Dissecting Ichthyomancy

I first played Ichthyomancy on May 17, nailed two of my three picks, and was everafter hooked.  In the six weeks since, I have compiled 29 points and have moved toward the middle of the pack.

Catching Colombo and the others ahead of me may be a tall order.  However I suspect Ichthyomancy is a game that goes to the steady, not the swift.  If I can remain steady, I have a chance to prevail.

I have compiled five points on attendance, 13 on PG and 11 on AAB.  In the 33 games played, that equates to 15% on attendance, 39% on POG and 33% on AAB.  

More below.  You have been warned.

On player of the game, I have stayed within a narrow group of players.  I have picked 10 players over the 33 games.  I have picked Hermida, Jacobs and Willis six times each.  I have taken Cabrera five times, Ramirez three, Johnson 2, and Nolasco, Uggla and Moehler once each.  Here is the success rate with each:

Moehler 100% (1/1)
Nolasco 100% (1/1)
Willis 83% (5/6)
Johnson 50% (1/2)
Cabrera 40% (2/5)
Jacobs 33% (2/6)
Ramirez 33% (1/3)
Olsen 0% (0/1)
Uggla 0% (0/1)
Hermida 0% (0/6)

Note to self:  Its' time to twelve-step the Hermida habit.

AAB does not exactly fit so neatly into nice clean categories.  However, I can identify some trends.

Home Runs.

I have picked a named player to hit a home run five times.  I am 2-for-3 on the Jacobs picks, and I drew a blank picking Willis and Cabrera once each.  I vainly picked a Florida walk-off home run in one game.  I have twice picked team or game home run totals, both without success.

In summary, I am 2-for-8 picking a home run related AAB (25%) - and both hits were picking Jacobs to go deep.

Individual Pitching Performance.

I have picked an individual pitching target five times - three of those have hit for me for a 60% success rate.  Three of my first four picks back in mid-May were individual pitching performance targets (Olsen, Kazmir and Olsen respectively) - and two of those came through.  The other two involve Willis and were identical - H+W<8.  One of those picks hit.  I have not picked an individual pitching perforance target in three weeks - time to rething that strategy.

Individual Hitting - Non-Home Run

Five times I have picked an individual hitting target not involving home runs.  Only one has been successful (20%) - picking Florida to stop the Adrian Gonzales hitting streak on June 10.  The others involving total bases for Hermida and Cabrera, an extra-base hit for Willis (note to self - drop the Willis offensive AAB picks) and a multiple hit game for Ramirez.

Team or Game Hit/Run Totals.

Twelve times I have picked some variation on team or game hit and/or run totals -- four have been successful for a 33% success rate.  There have been no real pattern here other than I am perfect with picking (a) the exact number of runs an opponent will score and (b) Florida outscoring the opponent by at least a multiple of some number.  

Game Statistics

I have picked one game to go extra innings and one game to last more than three hours.  Both of these missed.