What's wrong with Dontrelle?

by wiggins on May 8, 2006 10:54 AM EDT in News Comment 7 comments

Anything?

I was just talking to a buddy of mine (not a Marlins fan - but he has the A-train on his fantasy team) and he asked me that question - except he wasn't as polite about it.

I know that I (and my friend) should cut Dontrelle some serious slack, as he should have won the Cy Young last year, and he is an amazing pitcher, is a joy to watch and has actually pitched fairly well at times this year... in fact his April over all was pretty good.

But this May has been pretty awful. Two starts - 10.50 ERA.

Am I over-reacting? It's just two starts. I don't know... his ERA has steadily risen with each start of the season, and with what I have seen he just hasn't seemed quite right. Is the team getting to him, perhaps?

The answer I gave my friend was this - so much of Dontrelle's game seems to come from his own inner energy, and the atmosphere of losing on the team MAY actually be getting to him. That is obviously going to be true, to a certain extent, of every player - but I have never really seen anyone (especially a pitcher) who seems to - every game - bring so much energy to the field and really feed off of it.

That HAS to be hard to maintain when you are losing constantly, and know there is not much of a chance to win even if you pitch well (witness the one win even when he pitched decently).

I hope this does not sound like I am saying anything bad about Dontrelle and I certainly do not wish to put him down in any way, shape or form. I also hope that these last two starts are a mere aberration against two good offensive teams (the Phills and Cards can ruin any pitcher's day). Hell - even in his phenomenal 2005, Willis had an off month (he just waited till July for that), and May has been typically an off month for him (lifetime 1.49 WHIP)...

Maybe I am just over-reacting. I hope so. I hope he makes me eat my damn words and makes me look like a big fat idiot (which isn't hard to do, because I am one). But I have to say I am concerned. I have never watched an athlete to whom fun, happiness and energy means more - which is what makes watching him SUCH a joy - and now he is in a situation where things probably won't be very positive for a little while.

I sincerely hope that he doesn't let that bother him over the course of the season.

Leave your comments and tell me I'm an idiot.

Please.

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You're and idiot

but you may have something of a point.

One thing that I am concerned about is our defense. You see, in spite of his greatness, Dontrelle is not the best strikeout pitcher. Not bad, but he's really at his best when drawing early contact and getting ground balls. With the deterioration of our infield defense (hey, it was nearly 100% Gold Glove for a while) I think two things have happened.

One, his ABHIP (average on balls hit into play) is probably up (I'll double check that). While some argue that is mostly luck anyway, it seems that it is at least partly dependant on the skill of the defense behind you... probably GREATLY dependant on it.

When you then consider that Dontrelle knows this, it's not a stretch to imagine that he'sm adjusting fo rthis, and trying to strike out more people, leading to more walks and mistakes.

These are just hunches, but I'll look up the ABHIP to at least try and check one of these facts.

Baseball > Med School

by fishfan24 on May 8, 2006 9:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yup

I was right. Willis' ABIP is .282. Still not bad, but about 6% higher than his career average, and 9% higher than his career best last year, of .259.

By the way, since this year's was not published on baseball prospectus, I used my own calculation of the BABIP stat, the formula was (H-HR)/(AB-K-HR)

Seems like part of what is wrong with Willis might be the defense, but I'll check one more stat before I decide that. That's DER (Defensive Efficiency Rating).

Well, after researching it, I'm not sure that's quite enough. We're currently 19th among MLB with 0.702. Last year, we were 27th in MLB with 0.684. So that doesn't seem to be enough to answer it.

Well Nate Silver from Baseball Prospectus has a possible answer, one that Peter Gammons has hinted at it previously. [warning you might need to pay to read that].

Nate says that:

"when everyone from Will Carroll to Peter Gammons had hinted that some of the pitchers involved in the WBC may be less than their usual selves, I paid attention... The relievers have emerged relatively unscathed--sixteen of the thirty-two relievers in our study have outperformed their PECOTA, and sixteen have underperformed it. But the starting pitchers have been brutalized. Nineteen of the 26 starters--nearly three-fourths of our sample--have underperformed their PECOTA. In most cases, they haven't even come close to their projection."

He performs a nice little test for this using PECTOA, which is a measure of the projected performance based on past statistics and similar players. The fact that as a group they have underperformed that badly might say something.

Maybe the WBC was the problem, as Mike pointed about before:

"I'd much rather have Cabrera play in this thing than Willis. I know it's a huge honor and all, but it seems more likely to throw off the pitchers than the hitters."

Could mike42 have predicted this all along?

Baseball > Med School

by fishfan24 on May 8, 2006 10:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

LONG LIVE FISHFAN!!!

down with wiggins! give fishfan the keys to the throne!

I can't believe Mike doesn't remember Ocala - he was having a GREAT time!

by jrfelix on May 10, 2006 12:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The good thing is

You would think that whatever effect the WBC had, it would eventually wear off.

Baseball > Med School

by fishfan24 on May 8, 2006 10:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Fishfan -

Thanks for the analysis - that makes a lot of sense all around and was exactly what I was looking for. I knew I was an idiot and there were better reasons. I was just too tired (and lazy) to get there. Thanks.

You have given me hope as well. Maybe he will come around and round back into shape from the WBC - we'll see. That would be nice.

Taking the fun out of it - for everyone.

by wiggins on May 8, 2006 11:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs