Chum Bucket

by craig on Apr 14, 2008 8:31 AM EDT in News Comment 24 comments

The Marlins have an off-day today after finishing their first road trip of the season at 4-2. Which ain't too bad if you ask me. If the Marlins can continue to win twice as many games on the road as they lose, this will be a very good season. I'm not counting on the trend continuing but hey, it is the projected path for now.

In the meantime it is time for another Chum Bucket. I don't really know what is going on today since I spent much of my weekend working on taxes. Nothing like waiting till the last second.

I do know this however: the whole NL East is off and there are only a couple of West Coast games scheduled in the NL. If you are really a glutton for punishment you can tune into ESPN later tonight and watch them gush all over the Red Sox. Personally, I will pass since I would rather watch the Dodgers and Pirates.

But this a Chum Bucket where you discuss anything that comes to mind and it doesn't have to be about baseball. Though baseball is the most popular topic.

Whatever you decide to do, have fun. And as always, Have a Great Day!

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On the ESPN front...

I bust on the network a lot for it's terrible bias, but this was especially bad.

I missed our game Friday night, in which we set a franchise record with 6 homers in a game. I recorded "Baseball Tonight" in an effort to see even one highlight of our game.

Not to be found.

In a one hour program, they spent half of it talking about the Yankees and the Sawx. I thought they would squeeze us into the last 5 minutes, but that was wishful thinking.

Their terrible announcers couldn't even give us a 30 second recap on their "program."

I'm ranting here, but come on. ESPN doesn't care about sports, only ratings. You suck.

NoBiasBaseball.com

by Matt Wilson on Apr 14, 2008 9:18 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

couple things

I agree espn has been getting on my nerves. I think michigan-Ohio state is a better rivalry anyway. Go blue! On the other hand, espnewshd is incredible. Been waiting for years for those words to materialize and for those of us that have directv, it is definitely worth the price of admission so to speak.
Marlins: I love mark wiley and I think he's going to have miller sent down soon. This team in the next couple years will have some incredible pitching talent and offense.
I may be in the minority but uggla needs to be benched. He cannot hit for avg and andino deserves a shot if he can. Also, amezaga I think needs to be an everyday play. He's a sparkplug and is perfect for the leadoff and Jacobs should never get a day off. Call me crazy.

by GMFB on Apr 14, 2008 9:31 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

GMFB

You're crazy. Do I have to remind you how many games Jacobs has missed the last couple games due to injuries? He needs days off every now and then. Yesterday was a perfect scenario because he get's a two day rest, plus the pitcher was a lefty, which Helms usually does well against.

As for Uggla, yeah a lot of us would like to see him benched but it's really just wishful thinking. He's contributed too much over the last couple years for Fredi or the organization to make that move. We should not talk about it as if it's a real option.

For Andrew Miller, it's a tough call. He seems just on threshold. I'd give him one, maybe two more starts to see if he can improve. And if he does need to be sent down, DON"T bring up Chris Volstad. We have already had to rush pitchers and Volstad is our number one asset. Let him have a good year in AA and hopefully he can tear up the big leagues in 2009.

Finally, I like Alfredo Amezaga in the 8th spot. In the NL, you need the right type of player for that batting spot. Amezaga is it. We shouldn't try to fix what isn't broken. He works the pitchers, gets on base, and ignites the offense in that part of the lineup. The lineup is more balanced with him at number eight. Trust me, if he moved to leadoff, the back end of our lineup would be a black hole where no offense can thrive.

by tedhill on Apr 14, 2008 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes

I understand sitting players due to injury problems, but I HATE catering to injury prone players. One of my favorite strategies in fantasy drafts is to avoid those players I know to be injury prone (seems to work pretty well). If the guy cant stay healthy get rid of him (regardless of the upside). I realize this sounds stupid considering all the young pitching we have significantly destroyed, but we can afford to hang on to them due to the mass of talent we have.
Uggla can't hit. Yes, he gets doubles and homers, but he needs to get on base. This is a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately climate, and Uggla can't do squat. I admit he's good in the field, but if you've read moneyball, you know how insignificant defense is (hence the reason Hanley is still at SS). I really am just curious to see how Andino would do as an everyday addition, that's all. Could be something great. Miller scares me. He may have more talent than Hurk, but he needs to be sent down. I am in agreement and would allow him one or two more starts (read losses) to see what his deal is.

by GMFB on Apr 14, 2008 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry...

I guess this would mean Hermida and De Aza would be gone as well, but I'm willing to forgive one injury early in the career. De Aza frightens me cause he seems to be a perfect leadoff and cannot stay healthy. Probably should hit the weight room.

by GMFB on Apr 14, 2008 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn't say Jacobs is injury prone. Once is an accident, twice is a trend, three times and it becomes an established fact. He's had two seasons where he has missed a lot of time due to injuries. I may understand your argument if Jacobs gets a day off every week, but we have played 12 games and that was his first off day. Even if he sits twice a month, he will play 150 out of 162, that is plenty.

As for Uggla, I wouldn't argue against saying he should be benched, but I'm just being realistic. He will have to continue to be this bad for a while for the team to even think about benching him this year. The fans will just have to swallow our tongues and bear it. He will still put up good HR and RBI numbers. Also, Chris Coghlan will be our 2009 starting 2B, so it's not a long term issue.

by tedhill on Apr 14, 2008 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Defense

Turns out that defense actually is important. In recent years Billy Beane has actually been emphasizing good defense. Moneyball wasn't about valuing OBP and SLG, it was about taking advantage of undervalued skills. At the time, OBP was increadibly undervalued. More recently, partly as a result of Moneyball, fielding has been undervalued.

I actually really like both Uggla and Andino. I don't think we can bench Uggla based on 2 weeks of play. I'm confident that he will recover from his early season OBP problems. Last year his OPS was over .800, which is really tremendous for a second baseman. The position he plays can't be discounted when evaluating Uggla. I would be more in favor of putting Hanley at third and letting andino play short, but this won't happen...

by Y08Marlin on Apr 14, 2008 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I HATE the Hanley to 3B idea. His best defensive skill is his range. Move him to third and you limit what he can do.

by tedhill on Apr 14, 2008 9:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hurk

Anybody know how Vandenhurk has done since getting demoted? What's a good site for keeping up with our minor league teams?

by The Architect on Apr 14, 2008 10:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

On the marlinsbaseball.com forums (specifically in the"Minor League Baseball" forum), they post a daily recap of our minor league clubs. It really just gives the scores and the lines for notable players. I believe VandenHurk pitched yesterday. He did well until giving up a three run homer in the 6th. Those were the only runs he allowed.

by tedhill on Apr 14, 2008 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You can also go to the Mudcats site

If you click on game recaps they go into more detail about the game. Also the season stats are on the same page.

Carolina Mudcats News

by craig on Apr 15, 2008 12:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Uggla

The problem with Danny is that he is the least suited of any #2 hitter in the major leagues to be hitting second. His OBP is terrible.

He can do only two things, either hit a homer or strikeout. I guarantee he leads baseball in K's this year, even if he does flirt with 30 homers.

I don't think Uggla should be benched, just moved back in the lineup. That will take some pressure off and give him more RBI opportunities. He is really one of the most impatient hitters I have ever seen.

My ideal lineup would go something like this:
Hanley
Fredo (Switch)
Hermida (Lefty)
Hammer (Righty)
Jake (Lefty)
Uggla
Cantu
Treanor/Rabelo
Pitcher

Anyway, that's wishful thinking I suppose...

Also, Drew Miller. I agree that he needs to be in the minors, but the only issue I have is who do we bring up? I don't want to see Volstad in a Fish uni this early. And I certainly don't want to see the likes of Barone or Seddon in the big leagues. I'm afraid that right now our organization's cupboard is bare in the pitching department (Thanks, Girardi).

NoBiasBaseball.com

by Matt Wilson on Apr 14, 2008 12:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

My Proposed Lineup

1. Hanley Ramirez
2. Jeremy Hermida
3. Mike Jacobs
4. Josh Willingham
5. Dan Uggla
6. Jorge Cantu
7. Rabelo/Treanor
8. Amezaga
9. Pitcher

Yeah the lefty's are back to back at 2nd and 3rd but so what? This lineup would use most everyone to their best value as a hitter. Hanley, it's pretty obvious. He will be protected by our next best pure hitter, Hermida, who also has a good on base percentage. Jacobs, Hammer, and Uggla will drive in runs. Cantu and the catcher will give us whatever they can. And Amezaga will work pitchers and ignite rallies from the bottom of the order.

by tedhill on Apr 14, 2008 2:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Just so I have this straight...

Quotes in this thread about Uggla:
"needs to be benched"
"he needs to get on base"
"can't do squat"

Quotes in this thread about Amezaga:
"needs to be an everyday play"
"a sparkplug and is perfect for the leadoff"
"gets on base"
"ignites the offense"

Uggla's OBA: .329
Amezaga's OBA: .319

We're talking a career 108 OPS+ vs. a career 75. 75!

Yes, Uggla strikes out at a rate that keeps his average lower than it can/should be, and that limits his productivity. But for the love of god, a guy who just hits doubles and homers should be benched? BENCHED?!? Because we have too many extra-base hits and don't want any more? Because it's way more exciting to see Amezaga bunt for a hit?

Obviously he doesn't have the OBA to be an ideal hitter at the top of the order. But if I've said it once, I've said it a million times: the #2 spot is the one place you can leverage strikeouts to prevent double plays. Take two guys who are the same except their K-rate, and you'd *prefer* the more strikeout-prone hitter at #2. But we're not talking about two guys who are the same: we're talking about a guy who slugs upwards of .500 versus a guy who had 26 XBHs in 400 ABs last year.

Give me an empty-OBA option to put atop the order and actually make the lineup better and maybe I'll listen, but if the argument is Uggla vs. Amezaga, it's absolutely absurdly laughable.

by dan 2.0 on Apr 14, 2008 5:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Well done! Great argument.

by tedhill on Apr 14, 2008 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Indeed, well played.

by Y08Marlin on Apr 14, 2008 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Right, but..

The problem here is that Alfredo's numbers are too small of a sample size to glean much from. He's never been an everyday player, so his career numbers can't be seen as gospel. Also, these guys really are apples and oranges so it's not a direct comparison of the two.

A few things:
Uggla has never slugged over .500, his highest was .480 in 2006
Uggla this season: .191/.255/.383, 4 walks and 14 strikeouts in 47 AB
Alfredo this season: .346/.485/.538, 7 walks and 1 strikeout in 26 AB

Again, the small sample size limits the reliability of these numbers, but 7 walks in 26 at-bats is pretty damn good.

I just happen to think that we have a team full of #5 hitters, with the exception of Hanley. If Fredo can continue to draw walks and get on base, plus his speed out there, he can be a good asset at the top of the order.

And it's not a slight on Uggla, because I think he will get on track eventually and lock in around .250/.320/.470. I like Danny. He just swings at everything. I think you've gotta move him back. I don't care about leveraging strikeouts, I just want a guy with an OBP above .320 hitting second. If Fredo can't be the guy, then oh well.

NoBiasBaseball.com

by Matt Wilson on Apr 14, 2008 7:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Samples

You're not going to tell me to care about 26 ABs if you don't care about 977.

But ok, let's take the samples up a notch. Let's throw in minor league numbers. Since this is pretty stupid anyway, I'm not going to bother proxying ABs but just look at BB/AB rates.

Between the majors and minors, Uggla has amassed 3,342 ABs compared to Amezaga's 3,260. Not just bigger but pretty darn close too; must be fate.

Uggla's walkrate? 9.27%
Amezaga's rate? 9.29%

Where is the evidence, or even the suggestion, that Amezaga will prove to be a high OBA hitter? Not in his minor league numbers, not in his major league numbers. One might guess it exists only in those 26 ABs this year.

But then, you're much too smart to actually want to act on such a sample... aren't you?

by dan 2.0 on Apr 14, 2008 8:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

site redesign but still no edit button...

That should be "I'm not going to bother proxying PAs" of course.

by dan 2.0 on Apr 14, 2008 8:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Missed my point

Of course 26 AB means nothing. I'm not saying that this years' numbers will predict future performance, but you can't deny that Fredo is hot at the plate right now. He's getting on base practically half the time and leading the team in walks.. without being an everyday player. I think he should get some more starts while he's hot and if he cools off, so be it.

NoBiasBaseball.com

by Matt Wilson on Apr 14, 2008 10:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Streaks

The Book showed fairly conclusively that hot/cold streaks are a myth (which is to say, non-predictive).

by dan 2.0 on Apr 14, 2008 11:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

tax day picks

21698

jacobs

jacobs: 2 HR

by stlcardinalsfang on Apr 15, 2008 8:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

and they said...

that there aren’t any marlins’ fans and the ones that exist aren’t very knowledgeable. I think this debate puts that to bed.
I must admit I am still weary of fredi. I’m not sure whether to have faith in his decisionmaking or critical. (though I guess one can be both.) I just hope the vets on the team can make an atmospheric impact on these team and possibly aid a young manager in his tough spots.

Question: how has soriano faired throughout his career as a leadoff and does this indicate anything for hanley?