish.org

by Ramp on May 8, 2008 11:22 AM EDT reply reply 0 recs

Hanley: No
Hammer: Dude is Conine version 2.0 Anyone voting for him needs to have their membership revoked
Uggla: Tough call losing all those power numbers
Jacobs: As long as he stays healthy he is a lock to stay
Olsen: No

by tedhill on May 8, 2008 11:47 AM EDT reply reply 0 recs

I agree that Uggla is the most likely to be traded. His power numbers make him marketable, and we do have a potentially decent replacement coming up through the ranks. I definitely would like to see Hammer and Jake stick around. The issue with both of them is their ongoing injury problems, especially for being relatively young guys (I know they aren’t spring chickens, either). With Jake, it’s been a weird mix of injuries, but the re-occurring hand problem is troubling for a hitter. And with Hammer, back problems tend not to go away so easily, and for him to be struggling with this at this age already makes me a little nervous. Of course, this also makes both of them less appealing as trade candidates and perhaps more affordable to retain.

Yes, I have a prospect fetish. That's why I'm a Marlins fan.

by Sashimi on May 8, 2008 12:27 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

Uggla RF#s

I’ve never seen his actual Range Factor #s but, I’m sure they are weak. He commits a lot of errors at 2B and has poor (actual) range.

by Orestes Destrade on May 9, 2008 6:14 AM EDT reply reply 0 recs

Hanley

If Hanley sustains the numbers he is putting up, check that, if Hanley has a 30-50 season, he’s going to throw out at least an $8M + figure. Remember Ryan Howard got $10M his first year of arb. He did win the MVP but look at the numbers he’s put up so far this year. Hanley has a lot more staying power than Howard. I think Hanley alone will make between 7.5 and 9 million if he has a big year. With all the revenue sharing, we can absolutely absorb all these guys. I think if everyone pushes through arbitration, payroll will go up more like 15-20 million. Look for Alfredo Amezaga rumors to start flying around. He is considered a hot commodity around the league. Also look for the fish to try and shop Nolasco assuming he gives us some good starts. Uggs is a toss up for me. As long as he keeps his shoulders in and hands back, his average will climb and the power numbers go with it. I also don’t think Coughlan is ready yet.

by Long Live the Fish on May 9, 2008 1:15 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

Hey Matt

This management team has BRAINS. We signed Hanley. Let’s stop all the whining and enjoy the state of the team.

by SprintSTboy on May 11, 2008 10:14 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

brains?

There’s no denying that Beinfest doesn’t have brains. A few errors aside he’s been almost flawless in setting up these teams. The question has always been money and the will to spend it. Anyone would have to admit that this isn’t Loria’s strong point. This is especially true after trading an arbitration eligible Cabrera.

I’m pleasantly surprised. If anyone really saw this coming, they should go apply for a front office job.

by brickell on May 11, 2008 11:53 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

Whoa

I’m not whining, and I literally wrote that like two days before the Hanley signing news came out. I said if they had any brains, they would. And they did. So it’s all hunky dory.

See? All the team needed was a little motivation from me. You know Samson, Loria, and Beinfest read this site daily, right?

NoBiasBaseball.com

by Matt Wilson on May 11, 2008 11:14 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs